DEV Community: Raymond Karim Roberts

The Only Strategy You Need to find your Development Target

Raymond Karim Roberts — Tue, 26 Nov 2019 07:00:00 +0000

Who is your customer? Earlier this year I sat in on a presentation featuring an aircraft that will "possibly" replace the Boeing V-22 Osprey. The V-22 Osprey is a multi-mission military aircraft that has been in active military service since 2000. While this may not sound like a long time that the aircraft has been in service, it is worth mentioning that the original contract for an aircraft that combined the functionality of a conventional helicopter with vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, and the high-speed cruise performance of a turboprop aircraft was originally awarded to the Bell and Boeing helicopter companies in joint in 1983. The V-22 first flew in 1989.

A vehicle for which original original plans were completed and submitted almost 40 years ago is in active service currently and does things like this...

Coming back to the presentation, we were hearing about the replacement for the vehicle. The release time they are targeting is over ten years away, the team is planning for 25 years of operational life for the newer aircraft. Think about that. The architects and developers are designing an aircraft today, which will be relied upon for very important, possibly life or death situations, that will be be expected to be current ten years from now, and minimum remain competitive for a few decades following that release date. How does a team accomplish this? How do they hit the mark in the future when they have no way of knowing where the future will be?

The answer is that, they kinda do. I mean not exactly, but they have a proxy. One of the lead architects began talking about the dashboard panel for this new aircraft. The individual opened up by speaking about his pilot. He made the comment that the first pilots who will be flying this thing are currently about 8 years old. For this reason they built their design around what 8 year olds are currently familiar with.....cell phones, tablets, and touch screens. The ability to zoom images with your hands, move various applications operating in real time. Overlays.

Think about that. While the plane will be operated by adult military personnel, and indeed they are working with adult military personnel to design and build the aircraft, they are not building it for those adults pilots. They are rather building for their real user; children.

I can tell you that I have sat in many planning meetings and sessions. Many marketing awareness workouts. I do not believe that I have actively engaged many groups designing things for the future adults rather than the adults as they know them today. Their previous success, and most likely follow on success centers around the idea of aiming for where the target will be, versus where the target is at. I mean seriously, who outside of toy companies talks about doing it for the kids? Okay he doesn't count.

Interdiction Missions

My prior military service results in this analogy continuing to be comfortable,so hopefully you are still with me. In the military we had a concept of interdiction, that is, engaging a moving target. The concept was to first take the information you had available, ideally the direction the target is moving, and the speed with which it is moving. Next, you examined your current position, distance and direction. Using all of these inputs, you could then adjust your direction and speed, so that your course would intersect with the course of the target. What makes it an interdiction is that the courses not only intersect, but they do so at the same time.

I am a data scientist by trade, but I believe this mindset of meeting your target applies both to data, engineering, and software initiatives alike. If you are estimating 5 years to fully develop your product, five years of selling your product as the main line selling product, and a 15 year use life, what does that initial customer look like for your product ten years from now? Are they in the beginning, middle, or end of their career? Is the demographic getting younger or older over time. Is there evidence of changes in their education levels? I remember an example where we were designing a product and we were bringing in individuals from the profession for their feedback. We were getting very positive reviews. The main positive feedback we kept getting is about how cutting edge our product was compared to products made in the 1980's. It took us a while to realize that with our development schedule, our first customers were going to be in their 30's in 2020. This cohort was not going to be impressed with technology that outpaced the 1980's. This generation has no concept of the 1980's except for Stranger Things. And even then, they will be expecting some pretty out of this world stuff.

School is in Tech-session

Another great example of this approach is the University of Arizona under the Leadership of Michael Crow. In his book Designing the New American University, Michael talks about how the goal of becoming not just a tier one research university, but also a public university. The school made the active goal of doing more than simply attaining respectable rankings, they wanted to align their school with the purpose of supporting and positively impacting the regional community. This meant tearing down traditional structures that demanded that students conform to them, and designing reflexive structures that took into account the students coming in, the world that they would leave the college from, and ensuring that the school was an appropriate bridge between the two.

