Estimations have no value for development; they are a necessity of management in order to be able to plan. However, neither an estimation nor a plan ever survived the battle with reality.
The main reason is that estimations are one-dimensional, while reality knows the dimensions known effort, unknown effort (risk) and external dependencies. Only the first dimension can be estimated to near precision with enough experience, everything else is guesswork.
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Estimations have no value for development; they are a necessity of management in order to be able to plan. However, neither an estimation nor a plan ever survived the battle with reality.
The main reason is that estimations are one-dimensional, while reality knows the dimensions known effort, unknown effort (risk) and external dependencies. Only the first dimension can be estimated to near precision with enough experience, everything else is guesswork.