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    <title>DEV Community: Jaroslav Šmarda</title>
    <description>The latest articles on DEV Community by Jaroslav Šmarda (@jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c).</description>
    <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c</link>
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      <title>DEV Community: Jaroslav Šmarda</title>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c</link>
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    <item>
      <title>“The Market” Isn't One Thing: Watching Sectors Take Turns</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2026 11:03:51 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/the-market-isnt-one-thing-watching-sectors-take-turns-2293</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/the-market-isnt-one-thing-watching-sectors-take-turns-2293</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;"The market was up 20% this year" is one of the most compressed sentences in finance. It blends technology companies, oil producers, &lt;br&gt;
banks, utilities, and drugmakers into a single number — as if they all moved together.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;They don't. Some years one corner of the market carries everything; other years that same corner drags. Traders call the pattern "sector &lt;br&gt;
rotation." Let's pull the eleven sectors apart and watch who led, who lagged, and whether last year's winner tells you anything about &lt;br&gt;
next year's.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want to try this yourself? The &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=the-market-isnt-one-thing-watching-sectors-take-turns&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;EODHD MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is what &lt;br&gt;
pulled the data above — connect it to Claude and ask your own questions (affiliate link).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Pull the eleven sectors apart
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Use the eodhd MCP to get yearly returns for the
eleven SPDR sector ETFs from 2021 to today, and
show the best and worst sector each year.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Best and worst sector, year by year:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2021 — Energy (XLE) +53.3% · Communication (XLC) +16.0%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2022 — Energy (XLE) +64.3% · Communication (XLC) −37.6%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2023 — Technology (XLK) +56.0% · Utilities (XLU) −7.2%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2024 — Communication (XLC) +34.7% · Materials (XLB) +0.2%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2025 — Technology (XLK) +24.6% · Consumer Staples (XLP) +1.5%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2026 so far — Energy (XLE) +42.8% · Consumer Discretionary (XLY) −7.0%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Look at 2022 alone: the best sector gained 64%, the worst lost 38%. That's a gap of more than 100 percentage points, within the same &lt;br&gt;
"market" and the same twelve months. Any single number describing "how the market did" that year was an average of two completely &lt;br&gt;
different experiences.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Does last year's winner tell you anything?
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;For each year, where did the previous year's best
and worst sector finish the following year?
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Last year's best sector, ranked the next year (out of 11):&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Energy, best in 2021 → #1 in 2022&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Energy, best in 2022 → #9 in 2023&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Technology, best in 2023 → #5 in 2024&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Communication, best in 2024 → #2 in 2025&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Technology, best in 2025 → #2 in 2026 so far&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Last year's worst sector, ranked the next year:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Communication, worst in 2021 → #11 in 2022 (worst again)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Communication, worst in 2022 → #2 in 2023, up 52.8%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Utilities, worst in 2023 → #4 in 2024&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Materials, worst in 2024 → #7 in 2025&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Consumer Staples, worst in 2025 → #6 in 2026 so far&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;There's no clean rule here. Energy won two years running, then fell to ninth. Communication finished last two years in a row, then &lt;br&gt;
jumped to second with a 53% gain. Across these five handoffs, last year's winners averaged roughly fourth place the following year, and &lt;br&gt;
last year's losers averaged sixth, which is about where a random draw would put them.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Five handoffs is far too few to call that a pattern. What the table shows clearly is how fast the order reshuffles, and how badly "buy &lt;br&gt;
whatever led last year" or "avoid whatever lagged" could have gone in the wrong year. Chasing 2022's winner meant riding Energy into a &lt;br&gt;
flat 2023. Abandoning 2022's loser meant missing Communication's rebound.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A few things about this comparison deserve naming.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Calendar years are an arbitrary way to slice the data. Measure the same eleven sectors from July to July, or quarter by quarter, and the &lt;br&gt;
winners and losers would shuffle differently — some of 2022's 100-point gap between Energy and Communication came from where January 1st &lt;br&gt;
happened to fall. The pattern of sectors taking turns holds up; the exact rankings depend on where you draw the lines.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The window is also short: under six years, five year-to-year handoffs. That's enough to show how much the order moves, and nowhere near &lt;br&gt;
