I've been cruising through this industry long enough to understand the obvious and definitive signs of upcoming layoffs, from both an IC and middle management perspective.
First, and I want this to come across very meaningfully, they're often organized by one or two people with minimal information about who they're laying off in a sorted manner.
I want to dive in a little bit more here and then quickly begin the guide. Your personal manager likely found out the day of, or the week of, at the earliest. They are impacted, even if they remain. In terms of why the chose you, it can range. From truly deserving, but more often than not, you fell midway through an arbitrarily ordered list. Such as how many tickets or points this quarter, how many mentions of gratitude, or a review of your performance without any context from the person you reported to.
HR is given a template conversation to execute, it's never personal. I would not target your frustration towards them. It's a very draining job.
Now the guide.
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I'm sure we've all been there. The inflated performance metrics, displayed in all their glory across a tackily formatted slide for all to aw at. Now, do you ever catch a self affirming reconstruction of why that particular metric although not great, is nothing to worry about? In the industry, some would call this talent retention, others would call it foreboding.
If you're in a small to medium sized start up, and you hear that kind of metric waffling, a medium are smaller non profitable start up that is already tightening the belt on performance, that is your queue to start your search. The chance of not having some form of layoff with the next one to two quarters is below 5%. In all my years I've never seen a sinking ship begin to fly.
This is the real life equivalent of a smaller guy puffing out his chest, he's going to get a whooping, but for a few seconds in his head he feels invincible. Same here, I wouldn't bet on that company anymore than I'd risk my money on inflated lungs guy.
So here's the thing, any real unicorn company, not some pump and dump, or pump and sell for parts grows way faster than your 10 year mountain mess. The unicorns that exist today, and realistically only unicorn start ups and finite businesses make it, had rapid growth in their first two years. They were like rockets, and you just watched a dud give a speech. I'm not impressed.
They over hire and under fire, like you'all spin up resources in your elastic infra of choice. More rantings on over inflated under needed value of elastic to come in another write up.
That boring power point, is your 1-2 quarter new job take off strip. Use it or lose it.
Here come the week of, or near term signals, and what you can do to protect yourself in the event you voluntarily decided to stay. Managers have feelings like regular humans, they WILL behave differently once they know you're on the block. This is your 11th hour notice to back up what you need. I recommend all or some of this following if not more:
- download all your performance reports
- download pay stubs
- screenshot any positive attributions of your work
These are yours to keep, DO NOT steal from your shit company. Let them keep their coal.
HR will typically block off their calendar in a strategic pattern the day of layoffs. Starting with a whole day block in case employees don't show up to their specific exit meeting. They are trying to ambush you after all. This gives HR the freedom to adjust ad hoc as needed. If you see a bunch of small 10-15 min meetings on HR's calendar, especially ones that overlap your strangely out of place sync with your boss, you're on the block and so archive and send your self your data, and prepare for any research that will help accomplish whatever you set out to do in that meeting.
You CAN negotiate severance. Use your prep time to figure out what those demands are.
If you're on the list, BE PROFESSIONAL. Do not warn others you figured it out, or notify they're being laid off too. It's too late to make a difference, unless you want to harm yourself and your professional leverage.
Also please remember, that failing start up you worked for means nothing to the industry, or you, in the long term, your colleagues are your future friends + allies in the field and key players in helping you fine a new role. Make sure to set them up for success, without disclosing too much before you part.
Please never let a job or company define who you are, your worth, or any future thought you have about yourself. CEOs running financially insolvent companies are doing poorly all by themselves, their lack of humanity and skill is a them problem.
Cheers.
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