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All you need to know - 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix preview

Tracing Insights — Fri, 01 Mar 2024 12:07:01 +0000

Formula 1 kicks off its 2024 season with the Bahrain Grand Prix, held at the Bahrain International Circuit from February 29 to March 2. The schedule is adjusted due to Ramadan, with practice and qualifying preceding the race. Teams arrive armed with knowledge from pre-season testing, particularly on the abrasive track that demands traction and braking stability for optimal performance.

Track Evolution and Weather:

Limited track evolution is observed throughout the weekend, primarily influenced by temperature changes. With two out of three practice sessions held in the heat of the day, obtaining accurate race data becomes challenging. Additionally, wind conditions, especially the intensity of the wind and the direction of it can affect braking points.

Braking:

One of the key factors in Bahrain is braking stability. The track features several heavy braking zones, such as Turn 1, Turn 4 and Turn 14, where the drivers decelerate from over 300 km/h to around 60 km/h in a matter of seconds. This puts a lot of stress on the brakes and the tyres, and requires a lot of precision and confidence from the drivers. Any mistake or lock-up can compromise the lap time or even lead to a spin or a crash.

Another crucial aspect in Bahrain is traction. The track has many slow-speed corners that require good acceleration out of them, such as Turn 1, Turn 4, Turn 10, and Turn 14. Drivers need to have a car that can deliver a strong rear grip and minimize wheelspin, as this can affect the tyre performance and wear.

One of the most difficult corners on the track is Turn 10, a long, combined corner entry that tightens before dropping away at the apex. The drivers have to brake while completing the wide corner arc of Turn 9, which makes the front-left tyre go light and increases the risk of a lock-up. This corner can make or break a lap time, as well as a race result.

In the final sector, it is vital not to make the slightest error: you need to exit Turn 15 just right so as not to allow those behind to close up, because on the main straight, the DRS means an attack is always a possibility. A total of 18% of lap time is spent under braking.

The race will start after sunset and therefore it will be held under artificial lights that create a spectacular atmosphere. However, one thing that we will not be able to see are the incandescent carbon discs that used to glow in the dark, as they have been replaced by lenticular wheel covers that were introduced in 2022 to improve aerodynamics and safety.

Car Setup:

The focus for car set-up is on optimizing low and medium-speed corner performance. Mechanical grip is crucial out of the slower corners, whilst the high-speed sections are easily taken flat-out.

Tyre Degradation and strategy:

Owing to the abrasiveness of the track, which is one of the roughest of the season, tyre degradation tends to be amongst the highest seen at any race across the calendar. The rear tyres are especially important in Bahrain, as they are exposed to high temperatures and degradation due to the longitudinal forces and the rough asphalt.

To preserve the rear tyres in the race, the drivers have to be very smooth and gentle with the throttle application. Any excessive or unnecessary wheelspin can increase the tyre temperature and wear, and compromise the race pace and strategy. Drivers have to find the right balance between pushing hard and saving tyres especially when accelerating out of the corners, and always drive a bit below the limit of the rear tyre slip.

The track also has some high-speed corners that challenge the aerodynamic performance of the car, such as Turn 6, Turn 7 and Turn 12. These corners put lateral forces on the tyres and can also cause overheating and thermal degradation. Drivers have to be careful not to overdrive these corners and lose time or damage the tyres.

Last year, a two-stopper using the C1 and the C3 was the favoured strategy, with the C2 used by only one team (McLaren).

Overtaking Opportunities:

The Sakhir circuit is not only fast and technical, but also offers plenty of opportunities for overtaking and duels. There are three main spots where drivers can try to pass their rivals: Turns 1, 4, and 11. These corners are also equipped with DRS zones, which give an extra boost to the cars behind. According to the data, 65% of all overtakes in Bahrain have used DRS. The most popular spot is Turn One, where drivers can brake late and dive inside. However, this also opens the door for a counterattack into Turn Four, which is another tight corner.

