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ZEC Inflation Analysis · July 2026 · A capped miner mint with a 12% lockbox brake

MrNasdog — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:20:58 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/zec/inflation

ZEC Inflation Analysis · July 2026 · A capped miner mint with a 12% lockbox brake

Zcash mints new ZEC only through mining — about 162K ZEC over 90 days at 1.5625 ZEC per block. Roughly 80% goes to miners and 8% to community grants, both reaching the market, while 12% (about 19K ZEC) is minted into a protocol lockbox that cannot be spent without a future vote. The framework reads about +0.85% net, against our supply monitor at +1.00% — a gap of 0.15 percentage points, inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap chip ships.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending July 1 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads ZEC at +0.85% net on the forward view. New supply comes entirely from the block subsidy; the only thing pulling the other way is the lockbox, which absorbs 12% of every block. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +1.00%, a gap of just 0.15 percentage points — the monitor counts gross issuance while the framework nets out the locked leg, and the residual is well inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap chip ships. Zcash is mildly inflationary on a hard-capped schedule: a fixed 1.5625-ZEC reward, halving roughly every four years, against a 21-million ceiling that is already about 80% mined.

Sell pressure: where new ZEC comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the whole story, at about 162K ZEC over the next 90 days. Mining is the only way new ZEC is created. The block subsidy is 1.5625 ZEC, paid roughly every 75 seconds — near 1,152 blocks a day — so the chain mints about 162,000 ZEC across this 90-day window. That subsidy is split by protocol rule: about 80% to miners and 8% to the Zcash Community Grants committee, both of which reach the open market, plus a 12% lockbox leg tracked on the buy side below. The reward last halved in November 2024 (from 3.125 to 1.5625) and does not halve again until about November 2028, so the last 90 days and the next 90 days mint the same amount.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: Zcash has no investor or team vesting. The original Founders' Reward ran from 2016 to the first halving in November 2020 and has been fully expired for years, so no cliff can hit the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero as a flow, though it carries the one overhang worth naming: the deferred dev-fund lockbox, covered below. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to ZEC.

Buy pressure: where ZEC goes

Buy #4 — new long-term lock — is the only non-zero buy-side row, at about 19K ZEC this window. This is the 12% lockbox leg of the block subsidy: the protocol mints it straight into a reserve that is unspendable until a future governance vote authorizes a disbursement mechanism. Those coins are newly created but held off the market, so the framework counts the gross mint as sell pressure and removes the lockbox portion here. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: Zcash has no mechanism that buys ZEC back. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is zero: transaction fees are paid to miners, not destroyed (a 60% fee-burn, ZIP-235, has been proposed but is not active). Buy #3 — Foundation buy — is zero: nothing buys ZEC off the open market.

Foundation and overhang

Zcash's one real overhang is the deferred dev-fund lockbox. Since the November 2024 upgrade, 12% of every block has been minted into it, and it has accumulated well over 130K ZEC — a balance that keeps growing each block. Critically, those coins are locked at the protocol level: they cannot be spent until coinholders approve a separate disbursement ZIP, and as of July 1 2026 no such mechanism has been ratified — the proposed one-time disbursement (ZIP-271, to a 2-of-3 multisig held by the Foundation, Electric Coin Company and Shielded Labs) is still tied to a future upgrade. The framework therefore books the ongoing 12% as a buy-side lock and treats the accumulated balance as a tracked, off-market overhang rather than current sell pressure. The trigger is simple: if a future vote ever releases the lockbox, that backlog moves to the sell side at the next refresh. The chain emission and any governance change are re-checked on a roughly bi-weekly walk.

How ZEC compares to other privacy and proof-of-work coins

ZEC belongs to the class of hard-capped, halving-model proof-of-work coins — the Bitcoin template — with a 21-million ceiling and a reward that halves about every four years. That makes its long-run inflation path fall in steps toward zero, unlike an uncapped continuous-emission chain. Among privacy coins specifically, that cap is the dividing line: Monero, the other major privacy coin, runs a permanent tail emission with no cap, so it inflates forever at a small fixed rate, while Zcash will stop issuing once the cap is reached.

What sets Zcash apart from a plain halving coin is the dev-fund split. A pure Bitcoin-style chain sends 100% of the subsidy to miners; Zcash routes 20% of every block to ecosystem funding — 8% to grants and 12% into the lockbox. The lockbox is the unusual part: it is freshly minted supply that is minted-but-frozen, so it counts against the cap yet does not pressure the market until governance acts. That gives ZEC a slightly lower effective inflation than its gross mint implies, with a known, dated risk attached to the locked balance. A larger structural change is queued but not yet live: NU7, on testnet since May 22 2026, would swap the step-halving schedule for a smooth logarithmic decay (ZIP-234) while keeping the same 21-million cap — a Monero-style smoothing that would still leave Zcash capped.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the NU7 mainnet activation, planned for later in 2026: it carries Zcash Shielded Assets, the ZIP-234 issuance-smoothing curve, and a shorter 25-second block time, and it is the upgrade most likely to redefine how the lockbox is handled. Watch the lockbox-disbursement governance (ZIP-271): a vote to spend the accrued dev-fund balance would flip that backlog from a buy-side lock to a sell event. Watch the ZIP-235 fee-burn proposal — if a burn of transaction fees were activated, it would add the first real buy-side offset Zcash has. And note that the recent NU6.2 emergency fork on June 3 2026, which fixed an Orchard proof-circuit bug, created no new supply and left the subsidy untouched — a security event, not a pressure event. The next halving is not until about November 2028, well outside this window.

Summary

ZEC is a hard-capped, halving-model proof-of-work coin whose supply grows only through mining. The chain mints about 162K ZEC over 90 days at 1.5625 per block; roughly 88% reaches the market through miners and grants, while a 12% lockbox holds about 19K ZEC off-market until a future vote. That leaves the framework at about +0.85% net, against our supply monitor at +1.00%. Zcash stays mildly inflationary today, with two structural brakes ahead — the 21-million cap and the 2028 halving — and one watch item, the locked dev-fund balance that a future NU7-era vote could release.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Zcash (ZEC), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 1, 2026.

XMR Inflation Analysis · July 2026 · A fixed tail reward and almost no new supply

MrNasdog — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:20:54 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/xmr/inflation by MrNasdog.

Monero mints a fixed 0.6 XMR per block, forever — about 0.039M XMR over 90 days, or roughly +0.21%. There is no buyback, no burn and nothing was ever premined, so the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads about +0.2% net. Our supply monitor reads +1.71% — a gap that comes from Monero's hidden ledger, where circulating supply is estimated and the prior baseline was later re-based.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending July 1 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads XMR at about +0.2% net, almost flat. The entire flow is one number: a fixed tail reward of 0.6 XMR per block that mints roughly 0.039M XMR a quarter. There is no vesting, no foundation reserve, no buyback and no burn, so nothing pushes the other way. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +1.71% — a gap of about 1.5 percentage points that ships a monitor-gap flag. The gap is a measurement artifact, not new coins: at 0.6 XMR per block the protocol can physically mint only about 0.039M XMR in 90 days, yet the monitor booked roughly 0.315M — about eight times more than the reward allows. Monero hides its ledger, so circulating supply is estimated, and the 90-day-ago estimate was low and later re-based upward. The fixed mining reward is kept as primary, and XMR is best read as near-flat by design, with a small, permanent, and slowly-falling inflation rate.

Sell pressure: where new XMR comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the whole story, and it is tiny. Monero reached tail emission at the end of May 2022: after the original mining schedule ran down, the block reward settled at a fixed 0.6 XMR per block and stays there permanently. With a block roughly every two minutes, that is about 720 blocks a day, or ~0.039M XMR minted over 90 days — about +0.21% against the ~18.8M coins already in circulation. Because the reward is a fixed amount rather than a percentage, the same ~0.039M is minted every quarter forever, so the percentage rate slowly falls as the supply grows; annualized it is about 0.84% a year and easing.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero. Monero launched in April 2014 as a fair launch: no premine, no instamine, no founder allocation and no slice of the block reward routed to a treasury. Nothing was ever locked, so no cliff can ever reach the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero, because there is no foundation reserve of XMR held from launch; the entire supply is mined into the open market by whoever runs the hardware. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, with no estate or court distribution applying to XMR.

