Great post. I think the idea of ChatGPT replacing human programmers has a lot in common with the idea of all programming jobs being outsourced as low-wage, almost assembly-line-like labor. That idea was very prevalent in the USA when I was growing up and studying computer science, but it never happened.
These ideas both come from over-simplistic conceptions of what it takes to build software beyond just sitting down and typing on a keyboard.
Of course low-wage outsourcing did become a major part of the software landscape, and ChatGPT very well might too. But as you say, if it ever gets to where it can replace most or all programmers, it will be able to replace most other knowledge workers too.
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Great post. I think the idea of ChatGPT replacing human programmers has a lot in common with the idea of all programming jobs being outsourced as low-wage, almost assembly-line-like labor. That idea was very prevalent in the USA when I was growing up and studying computer science, but it never happened.
These ideas both come from over-simplistic conceptions of what it takes to build software beyond just sitting down and typing on a keyboard.
Of course low-wage outsourcing did become a major part of the software landscape, and ChatGPT very well might too. But as you say, if it ever gets to where it can replace most or all programmers, it will be able to replace most other knowledge workers too.