Instead of telling students to turn off their electronics when the school day started, the school began actively working to embed technology into the learning and life experience. Engaging students through their devices. Offering more and more online and interactive coursework. Leveraging technology for collaboration outcomes, not just between students working on projects, but also teachers in designing and proctoring courses and lectures. Instead of telling students about what the work environment will be looking for when they graduate, the school engaged in collaborations with corporations big and small to create co-ops. These opportunities proved a win for students seeking confirmation that what they were learning was relevant, and resulted in ownership from the corporations engaged, who naturally hired many of the students they worked with alongside University Research faculty. Students are actively recruited to be on school planning committees alongside faculty and administrative leadership. There are even active interactions with high schools and veteran services offices (to name a few) to get a head start on ensuring proper alignment with the customer, that is, the student.

Summary

To tie this up, the best strategy for building solutions for customers in the fast pace, and continually evolving world we have today, given technology, is to attain a distance, a direction, and speed of moment of your customer, and build a plan to meet them where they are going to be, rather than going to where they are at, and hoping they will be there when you arrive. The customer is wanting to meet you. THEY WANT TO SEE YOU!!

Meet your customer where they will be....

Plan an interdiction course!

Thank you for taking the time to read through these concepts!

While it is labeled as a book for College and University Admins, I highly recommend Micheal Crow's book Designing the New American University. If gives a fresh real world example of meeting your target where your target will be. Whether you found this writing on (or off) mission and would like to chat about it, are looking for more material, or want to talk about other visions, I am always game! Contact me to talk more about strategic data science and technology planning. My email is raymond.k.roberts@gmail.com

Bill Gates Is Right, Adjust Your Focus

Raymond Karim Roberts — Fri, 15 Nov 2019 21:13:23 +0000

While my profession is as a data scientist, I often share that what I feel sets me out, and yes, above many of my peers is a background filled with an array of experiences and educations, and further an ability to reflect and transfer these experiences and educations. I started my life as a military officer and continued on to business before getting into the data driven life. The military, economics, and business all gave me great insight about how humans truly behave, and how to see how they truly behave.

An influential writing for me is and remains Economic Sophisms by Frederic Bastiat, French Economist from the early 19th century. While the author’s intended subject scope was public policy regarding economics, his ideas have a wide range of application. He talks about "seeing what cannot be seen". I would like to apply the idea here.

I get it....

First, let me say that this is funny and I get it.

Now, I find more similarity in both times depicted than I do differences. Moreover, I think Bill nailed it on the head. In both these pictures there was a general public paying attention to one thing instead of another. I argue that a bait and switch has occurred here. Online attributes the quote to George W Bush:

" We judge ourselves by our best intentions, and others by their worst actions"

In 1989, pop culture was not following Bill Gates the way he is followed now. In 1989 the greatest technologies were not being used to follow Gates, but rather pop stars and movie stars and royals. Television, video, etc........the average person was not using this to achieve the highest human form, but rather more often lower. Do some research on how VHS beat Beta......cause it wasn't for providing better quality copies of "The Princess Bride" to all the public middle and high schools.

Are the masses doing the cat thing? Yes. I personally like them also. Having said that, Bill Gates nailed it. I love nothing more than hearing about some kid who came up from the slums of India who made an app that is now making millions disrupting the commercial airline industry. The sister whose autistic brother motivated her to create an online healthcare exchange that would become the predecessor to the US government healthcare exchange system. The father whose diabetic son and wife lead him to quit his day job and create an automated insulin distribution system. This is happening no longer at MIT or CalTech like in 1989. This is happening in no longer only in houses prosperous enough to have a garage. This is now happening in apartments, schools, in jails.

I was walking around last night in the grocery store and saw Christmas decorations out, I came across a remote control, wireless remote-adapter for Christmas lights. Even thought I have never done anything like, I was briefly amazed that I KNOW that if I wanted to, I could make that by myself for the cost of a raspberry Pi computer (which I still have not taken out of the box). It was an empowering moment.