Buy pressure: where XMR goes

There is none to count. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: Monero has no protocol revenue and no mechanism that buys XMR back from the market. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is also zero, because transaction fees are paid to miners, not destroyed, so no coins leave the supply. Buy #3 — foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no treasury to fund open-market buying and no new escrow announced in the window. Monero is a pure-issuance coin: a small, fixed mint, and no offset whatsoever.

Foundation and overhang

XMR has the cleanest overhang profile in crypto: there isn't one. There is no team allocation, no investor lock-up, no foundation multisig holding a launch reserve, and no buyback wallet quietly accumulating. Development is funded by a voluntary community crowdfunding system — donations, not a stockpile of XMR that the project holds and sells — so there is no team-controlled supply that could ever be released into the market. That is the direct result of the 2014 fair launch, and it is the reason the framework books exactly one sell row and three structural zeros. There is simply no discretionary supply to monitor; if any identified overhang ever appeared, its outflow would enter Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How XMR compares to other proof-of-work coins

XMR belongs to the class of proof-of-work coins with a fixed perpetual tail emission — but unlike Bitcoin, it never reaches a hard cap. Bitcoin halves toward a fixed 21M ceiling and zero issuance; Monero instead chose a permanent 0.6 XMR per block to keep paying miners after the main emission ended, deliberately trading a hard cap for a small, never-zero security budget. The result is the opposite trade-off: Bitcoin's inflation trends to zero but its long-run miner pay relies entirely on fees, while Monero's inflation never reaches zero but its miners always have a base reward.

For an inflation lens, that makes XMR one of the lowest-issuance coins outside the hard-capped set. The mint is fixed in coins, so the percentage rate falls every year as supply grows — currently under 1% a year and easing. There is no burn to make it deflationary and no unlock schedule to make it spiky; it is just a small, steady, predictable drip that gets relatively smaller over time. Where a privacy chain like Zcash also runs continuous issuance, Monero's difference is that every coin goes to miners with no founders' reward, so there is no separate emission stream to track.

What to watch in the next 90 days

There is very little to watch, which is the point. The tail reward is a protocol constant, so barring a hard fork that changes it — none is proposed — the ~0.039M-per-90-days mint is locked in. The FCMP++ upgrade landing around mid-2026 and the later Seraphis and Jamtis work are privacy and functionality changes; none of them alter issuance. The one thing to keep an eye on is our supply monitor: because Monero hides its ledger, circulating supply is an estimate, and trackers disagree by hundreds of thousands of coins, which is exactly what produced this window's +1.71% reading against a true mint of about +0.21%. Expect the framework to keep reading near flat while the monitor occasionally jumps on estimate revisions; those jumps are measurement, not issuance.

Summary

XMR is a fair-launch proof-of-work privacy coin with a fixed tail reward of 0.6 XMR per block. That mints about 0.039M XMR over 90 days, roughly +0.21%, with no vesting, no foundation reserve, no buyback and no burn — so the framework reads about +0.2% net, almost flat. Our supply monitor reads +1.71% realized, but that gap is a measurement artifact: the protocol can only mint about 0.039M XMR in 90 days, and Monero's hidden ledger forces circulating supply to be estimated, with a low prior baseline later re-based upward. The fixed mining reward is kept as primary. XMR stays near-flat, with a small, permanent inflation rate that slowly falls as the supply grows.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Monero (XMR), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 1, 2026.

TON Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Faster blocks meet a loud unlock calendar

MrNasdog — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 23:03:39 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/ton/inflation by MrNasdog.

The Open Network — whose coin was renamed Toncoin to Gram in June 2026 with no change to supply — now carries two real sell forces. An April speed upgrade lifted validator emission to roughly 50M TON over 90 days, and the Believers Fund vesting unlock moves about 110M TON from frozen to circulating in the same window. With no buyback to offset either, the framework reads about +5.9% net. Our supply monitor reads +10.0% — the gap is an aggregator-side reclassification, not an extra outflow.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window opening June 28 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads TON at about +5.9% net on the forward view, driven by a stepped-up validator emission plus the Believers Fund vesting unlock. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +10.0%, versus the framework's +5.91% read of on-chain emission plus the published unlock calendar — a gap of about 4.1 percentage points that ships a ⚠ monitor-gap chip. The monitor's extra rise is a supply-classification change on the data side: TON renamed to Gram and previously-frozen buckets were re-tagged as circulating faster than the per-cliff vesting calendar and the mint rate — not a flow the framework could trace on-chain. TON is structurally inflationary on the float right now, but the cause is a finite unlock plus a temporary emission step-up, not perpetual high issuance.

Sell pressure: where new TON comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is no longer a rounding error, at about 50M TON over the next 90 days. The Catchain 2.0 upgrade went live on April 9 2026 and cut block time from roughly 2.5 seconds to about 400 milliseconds. Because the per-block reward was left unchanged — 1.7 TON on the masterchain, 1.0 TON on the basechain — producing far more blocks pushed annual emission from the old ~0.6% toward roughly 3.6%. Live chain counters show about 570K TON minted per day against a far smaller fee burn, which nets to roughly 50M over the window.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is still the largest single force, at about 110M TON over 90 days. The Believers Fund holds about 1.27B TON from early backers and releases one thirty-sixth of itself — about 36.6M TON — every month, from late 2025 through October 2028. Three of those monthly cliffs land inside this window: July, August and September 2026, summing to roughly 110M coins moving from frozen to tradable. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is zero, because no dated discretionary release is scheduled outside that fund. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is also zero as a flow, but it is not empty: about 1,081M TON of early-miner wallets, frozen by a 2023 community vote, stay locked until roughly February 2027 and so contribute nothing in this window.

Buy pressure: where new TON goes

There is no buy-side offset to speak of. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: TON has no protocol mechanism that buys coins off the market. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is real but is already netted into the emission figure above, so it is carried at zero here to avoid double-counting; the network burns about half of each transaction fee, and that burn scales with activity, but it is far too small to absorb a 110M unlock plus a faster-block emission. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying or new escrow announced in the window. The result is a one-sided ledger: emission and the unlock add, and nothing structural removes.

Foundation and overhang

TON's overhang is unusually large and well-documented. The biggest tracked block is the 1,081M TON of frozen early-miner wallets — 171 genesis accounts that mined TON during the early proof-of-work phase and never transacted, suspended for 48 months by the February 2023 governance vote. That freeze lifts around February 2027, so it is a watch item for a future window, not this one. The second block is the Believers Fund itself: of its roughly 1.27B TON, about 1.1B remains to release on the monthly schedule through October 2028. Both are surfaced as overhangs and re-checked on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if either balance falls faster than its published schedule, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How TON compares to other uncapped layer-1 chains

TON belongs to the class of uncapped proof-of-stake L1s, and after Catchain 2.0 its emission profile looks more conventional than it used to. Most uncapped chains carry their dilution in the emission curve itself — a steady few percent a year to validators. TON spent years near the bottom of that range at about 0.6% net, thanks to its fee burn; the faster-block upgrade has lifted that toward 3.6%, putting it closer to the middle of the uncapped pack rather than the floor.

What still sets TON apart is that the bulk of its near-term dilution is front-loaded into a finite vesting schedule rather than spread across perpetual emission. A halving-model chain with a hard cap dilutes a known, shrinking amount forever; a high-emission L1 dilutes a steady amount forever; TON dilutes heavily but temporarily, as the Believers Fund and the frozen-miner blocks work through their calendars by 2027–2028. There is also a live governance lever: validators have been voting on whether to cut the per-block reward to claw the post-Catchain emission back down, so the emission half of the ledger could ease if that passes — unlike a chain whose inflation is fixed in protocol.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the three Believers Fund cliffs in July, August and September 2026 — each adds about 36.6M TON, and together they remain the largest piece of the inflation story for the window. Watch the validator block-reward vote: if the masterchain reward is cut from 1.7 TON toward a lower level, the Sell #1 emission step-up partly reverses. Watch whether the data side keeps reading circulating supply well above the combined emission-plus-unlock pace; that wedge is what drives the monitor gap and would close once the post-rebrand reclassification settles. And keep the February 2027 early-miner unfreeze on the calendar — it is the next large structural overhang after this fund.