enough to prove whether it moves randomly or follows a cycle. People who study sector rotation seriously look at decades of data, &lt;br&gt;
alongside interest rates and the business cycle, and still argue about how predictable it is.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And a sector ETF is less diversified than its name suggests. XLK, XLC, and XLY are each dominated by a handful of giant companies, so &lt;br&gt;
"Technology had a great year" can mostly mean "two or three stocks had a great year." Treat each line in the table as the story of a few &lt;br&gt;
heavyweights, not of an entire industry. Not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the thirty-second article in the series &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="https://medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Acodetodeploy/unlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, and it takes apart a number every other article &lt;br&gt;
has quietly leaned on: "the market."&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts split one index into eleven sectors, then checked whether the leaders stayed in front.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's what they found: &lt;strong&gt;in 2022, the best sector gained 64% and the worst lost 38% — a gap of more than 100 percentage points &lt;br&gt;
inside the same market, in the same year. And the sector that finished last that year finished second the next.&lt;/strong&gt; "The market" is an &lt;br&gt;
average of very different stories, and the order of those stories keeps reshuffling. Knowing which one led last year tells you &lt;br&gt;
surprisingly little about which one leads next.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If this made you curious, the &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=the-market-isnt-one-thing-watching-sectors-take-turns&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is free to &lt;br&gt;
try — &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; walks you through &lt;br&gt;
it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;← Part 31: &lt;a href="https://jaroslav-smarda.medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Abefore-you-panic-about-insider-selling-check-the-code-2524e2e7d45b" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Before You Panic About Insider Selling, Check the Code&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>python</category>
      <category>datascience</category>
      <category>finance</category>
      <category>investing</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Before You Panic About Insider Selling, Check the Code</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 11:19:10 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/before-you-panic-about-insider-selling-check-the-code-3b7h</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/before-you-panic-about-insider-selling-check-the-code-3b7h</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;Every time a company's CEO or CFO sells a big chunk of stock, someone posts about it — usually with a headline implying the insider &lt;br&gt;
knows something bad is coming. SEC Form 4 filings, the disclosures that trigger those headlines, are public and easy to pull. Reading &lt;br&gt;
them correctly is a different matter.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Let's pull real Form 4 filings and see what the raw numbers actually say, once you check the fine print.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want to try this yourself? The &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=before-you-panic-about-insider-selling-check-the-code&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;EODHD MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is what &lt;br&gt;
pulled the data above — connect it to Claude and ask your own questions (affiliate link).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Pull the raw filings
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Use the eodhd MCP to get Amazon's most recent
Form 4 insider filings.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The last ten filings include: CEO Andy Jassy sold $5,180,213 worth of Amazon stock on August 21, 2026, across four separate &lt;br&gt;
transactions. Executive Chair Jeff Bezos disposed of 415,580 shares over two filings on August 25–26. AWS CEO Matt Garman, CFO Brian &lt;br&gt;
Olsavsky, and three other senior executives all show sales in the same window, several exceeding $1 million each.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Read that paragraph alone, and it sounds like the entire leadership team is heading for the exits at once — millions of dollars in &lt;br&gt;
stock, sold within days of each other, right around the same price level.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Ask what the transaction codes actually mean
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Check the transaction codes and footnotes on those
filings — were these discretionary decisions?
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Every single "sell" transaction in that batch — Jassy's, Garman's, Olsavsky's, Reynolds's, Zapolsky's, Herrington's — carries &lt;br&gt;
transaction code "S" alongside a footnote citing a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, each one adopted months before the sale: Jassy's plan dates &lt;br&gt;
to November 14, 2025; Garman's to May 4, 2026. These aren't decisions made the week of the sale. They're pre-scheduled disposals, set up &lt;br&gt;
long in advance specifically so they can't be timed around inside information.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Bezos's 415,580 "disposed" shares carry an entirely different code: "G," for gift. Price per share: $0. Total value: $0. He didn't &lt;br&gt;
sell anything — he donated the shares to non-profit organizations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Every alarming number in the first prompt turned out to be something other than what it looked like. Not one of the ten filings in this &lt;br&gt;
