I loved reading this, very interesting and also very informative around the knee jerk rules of thumb and the reason why models of the same phenomena diverge.
To build your model for a person we'd also need to know about how many families they had seen with 3 children in their general life, the prevalence of girls vs boys in their family etc. Also the likelihood of having a third female child increases when previous offspring have all been girls too, it can also have medical implications (my ex-wife is suspected of miscarrying male children due to a genetic condition) - so much to factor in...
At the individual level models can seem meaningless, even unfair, but on a societal level they are vital for understanding and decision support.
Exactly, the idea is to have a position on your “architecture” of the model, but by being open and doing math you are “showing your work” so others can contribute and improve. These statistical models are much more powerful than human intuition/expertise as they are: consistent, fair, consider various input, can be less biased if performed with diverse opinions.
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I loved reading this, very interesting and also very informative around the knee jerk rules of thumb and the reason why models of the same phenomena diverge.
To build your model for a person we'd also need to know about how many families they had seen with 3 children in their general life, the prevalence of girls vs boys in their family etc. Also the likelihood of having a third female child increases when previous offspring have all been girls too, it can also have medical implications (my ex-wife is suspected of miscarrying male children due to a genetic condition) - so much to factor in...
At the individual level models can seem meaningless, even unfair, but on a societal level they are vital for understanding and decision support.
Thanks again.
Exactly, the idea is to have a position on your “architecture” of the model, but by being open and doing math you are “showing your work” so others can contribute and improve. These statistical models are much more powerful than human intuition/expertise as they are: consistent, fair, consider various input, can be less biased if performed with diverse opinions.