Summary

TON — now branded Gram — is an uncapped proof-of-stake L1 whose coin inflation stepped up after the April 2026 Catchain 2.0 speed upgrade, to roughly 3.6% a year, and whose near-term supply is further dominated by a finite vesting unlock. Validator emission adds about 50M TON over the next 90 days and the Believers Fund releases about 110M across three monthly cliffs, with no buyback to offset either, leaving the framework at about +5.9% net. Our supply monitor reads +10.0% realized, with the gap explained by an aggregator-side reclassification rather than a traceable outflow. The key risk is the combined unlock-plus-emission pace; the key relief is that the unlock is scheduled and finite and the emission step-up is up for a governance reversal — with the frozen early-miner block as the next overhang to watch in 2027.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Toncoin (TON / Gram), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 28, 2026.

RENDER Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · The burn now edges past the mint

MrNasdog — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:53:51 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/render/inflation by MrNasdog.

TL;DR. Render Network runs on a burn-mint equilibrium: about 0.35M RENDER reaches the market over 90 days as node-operator rewards and grants, while roughly 0.36M is burned as customers pay for render and AI-compute jobs. The two nearly cancel, with the burn now a hair ahead, so the framework reads about flat net, leaning gently deflationary. Our supply monitor agrees, reading −0.17% realized over the last 90 days.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 28 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads RENDER at roughly 0.00% net on the forward view, a touch on the deflationary side. The reason is structural: Render Network is built around a Burn-Mint Equilibrium, where RENDER is burned to pay for work and new RENDER is minted to reward the operators who do it. When usage and emissions are balanced, those two flows roughly offset and net supply barely moves — and as job burns have climbed, the burn side has crept just past the released mint. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at −0.17% — within a fifth of a percentage point of the framework, so no gap chip is needed. RENDER is, on the active float, about as close to supply-neutral as a working token gets, with a slight deflationary bias.

Sell pressure: where new RENDER comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the only active source, and it is smaller than it first looks. Render Network mints new RENDER as rewards to GPU node operators and as artist and AI grants, on a governed, declining schedule. The current year (Year 3 of the Burn-Mint Equilibrium, set by governance proposal RNP-022) authorizes 5.9M RENDER across node rewards, grants, and operations — split 1.5M node rewards, 1.5M grants, and 2.9M operations. But only the node-reward and grant slice that is actually released reaches the open market — about 0.35M over 90 days, with node rewards running near 17.8K RENDER per epoch. The large operations bucket stays locked by the Foundation and does not enter circulating supply until it is spent, so the framework counts the released amount, not the full authorized ceiling.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: the original RNDR token sale and team allocations finished vesting long ago, and no dated cliff falls inside this window. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero as a flow; there is no public evidence of a discretionary Foundation release in the window, and the locked operations emissions are tracked but not projected forward until they actually move. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to RENDER.

Buy pressure: where RENDER is removed

Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is the whole offset, at about 0.36M RENDER over 90 days. Every render or AI-compute job is paid in RENDER, and 95% of that spend is burned the moment the work completes — destroyed permanently, not parked in a treasury, with 5% kept by the Foundation. Job burns grew sharply through 2025, up roughly 279% year over year, and cumulative burns crossed 1.2M coins by early 2026 and kept climbing, now running at 120K or more a month. At the current pace the burn runs just above the released mint, which is exactly what a burn-mint equilibrium is designed to do when usage is healthy.

Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: RENDER has no open-market buyback, because its supply offset is the job burn rather than a treasury buying coins back. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying or new escrow announced in the window.

Foundation and overhang

RENDER's main overhang is not a vesting cliff — it is the Foundation-locked operations emissions, the 2.9M slice of the 5.9M yearly authorization. These coins are minted on paper but held back, released only as the Foundation spends on operations, research and growth, and they do not count as circulating until they move. That is why the framework books Sell #1 at the released amount rather than the full 5.9M: counting the locked bucket as market supply would overstate dilution. A new partner integration, RNP-023, pulls a portion of those monthly operations emissions forward to fund rewards — but it keeps the overall emissions cap unchanged, so the overhang ceiling is the same. The framework re-checks the monthly Foundation reports on a regular walk; if that locked balance starts falling faster than usage explains, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How RENDER compares to other burn-mint tokens

RENDER belongs to the class of burn-mint utility tokens — supply rises with emissions and falls with usage, and net inflation depends on which side is winning. Unlike a hard-capped, halving-model coin, RENDER has no fixed scarcity floor in the short run; unlike a pure inflation chain, it has a real demand-driven sink that can fully offset the mint. The result is a token whose net supply tracks how much work the network is actually doing: heavy usage burns more than is minted and the supply shrinks, while quiet periods let the mint edge ahead.

Right now the two sides sit almost exactly in balance, with the burn just ahead — the healthiest state for this design, because the network is busy enough that job burns now exceed the rewards paid to keep operators online. The emissions schedule is also declining over time, with the authorized amount stepping down and halving every five years further out, so the mint side has a built-in downward drift. The newly approved RNP-023, which brings a distributed-compute partner onto the network, is deliberately structured so its burns run about 8% above its rewards — pushing RENDER further toward deflation as that usage ramps. For an inflation lens, RENDER reads as supply-neutral today and structurally biased toward deflation as long as usage holds up.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the monthly burn figures — the single number that decides whether RENDER tips deflationary or inflationary is how much compute the network sells, because that is what gets burned. Watch the rollout of the RNP-023 compute partner, whose new LLM service is slated to launch in Q2 2026; its burns are engineered to outpace its rewards, so a strong ramp would deepen the deflationary lean. Watch the released emissions in the Foundation reports, since a faster draw on the locked operations bucket would add supply the framework would move into Sell #3. Note that the current emissions year runs through December 2026, after which the next governed step-down lowers the mint again. And expect net supply to keep hovering near flat for as long as job burns and released rewards stay matched — the balance is the design, not a coincidence.

Summary

RENDER is a burn-mint utility token on Solana whose supply rises with operator rewards and falls with job burns. About 0.35M RENDER reaches the market over 90 days as released emissions, while roughly 0.36M is burned paying for render and AI jobs, leaving the framework at about flat net with a slight deflationary lean. Our supply monitor reads −0.17% realized — essentially the same, so no gap chip is needed. RENDER stays close to supply-neutral on the active float, with a declining emissions schedule, rising usage, and a newly approved compute partner all nudging it further toward the deflationary side over time.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Render Network (RENDER), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 28, 2026.

RAY Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Buyback outpaces the last of the mint

MrNasdog — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:53:48 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/ray/inflation by MrNasdog.

Raydium mints only about 0.5M RAY over 90 days from a shrinking mining reserve, while a buyback funded by 12% of all trading fees takes roughly 3M RAY off the open market and holds it. The buyback clearly outpaces the mint, so the Pressure Framework reads about −0.9% net on the float. Our supply monitor reads +0.24% — essentially flat — because it counts the held buyback wallet as circulating, leaving a 1.17-point gap.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 28 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads RAY at about −0.9% net: the fee-funded buyback removes far more RAY from the open market than the mining reserve issues. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +0.24% — flat — versus the framework's −0.93% read, a gap of about 1.17 percentage points. Because that exceeds the 0.5-point tolerance, a monitor-gap chip ships. The gap is structural, not an error: the buyback sends RAY to a public accumulation wallet that the monitor's upstream still counts as circulating, so on-chain the buyback wallet grew from about 72M to about 82.8M RAY over the period while the realized circulating count barely moved. RAY is best read as structurally deflationary on the active float, with the held buyback as a governance-reversible overhang.

Sell pressure: where new RAY comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is small and shrinking, at about 0.5M RAY over the next 90 days. Raydium's original three-year emission schedule front-loaded 74% of the mining reserve into its first year and finished in 2024; what remains is a thin tail of farming and staking rewards drawn from the reserve at roughly 1.9M RAY a year. That is the only genuinely new RAY entering the market, and at this pace it is a fraction of one percent of the float per quarter.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: every team, seed, advisor and ecosystem allocation finished vesting in 2024, so RAY is fully unlocked and no cliff hits the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero as a flow; about 286M RAY sits outside circulation across the mining reserve, the treasury, and the buyback wallet, but none of it has a published release schedule. The one in-window event was a June 10 2026 governance vote covering a $1.3M exploit of legacy 2021 AMM V3 pools (about 150,000 RAY plus SOL and USDC) out of treasury — already-held supply redeployed, not a new mint. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to RAY.