Key Statistics:

The Bahrain Grand Prix has been held since 2004, and it has seen some of the best drivers in history battle for glory. The most successful driver is Lewis Hamilton, who has won five times, followed by Sebastian Vettel with four wins and Fernando Alonso with three. Alonso is also the only driver on the grid who participated in the inaugural race in 2004. Last year, Max Verstappen broke the dominance of Mercedes and Ferrari by taking his first win in Bahrain, ending a 10-year drought for Red Bull.

This article first appeared on TracingInsights.com

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I've looked at 14,000,605 scenarios and Max wins every time

Tracing Insights — Wed, 07 Sep 2022 14:48:50 +0000

Before the race, every driver expected Max to win quite comfortably. This isn’t without a reason, dominant performances at Hungary and Spa set this expectation.

Max had car issues during Free practice sessions which didn’t help RBR to maximize their car setup and Mercedes looked quick taking P1,P2 in FP1.

Let’s take a look at the race and how it transpired:

Max vs Lewis on Mediums:

Max put on mediums after his first pit stop on lap 18, meanwhile Lewis started on mediums and switched to mediums for his 3rd stint on lap 48. And the above data include both Lewis’ stints.
From the above chart, it looks like Lewis was pushing on his mediums for first 5 laps and then the tires slowly degrade and after around 20 laps they start to impact the lap times.
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On the other hand, Max was conserving his tyres. Towards the end of the stint he was maintaining almost constant lap times showing essentially with zero tyre degradation.
For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume both cars are on equal race pace on mediums.

Max vs Lewis on Hards:

After his first stint on mediums Lewis switched to Hards on Lap 29 and was putting in quali laps every lap.
The peak on Lewis lap times is when he encountered traffic and had to overtake Checo. Just when he made the move stick, Seb entered from the pitstop on to the track just ahead of Lewis.
During the live broadcast, Crofty mentioned Lewis lost about 3 seconds due to this.
In short, it looks like Max was about 0.3 s faster than Lewis on hards.
Every driver is pushing on the hards either to get them to optimal temperature window or because they don’t need to worry about tyre degradation as much.
Strategy also played a key role in drivers having better performance for hards. Other than Lando, Fernando and Goatifi every drivers stint on hard compound lasted less than 25 laps.

TimeLine:

On Lap 44, the gap between Lewis and Max was at 16.4s favoring Max and he was yet to pit.
On Lap 46, we witnessed Yuki’s car trouble and upon investigation FIA concluded it was a diff issue
Both Lewis and Max made their pitstops under vsc conditions on Lap 48. Lewis was on the radio thanking the crew “Let’s go guys! Good pitstop”.
On Lap 49, the gap was ~19s, with Max on hards and Lewis with mediums.
Math:

Firstly, to account for car difference and other factors, everything is converted into Lewis laptimes.
Fuel corrected average Lap time for Lewis on mediums first stint is 74.447 s
Fuel corrected average Lap time for Lewis on hards stint is 74.290 s. Take away 3 seconds lost in traffic the average comes down to 74.113 s
Max is ~0.3s faster and we still have 23 laps to finish the race, so let’s take away 0.3s from Lewis hards stint, which gives us 73.813
In short, Lewis expected mediums laptime is 74.447 s vs Max expected hards laptime of 73.813.
The difference is 0.634 s in favor of Max.
At the end of 23 remaining laps, Max would’ve been 14.582 s ahead, without even accounting for the existing gap of 19s.
The hards were the best performing compound this race, and also Max has the superior top speed on the straights.
Feel free to use these calculations for any other simulations.

🤌🤌🤌 Next race is the Italian Grand Prix at Monza 🤌🤌🤌
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Read the math behind calculating Tyre Degradation here:

Ferrari Disaster Class: Is Hard compound ever going to work? A deep-analysis of tire degradation

Mediums are the best compound for the race, Hards are a second slower

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Meme of the race:

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