Okay, so maybe not that serious. I still content that the day's of "It takes money to make money" are not over, but their absolute reign definitely is. Technology, and the democratization of it, I argue is the leading cause. When some hear "Power to the People" they imagine someone holding a rifle in the air. I imagine someone holding a computer with connectivity. When I imagine the 2019 computer owner, I do not imagine a cat complaining at a table, but rather a 'cat' running the table.

So when I say that Bill Gates had it right, this is not inferring he knew the future. I am rather saying that comparing the best of 1989 with...the not best of 2019 is sleight of hand.

Check out Frederic Bastiat! If you use one of the links I provided Amazon cuts me into the normal pricing as an associate!

Thanks for reading!

I would love to hear your thoughts as well. Please feel free to reach out to me at raymond.k.roberts@gmail.com

6 Literacies and Competencies You Didn’t Know You Need…But You Do.

Raymond Karim Roberts — Sat, 24 Aug 2019 22:42:40 +0000

I just finished the book Robot-Proof: Higher Education in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (The MIT Press) written by Joseph Aoun, the President of Northeastern University. While the author’s intended audience is other individuals within the academic community, I found the model which he built his message around one worth sharing. The premise of the book is a call to arms to the higher learning community, stating the current situation in the world one where machines are competing directly against the wider human workforce at a magnitude and speed like never before. Indeed technology as destroyed jobs before, resulting in workers both willing and able needing to retool, and for workers not both willing and able being left out in the cold. What is pointed out is that at each of these pivotal moments in society, individuals sought education as a counter. Factory workers replaced by machines learned how to operate and repair the machines. Economists who before created models “by hand” , now utilize data science tools. Where I feel this book is applicable to our business is the framework he provides for the literacy and cognitive competencies, and his articulation of near and far transfer of learning.

The 6 Literacies

Most of us are familiar with half of the list presented in the book; reading, writing, and arithmetic. The argument presented is that for the majority of explosion of the middle class in most of the world’s middle-class populations, these three knowledge areas were most closely correlated to the earnings potential, job stability, and an individuals demand in the market. The presence of technology however has threatened this relationship. Machines are not able to read books and even provide critiques of them. Machines are actually writing news articles to a level audiences can not tell they were not written by humans. Law firms are using software to read through documents to find necessary discovery information. Even the most complex math we are finding that computers are having little trouble handling. This leads to the necessity for individuals to possess levels of acumen in three additional literary areas; data, technology, and humanities.

DATA literacy centers around the current reality that we have more information being created, transmitted, and stored than ever before. Individuals today have an incentive to understand this body of information surrounding their everyday life. While everyone will not be expected to be an expert in time-series analysis, individuals would best serve themselves understanding better visualization formats for time, understanding relations of data sets across time. Basic univariate (one variable) descriptive statistics like mean, and the median. Bivariate statistics to describe relationships between two items. The big picture frameworks that previously were only required for management is really now a need for all individuals on the team.

TECHNOLOGY literacy centers around the need to have insight into how the tools around us work. When machines first began to be adopted into society, there was a closer relationship between being able to use a machine, and knowing how the machine works. Early cars required an understanding on how they worked in order to use them. The opportunity cost of how much technology has been democratized is the fact that an understanding of how technology works is beyond most individuals. Individuals today have an incentive to now just know how to use their cell phone, or Tensor-Flow 2.0, but have some level of understanding how these technologies work.

HUMANITIES literacy centers around the group of studies that previously were seen only useful to smaller subsets of society. Psychology, Philosophy, Politics, Economics, and History. Only a decade ago, I remember being told the joke that the fastest way to your parent’s basement was through an anthropology degree. If you the list of the top ten most in demand jobs that LinkedIn post every October, you will see that things have definitely changed. Data science, data analyst, and user experience (A job that didn’t even exist a decade ago) teams are filled with individuals with backgrounds in these areas. Organizations are finding that the humanities are needed more than ever as we navigate what Moore (1985) called the ‘policy vacuums’ that technology creates. Data privacy, data governance, market segmentation, net effects of tools more a part of societies’ everyday activities, how individuals can be expected to misuse technology. Internally to organizations, collaboration and communication are main premises of AGILE teams. Data ethics concerns requires individuals to have a respect for these areas of knowledge.