Buy pressure: where new RAY goes

Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is the dominant force, at about 3M RAY over 90 days. Raydium routes 12% of all trading fees into automatic RAY purchases on the open market across every pool type, regardless of fee tier. The critical detail is the destination — bought-back RAY is sent to a public accumulation wallet and held, not burned. On-chain, that wallet now holds about 82.8M RAY, up roughly 10.8M over the period, confirming the buyback ran through the window. Because the coins leave the open float even though they are not destroyed, they count as buy-side pressure here.

Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is zero, because there is no burn: the buyback accumulates RAY in a wallet rather than destroying it, so nothing is permanently removed from total supply. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying outside the fee buyback and no new escrow or lockup announced in the window.

Foundation and overhang

The team-controlled overhang for RAY is the roughly 286M RAY that sits outside circulation. It breaks into three tracked buckets: the remaining mining reserve that funds the thin emission tail; the protocol treasury, which closed Q3 2025 near $240M in assets; and the buyback accumulation wallet, which has now gathered about 82.8M RAY — roughly 31% of the circulating float — at a cumulative cost above $200M since the program began. None of these carries a published release schedule, so each is booked at zero flow and watched rather than projected. The framework re-checks the buyback wallet on-chain and the treasury on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if any of these balances falls between refreshes, the outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How RAY compares to other DEX and exchange tokens

RAY belongs to the class of fee-sharing DEX tokens with a hard cap and a revenue-funded buyback. Unlike an uncapped proof-of-stake L1 that mints continuously, RAY is capped at 555M and almost fully issued, so dilution risk is structurally low. The closest analogues are exchange and DEX tokens that recycle a share of fees into buybacks — but the key mechanism split is what happens to the coins afterward.

Some exchange tokens burn what they buy, which permanently shrinks total supply; Raydium instead holds bought-back RAY in a treasury wallet. For an inflation lens over a single window the effect is similar — the coins leave the open float either way — but the long-run read differs: a hold can in principle be reversed by governance, whereas a burn cannot. That distinction is exactly what drives the monitor gap: the framework nets the buyback off the active float and reads RAY as deflationary, while the supply monitor counts the held wallet as circulating and reads flat.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the buyback run-rate — it tracks Solana DEX trading volume, since the buyback is 12% of trading fees, and recent monthly fees of about $4.6M set the pace of the only real offset. Watch DEX trading volume on Solana directly, as it drives the fee pool that funds everything. Watch for any governance move on the buyback wallet, since a decision to burn the held RAY — or to redeploy it — would change the read overnight. And note that the mining-reserve tail keeps thinning each year, so the small new-supply line only gets smaller.

Summary

RAY is a hard-capped, fully-unlocked DEX token whose new supply is now just a thin mining-reserve tail of about 0.5M RAY over 90 days. Against it, a buyback funded by 12% of trading fees takes roughly 3M RAY off the open market and holds it in a treasury wallet, leaving the framework at about −0.9% net. Our supply monitor reads +0.24% — flat — because it counts the held wallet as circulating, so a 1.17-point gap chip ships. The key risk is the buyback run-rate, which tracks DEX volume, and the governance-reversible held position; the key ceiling is the 555M cap, almost fully reached, which keeps dilution structurally low.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Raydium (RAY), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 28 2026.

LAB Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Supply growing, projected to keep growing

MrNasdog — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 21:12:39 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/lab/inflation by MrNasdog.

LAB Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Supply growing, projected to keep growing

LAB is a young trading-terminal token whose float quadrupled in 90 days — about 236M LAB vested in — and roughly 144M more releases over the next 90, including the Aug 14 2026 cliff that begins a ~282M locked-cohort unlock. A buyback-and-burn started Jun 1 2026 but is not yet quantified, so the buy side is carried at zero. The framework reads about +46% net — sharply inflationary on a fast-diluting young supply.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 26 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads LAB at about +46% net on the forward view, driven entirely by vesting that releases new LAB far faster than anything absorbs it. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at about +308% — the float grew from roughly 76M to 313M LAB — because the monitor divides by the supply from 90 days ago, when LAB was a brand-new launch. This page divides by today's larger float, so the same vesting reads as about +76% for the trailing window; that denominator difference — a gap of roughly 233 percentage points — ships a monitor-gap flag, not a data conflict. LAB is sharply inflationary on a young, fast-diluting supply, with most of the 1B hard cap still locked.

Sell pressure: where new LAB comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is zero: LAB is a trading-terminal token, not a base chain, so there is no block reward and no protocol mint. Every new coin comes from the vesting schedule, which is the entire story here. Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is the dominant force at about 120M LAB over the next 90 days. The airdrop, liquidity and ecosystem allocations release on the post-launch schedule; they quadrupled the float over the last 90 days, adding roughly 236M LAB, and they keep vesting in, though the pace eases off the heavily front-loaded early ramp.

Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is about 24M LAB as a dated event: Aug 14 2026 begins the large locked release, when about 282M investor, team and reserved tokens — roughly 28% of all LAB — start coming free. The unlock schedule extends into 2027, so only the slice that releases before late September lands in this window. The team has changed vesting terms before, so the exact pace carries uncertainty, but the cliff itself is dated and falls inside this window — which is why it is booked as a discrete event rather than smeared into the continuous vesting. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero: the locked supply is a normal vesting overhang, not an insolvency estate or court-ordered distribution.

Buy pressure: where new LAB goes

Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is carried at zero, even though a buyback-and-burn program launched Jun 1 2026, funded by part of the platform's 0.5% trading fee and designed to repurchase and burn LAB from the open market. The project has not yet published how much it removes on-chain, so the framework carries it at zero rather than estimate a figure it cannot verify — this is monitored and will be booked once a confirmed on-chain amount exists. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is zero, because there is no separate automatic base-fee burn on the token; fee revenue feeds the buyback above, not a burn. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying and no fresh multi-year lock announced. If anything, locked supply is starting to release, not extend.

Foundation and overhang

LAB's overhang is large and not yet distributed: of the 1B hard cap, only about 312.54M is circulating, leaving the majority locked across investors, team and advisors, marketing and the unreleased balance. The headline overhang is the 282M locked cohort whose release begins on the Aug 14 2026 cliff and extends into 2027. On-chain analysts have flagged that a very high share of the current float sits with insiders, which concentrates the sell decision in few hands. The framework books the dated August tranche under Sell #3 and watches the rest as a scheduled overhang; if a locked balance falls faster than its schedule between refreshes, that outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How LAB compares to other young vesting-driven tokens

LAB belongs to the class of young, low-float application tokens — products with real revenue but most of their supply still locked, where the dominant supply force is the vesting calendar, not protocol issuance. Unlike an uncapped proof-of-stake chain that mints a steady percentage every year, LAB has a fixed 1B cap and zero protocol inflation; its dilution is front-loaded into the unlock schedule and fades as cohorts fully vest. That makes the inflation read very high early and structurally falling later, the opposite shape to a continuous-emission L1.

The contrast worth drawing is with mature exchange or fee tokens that buy back and burn aggressively enough to go net-deflationary. LAB has launched a buyback-and-burn, but it is new and unquantified, so for now it cannot offset a vesting wave of this size. Until the buyback is large and verifiable, LAB reads as one of the more inflationary young tokens on the board — a working product wrapped around a supply that is still in its dilution phase.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the Aug 14 2026 cliff — the start of the 282M locked-cohort release is the single biggest supply event in the window, and how much actually hits the market depends on whether insiders sell or hold. Watch for the first on-chain buyback-and-burn report; a verified burn amount is the only thing that would put a real number on the buy side. Watch for any further change to the vesting terms, since the team has revised them before. And watch the circulating-supply trend itself — if the vesting pace eases faster than scheduled, the forward inflation read falls with it.

Summary

LAB is a young, capped trading-terminal token whose supply is still flooding in from vesting: about 236M LAB entered the float over the last 90 days, roughly 144M more releases over the next 90, and the Aug 14 2026 cliff begins a ~282M locked-cohort unlock. There is no protocol inflation, and a Jun 1 2026 buyback-and-burn exists but is not yet quantified, so the framework carries the buy side at zero and reads about +46% net. The key risk is the unlock overhang against a concentrated, insider-heavy float; the ceiling is the fixed 1B cap, most of which is still locked.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of LAB, Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 26, 2026.

