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Discussion on: 20 Fantastically Bad Predictions Made About Computing and Technology

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jmfayard profile image
Jean-Michel πŸ•΅πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ Fayard • Edited

All 20 quotes are good.

Though I would say they don't really give you a full picture of what happened.

In your storytelling it seems that technology always win! If that's the case, predicting the future would be really easy indeed.

But here is techno-skeptical prediction that has hold out really well in the last 30 years

No Silver Bullet

There is no single development, in either technology or management
technique, which by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude
improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity.
β€” Essence and Accident in Software Engineering

Frederick P. Brooks, Jr.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

So what about another list of technologics claims that flopped hard?

I think you would find a lot to say as well.

  • we will have flying cars in year 2000!
  • internet will bring democracy in China!
  • XML will solve all interopability issues!
  • Rewriting Netscape from scratch will work out really well!
  • Theranos will be a new area of medicine!
  • Blockchain will disrupt entire industries and reinvent democracy!
  • WeWork will be a 100 billion dollars tech company in real estate!
  • ...

Please complete the list πŸ˜€

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codemouse92 profile image
Jason C. McDonald

Rewriting Netscape from scratch will work out really well!

It's called Firefox.

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jmfayard profile image
Jean-Michel πŸ•΅πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ Fayard • Edited

Nope.

The rewrite of Netscape was called Mozilla and was a disaster as explained in this classical article

Things You Should Never Do : rewrite your software from scratch (Joel on Software)

Firefox came later and was the simplification of Mozilla.

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codemouse92 profile image
Jason C. McDonald • Edited

So Firefox was the rewrite of Mozilla, the rewrite of Netscape. Meaning, by a separation of one iteration, Firefox is a rewrite-from-scratch of Netscape. And it turned out well. ;)

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thorstenhirsch profile image
Thorsten Hirsch

Jean-Michel is right - it was a disaster for Netscape. It was the cause for the company's bankruptcy (that's what their ex-employees say themselves!). Mozilla/Firefox source code was given away for free when the company was practically gone. And the software was way behind Internet Explorer in those days.

It took developers 2 or 3 years to make Mozilla/Firefox a decent product and it took several more years until one could say that it was a success. Netscape was long gone by then.