So you are good now....

....but wait wait, there is more!

Cognitive Competencies:

The literacy group of six presented above are the areas of knowledge that we need to know. The cognitive competencies following are not about what you know, but rather how you think and perceive,how you process information. While computers are more and more able to compete and actually beat humans in processing digital quantitative information with which they have previous experience, humans remain far superior in processing analog qualitative information with which they have never seen before. The following competencies assist an individual in this ability.

CRITICAL THINKING is the sole member of this list from ‘the old days’. Many of us can remember in college or maybe even high school, syllabi that had this category for the areas that were focused on for the education. A Big Picture definition is rational, logic based approaches to situations.

SYSTEMS THINKING is the ability to examine and perceive environments, situations, events, machines, and interactions holistically. Many best selling business books speak on the negative outcomes associated with “silo mentality”. The reality of the situation however is that it is not only management and C-level individuals who need to internalize this message. Agile brings teams the concept of “the definition of done”. Only a couple decades ago, the manufacturing community was given the book The Goal, talking about better processes for running a shop. Many of those same firms today are using, and embedding software into their products. This is the reason the development operations (DevOps) book “The Phoenix Project” was written. A recommended read, but premised around the idea is that firms that use to build hardware are more and more building software, and that this tech and software world is really no different than the manufacturing floor of yesterday, except now many of your stations are harder to see visually.

image of a WW2 plane that returned from mission highlighting the bullet hole misconception. The area of interest is not where the planes were shot, but rather where they were not shot

ENTREPRENEURSHIP is the ability to create something new. A traditional approach to the term entrepreneur may lead some to believe there is no context outside of a self employed or business owner setting. The companies of today and tomorrow actually require individuals who approach their tasking from a point of view of creativity. Technology is moving so fast that it is no longer reasonable to expect that a service or product provided today will be desired tomorrow, or that it will be brought to fruition in the same ways. It is estimated that for children in grade school in the world, 65% of the jobs they will take do not yet exist.

CULTURAL AGILITY is the ability to understand and interact with different environments. There is a difference between and international and a global firm. An international firm is one with operations in numerous countries, but centralized authority from their home office. A globalized firm allows autonomy at the various country branches to better address regional concerns. Such firms are needing people with these mindsets capable of adjusting to different areas, and more importantly arriving to today’s problem with insightful contributions and solutions from their diverse interactions and experiences from yesterday.

Near and Far Learning Transfer:

Another strong separation between our best machines and the average four year old; our ability to apply learning almost anywhere. This is a skill set that again is highly desirable and one an individual can work on and thus improve. Learning would not be very beneficial if we are only able to apply it in the specific situations that it was taught. This is often the critique of certain schoolhouse education approaches that do not correlate with workforce success as they do school house success. Our desire is that our learning can be transferred to other areas. A mathematics background being applied in economics or data science can be viewed as a near transfer; while there is not a 100% overlap, there is much in common between the original education and the destination application area. Far transfers are where humans outperform computers. It is a human ability to take an algorithm created in data science to predict fracture patterns of frozen ice, and adapt it to predict the “fracture” patterns of social media conversations between partisan political groups.

Summary:

While technology today is impacting society at a rate and magnitude like never before, the action is still the same. Individuals can respond very much the way individuals have always responded; adopting new areas of knowledge, and provide as products and services the cognitive skills that machines to date have never been able to attempt. Whether building personal acumen, resumes, or creating a team of personnel to face the challenges of day, these frameworks indeed can provide a useful model to minimum start the race, if not get you across the finish line.

Raymond K Roberts

Below are links to the author’s book and some video presentations of his.
Robot Proof: Higher Education in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

3 minute video
60 minute video

I would love to hear your thoughts as well. Please feel free to reach out to me at raymond.k.roberts@gmail.com

Originally Posted in Medium July 9, 2019