HBAR Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Capped supply, drifting up on schedule

MrNasdog — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 21:12:33 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/hbar/inflation by MrNasdog.

Hedera is capped at 50 billion HBAR, all minted at genesis — the network never creates new coins. The only thing adding to the tradable float is the Hedera Treasury moving about 170M HBAR from its reserve onto the market over 90 days, and nothing removes any, because Hedera runs no buyback and burns no fees. The Pressure Framework reads about +0.39% net, matching our supply monitor at +0.39% — a clean read with no gap.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 26 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads HBAR at about +0.39% net on the forward view. The only inflow is the Hedera Treasury releasing already-minted HBAR from its non-circulating reserve onto the float, at roughly 170M over 90 days; there is no offsetting buy. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +0.39%, against the framework's +0.39% for the same window — a gap of essentially zero percentage points, so no monitor-gap chip ships. HBAR is best characterized as a capped-supply chain leaking its reserve onto the market on schedule — mildly inflationary on the float, but with a fixed ceiling and a shrinking pool left to release.

Sell pressure: where new HBAR comes from

The headline fact is that Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is zero. Hedera minted all 50 billion HBAR at genesis and the network creates no new coins; the cap cannot be raised without unanimous council consent. Even staking rewards — the maximum reward rate now capped at 2.5% — are paid out of the existing treasury reserve, not freshly minted, so there is no continuous-emission inflation the way an uncapped chain has.

The real supply growth is Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — at about 170M HBAR reaching the float over the next 90 days. The Hedera Treasury holds the un-released balance and moves it into the market on a multi-year, council-directed schedule; over the past 90 days roughly 170M reached the open float, and a similar pace is expected next quarter. A nuance matters here: Hedera's treasury report shows large quarterly "releases" — a roughly 3.97B HBAR ecosystem allocation in Q2 2026 and a $55M release around June 25 2026 — but those went to ecosystem foundations and grant programs, not to market sellers, which is why the monitor's tradable float only grew about 170M. Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero because the remaining flow is treasury-directed rather than a fixed dated team or investor cliff, so it is counted under row 3, not double-booked. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, with no estate or court distribution applying to HBAR.

Buy pressure: where new HBAR goes

There is no buy pressure to report, and that is the structural point. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: Hedera runs no buyback program, so no mechanism takes HBAR off the market. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is also zero, and this is the key difference from a fee-burning chain: Hedera does not burn transaction fees. Fees are paid to the treasury and shared with council node operators, so they recirculate rather than being destroyed. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying and no new escrow announced in the window. With the buy side empty, the net read is simply the treasury-to-float release rate.

Foundation and overhang

The overhang that matters is the non-circulating treasury reserve: with about 43.5B HBAR on the float out of the 50B cap, roughly 6.5B HBAR still sits with the Hedera Treasury, allocated across initial development, purchase agreements, network operations and ecosystem development. The ecosystem foundations that received the Q2 allocation — the HBAR Foundation, the Hashgraph Association and the DLT Science Foundation — hold their HBAR off the float too, and are tracked as part of this overhang. This is not a stockpile that can dump at will: it releases on a published, council-directed schedule, and the released share is already near 94.56% of the cap in treasury-accounting terms. The framework books only the portion reaching the float as the Sell #3 flow and re-checks the treasury schedule on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if the reserve or a foundation wallet sells onto the float faster than the schedule between refreshes, that extra outflow enters Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How HBAR compares to other capped-supply chains

HBAR belongs to the class of hard-capped chains that release a pre-minted reserve over time — closer to a scheduled-distribution model than to either a halving-model coin or a continuous-emission L1. Unlike Bitcoin, which mints toward its cap through block rewards, HBAR already minted its full 50B and only moves coins from reserve to float. Unlike an uncapped proof-of-stake chain, it has a fixed ceiling and a shrinking pool left to distribute, and even its staking rewards come from the reserve rather than from new issuance.

The contrast worth drawing is with fee-burning chains. A chain that burns its base fee can offset issuance and even go net-deflationary when activity is high; HBAR has no burn at all, so its net read is purely the treasury release, with nothing pulling supply back. The result is a low, positive, and structurally declining inflation rate — declining because the un-released reserve gets smaller every quarter, so the same release pace represents a falling percentage of a growing float.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the quarterly Hedera Treasury Management Report, which publishes the actual released-supply figure and is the single source that sets the Sell #3 flow. Watch whether the ecosystem foundations that received the Q2 2026 allocation begin selling onto the float — that is the channel by which a large allocation can become real market supply. Watch for any council decision that changes the release pace or the staking algorithm, since both are council-directed rather than fixed in code. Watch whether Hedera ever introduces a fee burn or buyback — neither exists today, and either would add the first real buy-side offset. And expect the framework to keep tracking our supply monitor closely, because with no mint and no burn, the realized circulating change and the treasury-to-float release are essentially the same number.

Summary

HBAR is a hard-capped coin: 50 billion minted at genesis, with no new issuance and no fee burn. The only force on supply is the Hedera Treasury releasing about 170M HBAR from its reserve onto the float over 90 days, leaving the framework at about +0.39% net — a clean match to our supply monitor's +0.39%. The key risk is the ~6.5B reserve, including large ecosystem-foundation allocations, still to be released on the council's schedule; the key ceiling is the 50B cap itself, which no further mint can exceed. HBAR reads as mildly, steadily inflationary on the float, with the rate set to ease as the reserve shrinks.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Hedera (HBAR), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 26 2026.

CC Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Mint still ahead of the burn

MrNasdog — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 20:32:11 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/cc/inflation by MrNasdog.

Canton Coin is an uncapped burn-and-mint token: the Canton Network mints about 1.59B CC over 90 days to reward network activity, while transaction fees burn roughly 785M CC back out. The mint still outruns the burn, so the framework reads about +2.1% net — matching our supply monitor's +2.11% read of the same window. Canton Coin is structurally inflationary on the active float for now, with the burn rising toward the mint as institutional usage scales.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 25 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads CC at +2.1% net on the forward view, driven by a minting reward that out-issues the fee burn. The gross mint runs near 1.59B CC over 90 days against a fee burn of about 785M CC, leaving roughly +805M CC of net new supply on a ~38.9B circulating base. Our independent supply monitor reads the same window at +2.11%, a gap of just 0.04 percentage points — well inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap flag ships and the primary read is confirmed. Canton Coin is structurally inflationary on the active float, at a low-single-digit pace that the burn is steadily eating into.

Sell pressure: where new CC comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the whole sell side, at about 1.59B CC over the next 90 days. The Canton Network mints fresh CC in discrete rounds roughly every ten minutes and pays it to the participants who do real work: application providers, who now take about 62% of the reward pool, and Super Validators, who take around 20% and decline gradually toward mid-2029. The minting follows a front-loaded curve issuing close to 100B CC over its first ten years before settling to a flat ~2.5B a year. Two 2026 changes already trimmed the mint: a mid-January 2026 halving (around block 78,840) cut issuance per round in half and dropped the Super Validator share from 48% to 20%, and CIP-0096 set validator liveness rewards to zero on Apr 30 2026, so node uptime no longer mints CC — only real usage does. This is a minting reward, not a sale: every coin is issued in exchange for measured activity.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero, and structurally so. Canton Coin had a fair launch with no pre-mine, no venture token allocation and no team or seed schedule, so there is no cliff to unlock and nothing waiting to vest. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero: because there was no token sale, there is no foundation stockpile to release; supply enters only through the minting reward, and there is no dated discretionary release in the window. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to Canton Coin.

Buy pressure: where new CC goes

Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is the only active offset, at about 785M CC over 90 days. Every fee on Canton's Global Synchronizer is paid in CC and permanently burned, so usage directly destroys supply. The burn is accelerating: more than 1B CC has been burned cumulatively, the burned value crossed a $417M milestone in April 2026, and the recent run-rate near $1M of fees a day implies roughly 785M CC destroyed over a 90-day window. That burn is real and rising, but it still trails the mint, so it slows dilution rather than reversing it.

Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: there is no treasury buying CC on the open market, because the model removes supply through the fee burn instead. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — is zero, with no discretionary open-market buying. Buy #4 — new long-term lock — is also zero: a new Super Validator locking option (CIP-0105, approved Mar 2 2026) lets validators voluntarily lock earned rewards to keep their governance weight, but it is voluntary and carries no fixed escrow quantum, so the framework books no new long-term lock in the window. The entire buy side is the fee burn.

Foundation and overhang

Canton Coin has no classic overhang to track — there is no pre-mine, no investor token allocation, and no foundation treasury funded by a sale, so there is no stockpile that could dump on the market. The institutional names attached to Canton — Goldman Sachs, HSBC, BNY Mellon, Tradeweb, Nasdaq — backed the company Digital Asset in equity rounds, not CC token allocations, so they create no token unlock overhang. The only continuous supply force is the minting reward itself, which is paid out for activity rather than held in reserve, and the new voluntary SV locking under CIP-0105 actually pulls some earned CC out of immediate circulation rather than adding to it. Because the token is fully earned into circulation, the framework books no discretionary release beyond protocol inflation and watches the burn reports and minting schedule on a roughly bi-weekly walk. If a future disclosure reveals a controlled balance that begins to release, that outflow would enter Sell #3 at the next refresh — but as of this window there is nothing of that kind to surface.

How CC compares to other uncapped burn-and-mint chains

CC belongs to the class of uncapped burn-and-mint tokens — the same structural family as Ethereum after EIP-1559 or Solana, where new issuance and a usage-driven burn pull in opposite directions and net supply tracks activity. Unlike a hard-capped, halving-model coin, Canton Coin has no ceiling; unlike a pure inflation chain, it pairs the mint with a fee burn that scales with real network use. The result is a supply curve that bends toward equilibrium: the mint is front-loaded and steps down over a decade toward a flat ~2.5B a year, while the burn climbs with institutional throughput.

The contrast worth drawing is with fixed-supply tokens and with chains that have already crossed into net-deflationary. Canton Coin is neither yet: it is still early in its emission schedule, so the mint dominates and net supply grows at a low-single-digit pace. The bullish structural case is that the burn is designed to catch the mint as usage compounds — and the 2026 changes push that way, since the January halving and the end of validator liveness rewards both shrink the mint while the fee burn keeps climbing. At the point the two cross, CC would flip from mildly inflationary to roughly flat or net-deflationary. For an inflation lens today, though, CC reads as steadily, mildly inflationary, with the burn acting as a partial brake rather than a full offset.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the daily burn run-rate — the single number that decides whether net inflation keeps easing toward equilibrium; a sustained move above the recent ~$1M-a-day pace would close the gap with the mint quickly. Watch the next minting step-down as the front-loaded curve ages and the full effect of the April 30 2026 end of validator liveness rewards feeds through. Watch how much earned CC Super Validators lock under CIP-0105, since voluntary locking quietly removes coins from the active float. Watch institutional adoption announcements, since every new settlement flow on Canton burns CC directly. And expect the framework to re-run its realized-vs-forward end-check at each refresh against the supply monitor, which now carries a usable Canton Coin history.

Summary

Canton Coin is an uncapped burn-and-mint utility token whose supply grows on a front-loaded minting schedule and shrinks through a usage-driven fee burn. The network mints about 1.59B CC over 90 days to reward activity, while fees burn roughly 785M CC back out, leaving the framework at about +2.1% net on a ~38.9B base — in line with the supply monitor's +2.11% read. There is no vesting, no foundation stockpile and no buyback — the entire buy side is the fee burn, and the entire sell side is the minting reward. CC stays mildly inflationary on the active float for now, with a January halving, the end of validator liveness rewards, and a rising fee burn all pushing it toward the equilibrium the model is built for.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Canton Coin (CC), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 25, 2026.

BCH Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · Only mining adds supply, near a fixed cap

MrNasdog — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 20:23:26 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/bch/inflation by MrNasdog.

Bitcoin Cash issues about 0.04M BCH over 90 days from mining alone, with no buyback and no burn to offset it, so the Pressure Framework reads about +0.2% net. Our supply monitor reads +0.254% realized — a gap of about a twentieth of a percentage point. BCH is a fair-launch proof-of-work coin nearing its hard 21M cap, so new supply is small and slowing.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 25 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads BCH at +0.2% net, driven entirely by the mining block reward, with nothing on the buy side. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +0.254%, versus the framework's +0.202% deterministic issuance read for the same window — a gap of about 0.05 percentage points, well inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap chip ships. Because Bitcoin Cash has no premine, no vesting, no treasury and no burn, the reading is mechanically simple: it is a fixed, slowing proof-of-work emission near a hard cap.

Sell pressure: where new BCH comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the entire sell side, at about 0.04M BCH over the next 90 days. Bitcoin Cash mints new BCH only as the block subsidy: 3.125 BCH per block since the April 2024 halving, at a ten-minute block target of roughly 144 blocks a day. Multiply it out and the network pays miners about 40,500 new BCH per quarter — a deterministic figure, the same last 90 days as next 90 days, because proof-of-work issuance does not vary with price or governance.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero, because Bitcoin Cash was a fair launch with no premine, no team allocation and no investor vesting, so there is no cliff to reach the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero, because there is no foundation treasury or discretionary supply: every coin that exists came from mining, and there is no stockpile to release. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, since no bankruptcy estate or court-ordered distribution applies to BCH.

Buy pressure: where new BCH goes

Every buy-side row is zero. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero because Bitcoin Cash has no treasury and no protocol revenue, so there is nothing to fund open-market buying. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is zero because Bitcoin Cash does not burn transaction fees: fees are paid to miners alongside the block subsidy, not destroyed. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary buying and no new escrow announced. With no offset of any kind, the gross mining issuance is the net issuance.

Foundation and overhang

Bitcoin Cash has no overhang to enumerate. There is no foundation wallet, no team allocation, no investor unlock schedule and no buyback accumulation destination — the design has none of the custody structures the framework normally tracks. The only source of new supply is the mining reward, which is fully accounted for in Sell #1. If, against all precedent, a large dormant or claimable balance ever began moving toward the market, that outflow would enter Sell #3 at the next refresh; today there is nothing of the sort to watch.

How BCH compares to other halving-model proof-of-work coins

BCH belongs to the class of hard-capped, halving-model proof-of-work coins — the same structural family as Bitcoin and Litecoin. All three share a fixed maximum supply, a block subsidy that halves on a schedule, and issuance that comes only from mining. Unlike an uncapped proof-of-stake chain, BCH has a ceiling it is approaching: about 20.05M of 21M already mined, leaving under a million coins ever to be issued.

The contrast worth drawing is with exchange tokens and proof-of-stake L1s. An exchange token can go net-deflationary by burning revenue; an uncapped staking chain stays inflationary because it mints fresh rewards with no ceiling. BCH does neither — it has no burn to shrink supply and no uncapped emission to inflate it. The next halving, expected around April 2028, will cut the subsidy to 1.5625 BCH and roughly halve the issuance rate again, so the already-low dilution keeps stepping down toward the cap.

What to watch in the next 90 days

There is little to move the reading. The May 15 2026 "Layla" upgrade added smart-contract opcodes (loops, functions, bitwise) — it changes what BCH can do, not how much BCH exists, so it does not touch the supply ledger. Watch the block production rate — if hashrate surges and blocks come faster than the ten-minute target, issuance ticks slightly above the 0.04M estimate until the difficulty adjustment pulls it back. Watch the distance to the 21M cap, which only grows more binding over time. The next halving around April 2028 is the one scheduled event that meaningfully changes issuance, and it sits well outside this window. Absent those, BCH stays a quiet, fixed-emission read quarter after quarter.

Summary

Bitcoin Cash is a fair-launch proof-of-work coin with a hard 21M cap, and the only new supply is the mining block reward — about 0.04M BCH over 90 days at 3.125 BCH per block. With no buyback, no fee burn, no vesting and no treasury, there is nothing on the buy side, so the framework reads about +0.2% net, against +0.254% realized on our supply monitor. The reading is mechanically simple and slowly easing: dilution is already low, the network is nearing its cap, and the 2028 halving will cut issuance again.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 25, 2026.