sample was a same-week, no-notice, "I know something you don't" sale.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This sample — ten filings, one company, one narrow window — doesn't prove that insider selling never signals anything.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Rule 10b5-1 plans exist precisely because &lt;em&gt;some&lt;/em&gt; insider selling would otherwise be suspicious, or at least look that way; they're a &lt;br&gt;
legal shield, not a guarantee of pure intent. An executive can still adopt, modify, or cancel a plan when they choose to — and a plan &lt;br&gt;
set up right before bad news becomes public knowledge has drawn real regulatory scrutiny in other cases, just not in the filings checked &lt;br&gt;
here. The absence of same-week discretionary selling in this batch is a fact about this batch, not a law of insider trading.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It's also worth noting what this data doesn't answer: whether the &lt;em&gt;volume&lt;/em&gt; of scheduled selling itself means anything — a plan selling 5,&lt;br&gt;
000 shares a month reads very differently from one liquidating a large stake all at once, even though both would carry the identical &lt;br&gt;
10b5-1 footnote. Reading the code correctly is the first step, not the whole analysis. Not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the thirty-first article in the series &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="https://medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Acodetodeploy/unlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, and it closes the loop this series opened with &lt;br&gt;
SEC EDGAR back in Part 18: the raw filing has the truth, but only if you read past the headline number.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts pulled the alarming version first, then checked what the codes actually said.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's what they found: &lt;strong&gt;every one of the ten Form 4 filings checked — millions of dollars in apparent selling — turned out to be &lt;br&gt;
either a Rule 10b5-1 plan set up months in advance, or, in Bezos's case, a charitable gift worth $0 in proceeds.&lt;/strong&gt; None of it was a &lt;br&gt;
same-week decision made on fresh information. The filing told the truth the whole time. The headline just skipped the footnote.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If this made you curious, the &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=before-you-panic-about-insider-selling-check-the-code&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is free to &lt;br&gt;
try — &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; walks you through &lt;br&gt;
it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;← Part 30: &lt;a href="https://medium.com/@jaroslav-smarda/&lt;br&gt;%0Athe-volatility-crush-what-happens-to-iv-the-day-after-earnings-ee0d59f6ce5f" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Volatility Crush: What Happens to IV the Day After Earnings&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>eodhd</category>
      <category>mcp</category>
      <category>finance</category>
      <category>datascience</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Volatility Crush: What Happens to IV the Day After Earnings</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 11:09:58 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/the-volatility-crush-what-happens-to-iv-the-day-after-earnings-1emn</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/the-volatility-crush-what-happens-to-iv-the-day-after-earnings-1emn</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;Implied volatility isn't constant — Part 15 already showed it shifts across strikes on the same day. It also shifts across &lt;em&gt;time&lt;/em&gt;, and &lt;br&gt;
nowhere more dramatically than around a single, predictable event: earnings.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Before a company reports, nobody knows what the numbers will say, and options pricing reflects that uncertainty with elevated IV. The &lt;br&gt;
moment the report lands, the uncertainty resolves — whatever the numbers are, they're no longer unknown — and IV tends to collapse, &lt;br&gt;
often within hours. Traders call it the "volatility crush." Let's find a real one.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want to try this yourself? The &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=the-volatility-crush-what-happens-to-iv-the-day-after-earnings&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;EODHD MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is &lt;br&gt;
what pulled the data above — connect it to Claude and ask your own questions (affiliate link).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Find a real earnings crush
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Use the eodhd MCP to find AAPL's most recent
earnings date, then get implied volatility for the
near-the-money call before and after the report.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;AAPL reported on July 30, 2026 (after market close) — EPS $2.02 vs. a $1.88 estimate, a 7.4% positive surprise. The near-the-money &lt;br&gt;
$335 call, expiring August 21:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;July 29 (day before): IV 30.72%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;July 31 (day after): IV 27.73%&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;A drop of 3 percentage points — about a 10% relative decline — in a single trading day, on an option that didn't even expire for &lt;br&gt;
another three weeks.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The earnings beat was good news. AAPL's stock fell 7.4% the next day anyway — a move already covered back in Part 11 of this series. IV &lt;br&gt;
fell too, despite that sharp move, because it isn't pricing "will this go up or down." It's pricing "how much don't we know yet" — and &lt;br&gt;
the moment the report landed, that uncertainty was gone, whichever direction the stock went.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Is 10% a big crush, or a small one?
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Is a 10% relative drop in implied volatility a
dramatic earnings crush, or a mild one?
