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Discussion on: Why Software Developers Suck at Estimating Time (And How to Fix It)

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Pavel Morava

I can assure you that not only software development fails to estimate project times.

In fact, psychologists conducted several experiments and proved that human beings tend to be way too optimistic in their estimation.

As for the data-driven approach, I wonder if it just doesn't create another hassle that contributes to the complexity of project management.

My real life method is simpler. Take your estimation, multiply it by two, and somewhere in between these two values lies the point of interest.

Its location depends heavily on complexity, familiarity, and vis major.