ADA Inflation Analysis · June 2026 · A capped coin that still drips supply

MrNasdog — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 20:23:22 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/ada/inflation by MrNasdog.

Cardano releases about 440.6M ADA over 90 days from a fixed reserve into staking rewards and the treasury, while nothing on the network burns ADA back out. So the Pressure Framework reads about +1.2% net — and our supply monitor agrees, at +1.2%. The reserve drip is the whole story, and it slowly fades as the reserve shrinks toward the 45 billion cap.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending June 25 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads ADA at +1.2% net on the forward view, driven entirely by reserve-funded staking and treasury emission with no offsetting burn. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +1.2% (about 440.6M ADA of new supply), within 0.01 percentage points of the framework, so there is no monitor-gap chip. Cardano has a 45 billion hard cap and is not minted above it — but it is far from fully circulating, so the protocol keeps moving coins out of reserve every epoch. ADA is therefore mildly, structurally inflationary: supply is growing, and it is projected to keep growing at a low-single-digit pace that gently declines over time.

Sell pressure: where new ADA comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the entire story, at about 440.6M ADA over the next 90 days. This needs a careful read, because ADA is capped at 45 billion and no new coins are minted above that ceiling. Instead, new circulating supply is released from a fixed reserve that was set aside at genesis. Every 5-day epoch, the Cardano protocol moves 0.3% of whatever remains in the reserve into a reward pot. That pot is then split: 20% goes to the treasury and the rest is paid out as staking rewards. About 18 epochs fall in a 90-day window, and the reserve currently holds roughly 8.3 billion ADA — so the window releases around 440.6M ADA, all of it new float that did not exist in circulation before.

Because the release is a fixed share of a shrinking reserve, the rate is disinflationary by design: each year the reserve is smaller, so each year the drip is smaller too. The Cardano reserve has a half-life of roughly four to five years. Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: the 2017 public sale, the founding organisations and the foundation finished distributing their allocations years ago, so no cliff hits the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero as a flow; treasury spending now runs through Voltaire-era community governance, and a June 2026 proposal to fund the Cardano Summit fell short of the two-thirds threshold a treasury withdrawal needs and never executed. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, with no estate or court distribution in play for ADA.

Buy pressure: where ADA goes

This is the short half of the ledger: nothing. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero, because Cardano runs no buyback program; neither the protocol nor the treasury buys ADA on the open market. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is also zero, and this is the detail people most often get wrong about Cardano. Cardano does not burn transaction fees. Fees are collected into a pot and recycled to stakers and the treasury, so they circulate rather than disappear. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying or new escrow announced in the window, and staking on Cardano is non-locking, so delegated ADA stays liquid. With no burn and no buyback anywhere on the network, there is no force pulling supply back, so the reserve drip lands net positive.

Foundation and overhang

ADA has no classic unlock overhang — the early Cardano allocations are fully distributed. The one pool worth naming is the treasury, which receives 20% of every epoch's reward pot and now holds on the order of 1.8 billion ADA. That treasury is not a stockpile waiting to dump: it can only be spent through community governance votes, each proposal mapped to a funding category, ratified by delegate representatives, and bounded by a Net Change Limit proposed at 350M ADA for the cycle. Critically, treasury ADA is already counted supply — spending it is a reclassification, not new issuance. The framework books no discretionary treasury outflow beyond the reserve emission already counted in Sell #1, and re-checks the governance queue on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if an approved proposal pushes a large ADA sum to market, that outflow would enter Sell #3 at the next refresh.

How ADA compares to other capped proof-of-stake chains

ADA sits in an unusual middle ground: Cardano is hard-capped like Bitcoin but emits like a proof-of-stake reward chain. The cap means there is a hard ceiling and no open-ended mint, which feels like a fixed-supply token. But because most of the supply was reserved rather than pre-circulated, the protocol still releases coins every epoch — so for an inflation lens, ADA reads as mildly inflationary today, not flat. The key difference from an uncapped staking chain is direction: ADA's issuance only goes down, because it is a shrinking percentage of a shrinking reserve, where an uncapped chain can hold a flat or even rising emission.

The contrast worth drawing is with chains that pair issuance with a fee burn. Some proof-of-stake networks burn enough base fees to offset or even reverse their staking emission, which can flip them net-deflationary in busy periods. Cardano has no such brake — fees recycle instead of burning — so every coin the reserve releases lands as net new float. That makes ADA cleaner to read than a burn-and-mint chain: there is one force, the reserve drip, and it is always positive and always slowly fading.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the reserve release rate — at 0.3% of the remaining reserve per epoch, the single number that matters is how fast the reserve depletes, and it only eases from here. Watch the treasury governance queue at Intersect: an approved, large ADA proposal that actually pushes coins to market would be the one thing that lifts sell pressure beyond the reserve drip, and it would enter Sell #3. The 2026 Net Change Limit, proposed at 350M ADA, caps how much treasury ADA can leave in the cycle. Watch staking participation, since the more ADA is staked and re-staked, the slower fresh rewards reach the open float. And note that there is still no burn or buyback proposal in play for Cardano — for an inflation read, that absence is what keeps ADA mildly positive rather than flat.

Summary

ADA is a hard-capped proof-of-stake token that still drips new supply from a fixed reserve. Cardano releases about 440.6M ADA over 90 days into staking rewards and the treasury, while nothing on the network burns ADA back out, leaving the framework at about +1.2% net. Our supply monitor reads +1.2% realized — effectively the same number, because the reserve drip is exactly what it measures, so there is no monitor gap. ADA stays mildly inflationary, with issuance gently fading year over year as the Cardano reserve shrinks toward the 45 billion cap.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Cardano (ADA), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 25, 2026.

LEO Inflation Analysis · July 2026 · Fixed supply with a slow, permanent burn

MrNasdog — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 10:15:06 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/leo/inflation by MrNasdog.

UNUS SED LEO has a fixed supply and no mint, so sell pressure is zero across every row. A revenue-funded buyback-and-burn removed roughly 0.23M LEO over the last 90 days, leaving the Pressure Framework at about −0.03% net — supply edging down. Our supply monitor reads −0.03% over the same window, and the two agree to within a hundredth of a percentage point, so no monitor-gap chip ships.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending July 3 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads LEO at about −0.03% net, driven entirely by the buyback-and-burn, because LEO has no issuance of any kind. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at −0.025% — a very small, steady shrink — versus the framework's −0.025% for the same window, a gap of about 0.0 percentage points, well inside tolerance, so no ⚠ monitor-gap chip ships. An on-chain read of the Ethereum contract confirms it: LEO's ERC-20 supply held flat at 660M across the whole window, so the entire net move came from the burn and nothing else. LEO is best characterised as a fixed-supply exchange token that only ever shrinks, slowly, through a revenue-funded burn.

Sell pressure: where new LEO comes from

There is no new LEO. Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is zero because LEO has a fixed supply and no mint function: the token was capped at one billion at its 2019 sale and no new units can ever be created. This is the single most important fact about LEO's inflation profile — unlike a proof-of-stake chain or a halving-model coin, there is no issuance schedule at all, so the supply line can only stay flat or fall. The on-chain Ethereum total supply reads a fixed 660M, unchanged over the 90-day window, which is exactly what a no-mint token should show.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: LEO was fully distributed at the 2019 sale with no multi-year team, seed or treasury vesting, so no cliff ever hits the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero, because the issuer holds no locked allocation that drips into circulation, and there is no dated discretionary release pending. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to LEO.

Buy pressure: where new LEO goes

Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is the entire active story, at about 0.23M LEO over 90 days. The issuer commits to spend at least 27% of its consolidated gross monthly revenue — Bitfinex trading fees, lending and other iFinex products — repurchasing LEO on the open market and burning it on-chain permanently, and has pledged to continue that buyback indefinitely until no tokens remain in circulation. Because the destination is a burn, those coins are gone for good, and the buyback counts cleanly on the buy side. The realized pace over this window was small relative to the ~920M float — quieter than some recent quarters — which is why the net reading sits at a gentle shrink rather than a sharp one.

Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is zero and structurally so: LEO is an exchange token, not a base-layer chain, so there is no network base fee to burn. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero: there is no discretionary open-market buying outside the published buyback, and no new escrow was announced in the window. The one thing to flag under Buy #3 is contingent, not realized: LEO's founding commitment earmarks at least 80% of net proceeds from recovered 2016-hack funds for an extra buyback-and-burn — a mechanism that is now armed but has not yet fired.