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;It's on the mild end. The sharpest volatility crushes usually show up in options expiring within days of the report — weekly &lt;br&gt;
contracts where the earnings-day uncertainty makes up most of their remaining time value, so resolving it can cut IV by 30% or more in a &lt;br&gt;
single session. This $335 call had 20 days left even after the report — three more weeks of ordinary market uncertainty still baked into &lt;br&gt;
the price, diluting how much of its IV was ever earnings-specific to begin with.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The lesson isn't "the crush didn't happen." It's that how much crush you see depends on how much of an option's remaining life the event &lt;br&gt;
actually accounted for — a fact this series has now touched twice: Part 15 showed IV varies by strike; this shows it varies by how close &lt;br&gt;
expiration sits to the event you're pricing for.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two things make this one measurement messier than the clean number suggests.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The $335 strike started exactly at-the-money on July 29, but AAPL's 7.4% drop pushed the stock away from it — by August 3, that same &lt;br&gt;
strike was roughly 10% out-of-the-money. Part 15 already showed IV varies by moneyness, not just by time. So some of the 3-point decline &lt;br&gt;
is genuine earnings crush, and some of it is just this contract drifting into a lower-IV part of the skew as the stock moved beneath it. &lt;br&gt;
This data can't cleanly separate the two effects from each other.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;And this is one earnings report, for one company, with one particular kind of surprise (a beat, followed by a drop for unrelated &lt;br&gt;
reasons). A report that missed estimates, or one where price and expectations moved together, could show a different-shaped crush &lt;br&gt;
entirely. Treat the mechanism — uncertainty resolves, so IV falls — as reliable; treat any single measured number, including this one, &lt;br&gt;
as a snapshot of how it played out this one time. Not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the thirtieth article in the series &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="https://medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Acodetodeploy/unlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, and it revisits a stock this series has met &lt;br&gt;
before. Part 11 watched AAPL's options amplify a 7.4% price drop. This time, the same event, seen through implied volatility instead of &lt;br&gt;
price.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts found the crush, then sized it honestly.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's where it lands: &lt;strong&gt;the near-the-money AAPL call lost 3 points of implied volatility — about 10% — in the single session after &lt;br&gt;
earnings, despite the stock itself moving sharply.&lt;/strong&gt; That's a real but modest crush, smaller than a weekly option would have shown, &lt;br&gt;
because three weeks of ordinary uncertainty were still baked into the price alongside the earnings-specific kind. IV didn't fall because &lt;br&gt;
the news was good or bad. It fell because, either way, nobody had to wonder anymore.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If this made you curious, the &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=the-volatility-crush-what-happens-to-iv-the-day-after-earnings&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is &lt;br&gt;
free to try — &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; walks you &lt;br&gt;
through it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>eodhd</category>
      <category>mcp</category>
      <category>finance</category>
      <category>options</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>One Number, Two Meanings: What Beta Actually Measures</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 10:50:55 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/one-number-two-meanings-what-beta-actually-measures-2c26</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/one-number-two-meanings-what-beta-actually-measures-2c26</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;Beta is one of the most quoted numbers in finance — "this stock has a beta of 1.5" gets said constantly, usually as shorthand for &lt;br&gt;
"risky" or "volatile." But beta isn't actually a measure of how much a stock moves. It's a measure of how much a stock moves &lt;em&gt;relative &lt;br&gt;
to the market&lt;/em&gt; — and that distinction turns out to matter more than the number itself.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Let's ask for a stock's beta, and then ask what it would take to prove that number means what everyone assumes it means.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want to try this yourself? The &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=one-number-two-meanings-what-beta-actually-measures&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;EODHD MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is what pulled &lt;br&gt;
the data above — connect it to Claude and ask your own questions (affiliate link).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Ask for the number, then build it yourself
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Use the eodhd MCP to get AMZN's beta, then
calculate it independently from five years
of daily returns against SPY.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;EODHD's reported beta: 1.443. Calculating it independently from 1,254 trading days of AMZN and SPY daily returns: 1.491.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The two numbers are close — both say AMZN moves roughly 1.4 to 1.5 times as much as the market — but they aren't identical, even &lt;br&gt;
though they're trying to measure the same thing.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Beta of 1.45-ish means: on days the market moves 1%, AMZN has historically moved about 1.45% in the same direction. That's the headline. &lt;br&gt;
The gap between 1.443 and 1.491 is where the interesting part starts.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Change the window, get a different answer
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Recalculate beta using 1 year, 2 years, and
5 years of daily returns, and compare.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;1-year beta: 1.432&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2-year beta: 1.353&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;5-year beta: 1.491&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;EODHD's reported figure: 1.443&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Four numbers, all claiming to answer "what's AMZN's beta?", ranging from 1.353 to 1.491 — a spread of nearly 14%. None of them are &lt;br&gt;
wrong. Beta isn't a fixed property of a stock, like its ticker or its founding date. It's a statistical estimate, and every estimate &lt;br&gt;
depends on choices someone made: which benchmark counts as "the market," how far back to look, and how often to sample returns. Change &lt;br&gt;
any of those choices, and the "same" number moves.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That's the second meaning hiding behind the first. Beta answers "how sensitive is this stock to the market" — but only after you've &lt;br&gt;
quietly answered a second question first: sensitive according to which window, against which benchmark. Skip that second question, and &lt;br&gt;
the first one has no single right answer.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Even after picking a window and a benchmark, beta has real limits worth naming.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It's backward-looking by construction — every number above describes how AMZN &lt;em&gt;has&lt;/em&gt; moved relative to the market, not how it &lt;em&gt;will&lt;/em&gt;. A &lt;br&gt;
company's risk profile can shift for reasons beta can't see coming: a new business line, a management change, a shift in what investors &lt;br&gt;
expect from the stock next. The 5-year beta of 1.491 already blends together very different chapters of Amazon's story, smoothed into &lt;br&gt;
one coefficient that no single day of that history actually looked like.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Beta also assumes a straightforward linear relationship — that AMZN moves proportionally with the market in both directions, up and down &lt;br&gt;
alike. In practice, many stocks move more sharply on the downside than the upside (or vice versa), a pattern a single beta number &lt;br&gt;
averages away rather than reveals. If you want to know how a stock behaves specifically during market crashes, beta calculated across &lt;br&gt;
all conditions isn't answering that question, even though it's often used as if it does. Not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the twenty-eighth article in the series &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="https://medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Acodetodeploy/unlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, continuing where Part 26 left off — from "do two &lt;br&gt;
things move together" to "how much does one thing move relative to another."&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts pulled one reported number, then rebuilt it four different ways.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's where it lands: &lt;strong&gt;AMZN's beta ranged from 1.353 to 1.491 depending only on which window you chose — a 14% spread hiding behind &lt;br&gt;
a statistic most people quote as if it were a single, fixed fact.&lt;/strong&gt; Beta isn't wrong to trust. It's incomplete to trust without asking &lt;br&gt;
which beta, over what period, against what benchmark. The number was never the whole answer. The choices behind it were.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If this made you curious, the &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=one-number-two-meanings-what-beta-actually-measures&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is free to try &lt;br&gt;
— &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; walks you through it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;← Part 26: &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/&lt;br&gt;%0Atwo-lines-that-move-together-for-no-reason-at-all-7bb525780d26" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Two Lines That Move Together, For No Reason At All&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>eodhd</category>
      <category>mcp</category>
      <category>statistics</category>
      <category>finance</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Two Lines That Move Together, For No Reason At All</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 09:51:24 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/two-lines-that-move-together-for-no-reason-at-all-26ie</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/two-lines-that-move-together-for-no-reason-at-all-26ie</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;A high correlation number looks like proof of something. Two lines on a chart, rising and falling together — surely that means one &lt;br&gt;
drives the other, or at least that something real connects them.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Sometimes it does. Sometimes it's a coincidence dressed up as a statistic — two numbers that happened to trend the same way over the &lt;br&gt;
same stretch of time, with no relationship between them at all. Let's find a pair like that, and see what correlation alone can't tell &lt;br&gt;
us.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want to try this yourself? The &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=two-lines-that-move-together-for-no-reason-at-all&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;EODHD MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is what pulled &lt;br&gt;
the data above — connect it to Claude and ask your own questions (affiliate link).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Find two things that shouldn't be related
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Use the eodhd MCP to compare AMZN's monthly price
against global sugar prices from May 2023 to
January 2026, and calculate the correlation.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Correlation coefficient: −0.887. Over those 33 months, as sugar prices fell, Amazon's stock rose — and it did so with a consistency &lt;br&gt;
that would usually be read as a strong, meaningful relationship. On a scale where 0 means no relationship and ±1 means perfect lockstep, &lt;br&gt;
−0.887 is close to as tight as real-world financial data ever gets.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;There is no supply chain, no economic mechanism, and no plausible causal story connecting the world sugar market to Amazon's stock &lt;br&gt;
price.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A correlation this strong, between two things with nothing to do with each other, is exactly the trap this article is about.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Zoom out and watch it fall apart
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Now calculate the same correlation over the full
period, January 2021 to July 2026, instead of
just that one window.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Over the full 67 months, the correlation between AMZN and sugar prices drops to −0.579 — still negative, but noticeably weaker than &lt;br&gt;
the −0.887 we found by picking the 33-month stretch that happened to line up best.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;That's not a data error. It's what happens when you search enough time windows: somewhere in almost any two unrelated series, a &lt;br&gt;
stretch exists where they happen to move together more tightly than chance alone would suggest. The tighter number wasn't a discovery — &lt;br&gt;