Foundation and overhang

LEO has no unlock overhang. The token is fully distributed and the issuer holds no vesting tranche, no locked treasury that drips into the float, and no scheduled cliff — so there is no stockpile waiting to dump. The only continuous flow is the buyback-and-burn, which removes supply rather than adding it. The framework books no discretionary release and re-checks the public burn record on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if a treasury balance ever fell faster than the burn pace, the outflow would enter Sell #3 at the next refresh — but no such balance exists today.

How LEO compares to other exchange tokens

LEO belongs to the class of exchange tokens funded by a revenue-share buyback-and-burn — the same broad design as the major exchange coins that burn a slice of trading revenue each quarter. What separates LEO is the combination of a hard fixed supply with no mint and a buyback pledged to run until the float reaches zero. There is no issuance to outpace, so unlike an uncapped proof-of-stake chain, LEO can never dilute; the only question is how fast the burn runs.

Against a halving-model coin with a hard cap, the contrast is the direction of travel: a capped proof-of-work coin still issues new supply on a decaying schedule, while LEO issues nothing and only retires supply. Against an uncapped continuous-emission L1, the contrast is starker still — those chains are structurally inflationary, whereas LEO is structurally deflationary, with the pace set by exchange revenue rather than a block schedule. For an inflation lens, that means LEO reads as quietly, permanently shrinking: never dilutive, with the burn the sole moving part.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the public burn record — the buyback amount is the single number that decides whether net deflation stays near this −0.03% pace or quickens. Watch exchange revenue, since the buyback is funded by at least 27% of it, so a strong trading quarter lifts the burn. The bigger swing factor is the recovered 2016-hack Bitcoin: the U.S. government began its in-kind return in April 2026, and once outstanding Recovery Right Tokens are redeemed, at least 80% of the remaining net proceeds are pledged to buy back and burn LEO within 18 months — an extraordinary one-off burn that would show up as a visible step down in supply, well outside the ordinary revenue pace. And expect the framework to keep tracking our supply monitor closely, because with no issuance the two reads can only diverge by the size of the burn — a small, well-understood gap, not a structural one.

Summary

LEO is a fixed-supply exchange token with no mint, so its supply can only stay flat or fall. Every sell row is zero — no issuance, no vesting, no Foundation cliff, no bankruptcy estate — while a revenue-funded buyback burned roughly 0.23M LEO over 90 days, leaving the framework at about −0.03% net. Our supply monitor reads −0.025% realized, and the on-chain Ethereum supply held flat at 660M, so the two reads agree to within a hundredth of a percentage point. LEO stays quietly deflationary, never dilutive, with the burn the sole force on supply — and a pending hack-recovery burn the one event that could accelerate it.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of UNUS SED LEO (LEO), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 3, 2026.

DOGE Inflation Analysis · July 2026 · A fixed mint with nothing to burn it back

MrNasdog — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 01:20:33 +0000

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/doge/inflation by MrNasdog.

Dogecoin mints exactly 10,000 DOGE per block, about one block a minute, adding roughly 1.3B DOGE over 90 days. There is no buyback, no burn and no treasury offset, so every new coin is net new supply. The Pressure Framework reads about +0.84% net, in line with our supply monitor at +0.81%.

The verdict, in one paragraph

For the 90-day window ending July 1 2026, the MrNasdog Pressure Framework reads DOGE at +0.84% net on the forward view, driven entirely by the fixed block reward — there is nothing on the buy side to offset it. Our supply monitor reads the realized last-90-day change at +0.81%, essentially matching the framework's +0.84% gross-emission read for the same window — a gap of just 0.03 percentage points, well inside tolerance, so no monitor-gap flag ships. DOGE is structurally inflationary at a low, steady pace: roughly 5B new coins a year, on a percentage base that grows each year, so the inflation rate slowly drifts down even though the coin count per day never changes.

Sell pressure: where new DOGE comes from

Sell #1 — protocol inflation — is the whole story, at about 1.3B DOGE over the next 90 days. Dogecoin pays a fixed reward of 10,000 DOGE to the miner of every block, and the network targets about one block per minute. That works out to roughly 14.4M DOGE a day, near 5B a year, and about 1.3B across this 90-day window. Crucially, this reward never halves: unlike a capped, halving-model coin, Dogecoin set the reward to a flat 10,000 per block in 2015 and has issued at that pace ever since. Because the reward is constant, the last 90 days and the next 90 days mint the same amount.

Sell #2 — vesting unlocks — is zero: Dogecoin launched in December 2013 as a fair launch, with no presale, no team allocation and no investor round, so there is no vesting schedule and no cliff can hit the market. Sell #3 — Foundation and unscheduled unlocks — is also zero: the Dogecoin Foundation holds no large mintable allocation, and all supply enters the same way, through mining, with no discretionary release dated in the window. Sell #4 — long-term locked or bankruptcy — is zero, because no bankruptcy estate or court distribution applies to DOGE.

Buy pressure: where DOGE goes

Every buy-side row is zero, and that is the defining feature of Dogecoin's supply. Buy #1 — programmatic buyback — is zero: there is no protocol revenue and no mechanism that spends money buying DOGE off the open market. Buy #2 — protocol fee burn — is zero: transaction fees are paid to miners as part of their reward, not destroyed, so the network burns nothing. Buy #3 — Foundation buy — and Buy #4 — new long-term lock — are both zero, with no discretionary open-market buying and no new escrow announced in the window. With nothing on the buy side, the gross mint and the net supply change are the same number.

Foundation and overhang

Dogecoin has no unlock overhang in the usual sense — there is no treasury stockpile, no team cliff and no investor schedule waiting to dump, because none of those allocations ever existed. The only ongoing source of new supply is the block reward itself, which flows to miners who are free to sell or hold. The Dogecoin Foundation, re-formed in 2021, funds development through donations rather than a token allocation, so it cannot mint supply. A listed corporate DOGE treasury vehicle now holds a few hundred million DOGE, but it acquires those coins on the open market — that is buy-side demand, not a mintable overhang, and it adds nothing to supply. The framework therefore books no discretionary release beyond protocol inflation, and re-checks the chain emission and any governance change on a roughly bi-weekly walk; if a treasury balance or a reward change ever appeared, it would enter the ledger at the next refresh.

How DOGE compares to other proof-of-work coins

DOGE belongs to the class of uncapped proof-of-work coins with a flat, non-halving emission — which makes it unusual. A halving-model coin cuts its block reward on a schedule, so its inflation rate falls in steps and its supply approaches a hard ceiling. Dogecoin has no ceiling and no halving: it adds the same 10,000 coins per block forever. The one thing that does fall over time is the inflation rate, because the fixed 5B-a-year mint is divided into a circulating base that keeps growing — so a constant coin count becomes a shrinking percentage each year.

The contrast worth drawing is with coins that pair issuance with a burn or a buyback to offset dilution. Dogecoin does neither, so its net supply change equals its gross mint with no brake at all. That makes it one of the cleaner inflation reads in the framework: there is exactly one source of new supply, it is fully predictable, and nothing pulls in the other direction.

What to watch in the next 90 days

Watch the block reward itself — a proposal to cut the reward from 10,000 to 1,000 DOGE per block has been discussed, but that proposal is now closed and never reached consensus, and any change would need a coordinated hard fork to take effect; until that happens, the 10,000-per-block pace holds. Watch block times, since the network targets one block a minute and small variances are what separate the framework's gross mint from the monitor's realized count. And watch for any new Foundation or treasury mechanism — there is none today, but a new buyback or lock would be the only thing capable of changing this coin's otherwise flat, one-directional supply math.

Summary

DOGE is an uncapped proof-of-work coin whose supply grows by a fixed, non-halving block reward. The chain mints about 1.3B DOGE over 90 days — roughly 14.4M a day at 10,000 per block — while the buy side is completely empty: no buyback, no burn, no treasury buying. That leaves the framework at about +0.84% net, matching our supply monitor at +0.81%. DOGE stays mildly inflationary, with the coin count per day fixed and the inflation rate slowly drifting down only because the circulating base keeps growing underneath it.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Dogecoin (DOGE), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated July 1, 2026.