it was the result of looking until something matched.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the trap correlation-hunting sets for itself. Scan enough starting points, enough window lengths, enough pairs of tickers, and &lt;br&gt;
you will find an impressive number eventually — not because you found a relationship, but because with enough attempts, coincidence &lt;br&gt;
starts looking exactly like one.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A correlation number, however strong, never tells you &lt;em&gt;why&lt;/em&gt; two things moved together — and that's the whole problem with stopping here.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;A more rigorous test exists: cointegration, which checks not just whether two series move together over one window, but whether they &lt;br&gt;
share a stable, long-run equilibrium relationship that persists across time and would be expected to hold up out of sample. AMZN and &lt;br&gt;
sugar prices would almost certainly fail that test — there's no economic reason to expect one to anchor the other. Correlation asks "did &lt;br&gt;
these move together, this one time?" Cointegration asks a harder, more honest question: "is there a real, structural reason to expect &lt;br&gt;
they'll keep doing it?"&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The deeper lesson: any time a correlation is discovered by scanning many windows, many pairs, or many parameters — rather than proposed &lt;br&gt;
first and tested once — treat it as suspect by default. The sugar-and-Amazon relationship above wasn't found because someone &lt;br&gt;
hypothesized a link and checked. It was found because the exact opposite happened: we looked for a coincidence, and finance has an &lt;br&gt;
almost unlimited supply of them. Not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the twenty-sixth article in the series &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="https://medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Acodetodeploy/unlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, and the first one that manufactured its own trap &lt;br&gt;
on purpose — deliberately hunting for a coincidence to show how easy coincidences are to find.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts built the illusion, then took it apart.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's where it lands: &lt;strong&gt;the same two series — AMZN's stock price and the world price of sugar — showed a correlation of −0.887 in &lt;br&gt;
one carefully chosen 33-month window, and only −0.579 across the full six years.&lt;/strong&gt; Neither number means Amazon's stock is driven by &lt;br&gt;
sugar. What the gap between them means is simpler and more useful: a correlation you found by searching is a different kind of evidence &lt;br&gt;
than a correlation you predicted and then checked. Ask which one you're looking at before you trust either.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If this made you curious, the &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=two-lines-that-move-together-for-no-reason-at-all&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is free to try — &lt;br&gt;
&lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; walks you through it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;← Part 25: &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/&lt;br&gt;%0Ahundreds-of-lines-one-sentence-backtesting-without-the-code-8bfa25542a82" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Hundreds of Lines, One Sentence: Backtesting Without the Code&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>eodhd</category>
      <category>mcp</category>
      <category>datascience</category>
      <category>statistics</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Hundreds of Lines, One Sentence: Backtesting Without the Code</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:30:43 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/hundreds-of-lines-one-sentence-backtesting-without-the-code-7mn</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/hundreds-of-lines-one-sentence-backtesting-without-the-code-7mn</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;Testing a trading strategy on historical data used to mean opening a library like Backtrader: define a strategy class, loop through &lt;br&gt;
price bars, compute indicators, simulate buys and sells, track the resulting equity curve. A simple test could easily run to a hundred &lt;br&gt;
lines of Python before you saw a single result.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Let's test one of the oldest, most recognizable strategies there is — the "golden cross," buying when a 50-day moving average crosses &lt;br&gt;
above the 200-day — the same way we've tested everything else in this series: by asking.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want to try this yourself? The &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=hundreds-of-lines-one-sentence-backtesting-without-the-code&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;EODHD MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is what &lt;br&gt;
pulled the data above — connect it to Claude and ask your own questions (affiliate link).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Run the backtest with a single sentence
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Use the eodhd MCP to backtest a golden cross strategy on AMZN 
from 2020 to today: buy when the 50-day moving average 
crosses above the 200-day, sell when 
it crosses below. Compare to buy-and-hold.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Over roughly six and a half years (2020–2026), the golden cross strategy triggered eight signals — four buys, four sells — the most &lt;br&gt;
recent being a golden cross buy at $274.99 on May 6, 2026.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;$10,000 invested using the strategy grew to $10,526.69 — a 5.3% total return. $10,000 in plain buy-and-hold grew to $27,057.81 — a &lt;br&gt;
170.6% total return.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Buy-and-hold outperformed the "golden cross" strategy by more than 30 times over.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;No Backtrader class, no manual loop through six years of daily bars, no hand-rolled equity curve calculation. One sentence, and the &lt;br&gt;
strategy's entire track record came back — including the fact that it lost badly.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Ask why it lost so badly
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Break down the returns during each period 
the strategy was out of the market, 
to see what it missed.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Between each sell signal and the next buy signal — the stretches spent in cash, waiting for a new uptrend to confirm — AMZN moved:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Apr 2021: +2.9% (brief, minor)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Jan 2022 – May 2023: −14.2% (the strategy correctly avoided this stretch)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Apr–Jul 2025: +26.7% (missed entirely, sitting in cash)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Mar–May 2026: +29.3% (missed entirely, sitting in cash)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The strategy did its job during the one genuine bear stretch — sidestepping a 14% decline. But the other three times it sat out, the &lt;br&gt;
stock wasn't falling, it was recovering fast — and a moving-average crossover, by design, only confirms a new uptrend after it's already &lt;br&gt;
well underway. Two rallies worth more than 25% each happened entirely while the strategy was waiting for confirmation that never came in &lt;br&gt;
time.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This backtest, like most quick ones, simplifies reality in ways worth naming.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It ignores transaction costs and taxes — eight trades over six years isn't expensive, but it's not free either, and the comparison to &lt;br&gt;
buy-and-hold (zero trades) is already generous to buy-and-hold before costs are even considered. It also tested exactly one stock over &lt;br&gt;
exactly one stretch of history; a 50/200-day crossover might behave completely differently on a different asset, a longer history, or a &lt;br&gt;
market that chops sideways instead of trending hard in one direction, which is the environment crossover strategies are actually &lt;br&gt;
designed for. AMZN's pattern here — long, powerful trends with sharp V-shaped recoveries — is close to the worst-case scenario for a &lt;br&gt;
strategy that only confirms a trend after it's already moved.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;None of that changes what happened on this specific test. It's a reminder that "backtested it once" and "proved it works" are different &lt;br&gt;
claims — the same reminder Backtrader would have given you, just after considerably more setup. As always: not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This is the twenty-fifth article in the series &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href="https://medium.com/&lt;br&gt;%0Acodetodeploy/unlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, and the one that finally tested what this whole &lt;br&gt;
series has been implying: that a plain-English prompt can replace not just a data fetch, but the code around it too. Six and a half &lt;br&gt;
years of daily bars, eight signals, a full equity curve — no Backtrader class, no manual loop.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts ran the backtest and then explained exactly where it went wrong.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's what those two prompts found: &lt;strong&gt;buy-and-hold turned $10,000 into $27,058. The golden cross strategy turned it into $10,527 — &lt;br&gt;
more than 30 times less growth, mostly lost across two rallies, worth 27% and 29%, that happened entirely while the strategy sat in cash &lt;br&gt;
waiting for confirmation.&lt;/strong&gt; The code that used to take an afternoon to write took two sentences to run. The lesson it revealed — that a &lt;br&gt;
famous strategy can lose badly to doing nothing — was exactly the same either way.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If this made you curious, the &lt;a href="https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/mcp-server-for-financial-data-by-eodhd?via=jsmrd&amp;amp;&lt;br&gt;%0Autm_source=medium&amp;amp;utm_medium=post&amp;amp;utm_campaign=hundreds-of-lines-one-sentence-backtesting-without-the-code&amp;amp;utm_content=Jaroslav" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;MCP Server&lt;/a&gt; is free &lt;br&gt;
to try — &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; walks you &lt;br&gt;
through it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;← Part 24: &lt;a href="https://medium.com/@jaroslav-smarda/&lt;br&gt;%0Amax-pain-a-real-pattern-or-a-coincidence-with-a-good-story-14c686b07eac" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Max Pain: A Real Pattern or a Coincidence With a Good Story?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>eodhd</category>
      <category>mcp</category>
      <category>stockmarket</category>
      <category>backtesting</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Free, Unrestricted, and Almost as Easy: Reading SEC Filings with a Prompt</title>
      <dc:creator>Jaroslav Šmarda</dc:creator>
      <pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2026 11:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <link>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/free-unrestricted-and-almost-as-easy-reading-sec-filings-with-a-prompt-11lc</link>
      <guid>https://dev.to/jaroslav_marda_9f25d4d9c/free-unrestricted-and-almost-as-easy-reading-sec-filings-with-a-prompt-11lc</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Python for programmers, prompts for data analysts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;Every article in this series has leaned on one server: EODHD. But the underlying numbers — revenue, profit, shares outstanding — don't &lt;br&gt;
originate there. They come from a company's own filings to the SEC, published for free, for anyone, the moment they're submitted.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's a natural question: could we skip the middleman entirely, and just ask the source?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Turns out, mostly yes.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;New here? &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/the-setup-everything-you-need-before-your-first-prompt-1faeeff94263" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;The Setup&lt;/a&gt; covers &lt;br&gt;
everything you need before your first prompt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Ask the source directly
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;Fetch data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001018724.json 
for Amazon and tell me their most recent annual revenue.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amazon's CIK (Central Index Key) is 1018724 — padded to 10 digits for the URL. Fetching that page returns a single JSON document &lt;br&gt;
containing every financial fact Amazon has disclosed to the SEC since it started filing electronically: shares outstanding, accounts &lt;br&gt;
payable, revenue, and hundreds more, each as a full time series stretching back years.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;No login, no API key, no special header required to read it — the page opened on the first request.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;No MCP server. No Docker. Not even a signup. The exact same government database that powers every "10-K" citation you've ever seen in a &lt;br&gt;
finance article is sitting behind a plain URL, and Claude can just fetch it — the same way it's fetched news articles and pricing pages &lt;br&gt;
throughout this series.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Pull a real number
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;From that data, what was Amazon's 
most recent quarterly accounts receivable balance?
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The most recent figure in the file: $88.09 billion, for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, filed August 1, 2026. The same concept — &lt;br&gt;
"AccountsReceivableNetCurrent" — stretches back to 2008, so you can trace the exact same line item across nearly two decades in one file.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That's the pattern for anything company-wide: revenue, cash, debt, shares outstanding — one concept name, one flat time series, every &lt;br&gt;
quarter and every year a company has filed, going back as far as their electronic records exist. No parsing a PDF, no scraping a table &lt;br&gt;
out of a press release. It's already structured, and it's already sitting there.&lt;/p&gt;


&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Ask for the one thing it can't give you
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;🟧 &lt;strong&gt;PROMPT&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;div class="highlight js-code-highlight"&gt;
&lt;pre class="highlight plaintext"&gt;&lt;code&gt;From that same file, break out Amazon's revenue 
by segment — AWS, North America, and International.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;

&lt;/div&gt;



&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looking through the file, revenue is there — but only as one number per period, the company-wide total. There's no "AWS revenue" or &lt;br&gt;
"North America revenue" concept in this list. The segment breakdown genuinely exists in Amazon's 10-K — it's just not in this particular &lt;br&gt;
document.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;p&gt;That's the wall. Everything company-wide — one number per concept, per quarter, forever — comes through cleanly. But a segment split &lt;br&gt;
isn't a company-wide fact; it's a number tied to &lt;em&gt;which part of the business&lt;/em&gt; it belongs to, and that extra dimension doesn't travel &lt;br&gt;
through this endpoint. The data hasn't vanished. It's just filed under a different door than the one we just walked through.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  A word of honesty
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two things worth being precise about, and they cut in opposite directions.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;First, the good news is real: anything company-wide — revenue, cash, debt, shares outstanding, hundreds of concepts — comes through a &lt;br&gt;
plain URL, no signup, no key, no rate-limit dance. That's rarer than it sounds; most financial APIs gate at least some of this behind a &lt;br&gt;
paid tier. SEC EDGAR doesn't, because it's not a product — it's a public record.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Second, "no MCP server needed" only holds for exactly this kind of question — one concept, one company, over time. The moment you want &lt;br&gt;
something structurally different, like a segment split, you've left the territory this endpoint covers. That's not a flaw in the API; &lt;br&gt;
it's a reminder that "free and unrestricted" and "covers everything you might want" are different promises, and this only makes the &lt;br&gt;
first one.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So: a genuinely good tool for the numbers a company reports about itself as a whole — and a dead end, at least here, for the numbers it &lt;br&gt;
reports about its parts. As always: not investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;h2&gt;
  
  
  Final Thoughts
&lt;/h2&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This one sits outside the main numbered series — a detour to check something the series has leaned on all along without ever looking &lt;br&gt;
directly at it: the government record every EODHD number ultimately traces back to.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Two prompts got us company-wide facts going back nearly two decades, no setup beyond a URL. A third hit a wall the moment we asked for &lt;br&gt;
something structural instead of company-wide.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So here's where this leaves things: &lt;strong&gt;SEC EDGAR is as open as data gets — free, unrestricted, no key, no rate-limit dance — and it will &lt;br&gt;
answer almost any question about a company as a whole. Ask about its parts, and you've asked a different kind of question than this &lt;br&gt;
endpoint was built to answer.&lt;/strong&gt; That's not a flaw to work around. It's the shape of the thing, worth knowing before you go looking for &lt;br&gt;
it.&lt;/p&gt;




&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Originally published on &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/&lt;br&gt;%0Afree-unrestricted-and-almost-as-easy-reading-sec-filings-with-a-prompt-0e1dd71b3bba" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;CodeToDeploy&lt;/a&gt;. Part of the series &lt;a href="https://medium.com/codetodeploy/&lt;br&gt;%0Aunlock-real-time-market-intelligence-with-eodhd-and-claude-6f431c82c525" rel="noopener noreferrer"&gt;Unlock Real-Time Market &lt;br&gt;
Intelligence with EODHD and Claude&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

</description>
      <category>eodhd</category>
      <category>mcp</category>
      <category>stockmarket</category>
      <category>ai</category>
    </item>
  </channel>
</rss>
