The Premier League is back, and if last season taught us anything, it’s that the top spots are fiercely contested. Looking at the win rates from the 2023/24 campaign, we can make some fair predictions about which teams are best placed to win the most games this season.
🔥 Manchester City – The Benchmark
City closed last season with a 73.7% win rate, winning 28 out of 38 matches. Pep Guardiola’s men have set a new standard in English football, winning the league yet again. Their squad depth is unmatched—if Haaland isn’t firing, you’ve got Foden, De Bruyne, or Bernardo Silva stepping up. Realistically, they’re still the team to beat.
⚔️ Arsenal – The Real Challengers
Arsenal matched City’s 73.7% win rate, also picking up 28 wins. What made them stand out was their balance: 91 goals scored and only 29 conceded. Arteta has built a side that looks hungrier each season, and they came incredibly close to dethroning City. If there’s a team that can finally edge past Guardiola’s machine, it’s Arsenal.
🔴 Liverpool – Still in the Fight
Liverpool finished with a 63.2% win rate (24 wins). Klopp’s farewell season saw them fight until the final weeks. The question now is how the squad adapts to a new manager. They still have one of the most dangerous attacking trios in the league, and Anfield remains a fortress. A slight dip is possible, but writing them off would be a mistake.
🦁 Aston Villa – The Surprise Package
Unai Emery’s Villa shocked many last season, winning 20 games (52.6% win rate) and booking a Champions League spot. Villa Park became a nightmare for visiting teams, and with smart summer signings, they could keep pushing into the top four. They may not match City or Arsenal, but they’ll win plenty.
⚡ Tottenham – Unpredictable Spurs
Spurs also ended with 52.6% wins, and while they showed flashes of brilliance under Postecoglou, consistency was the issue. They score goals, but defensive lapses cost them points. If they can tighten up at the back, they’ll be right up there again.
🤔 Chelsea & Manchester United – A Lot to Prove
Both clubs had frustrating seasons, finishing with around 47.4% win rates (18 wins). Chelsea looked more promising toward the end of the season, especially with their young squad starting to click. United, on the other hand, struggled with form and injuries. Unless something changes fast, they may find themselves outside the top four race again.
If we’re talking pure probability based on last season’s form, Manchester City and Arsenal are the safest bets to win the most games again. Liverpool isn’t far behind, while Villa and Spurs could cement themselves as serious contenders. Chelsea and United? They’ve got the history and the resources, but they’ll need more than that to climb back to the top.
This season looks set to be another thriller—and if Arsenal can keep up the pace, we might finally see a title race that goes City’s way… or not.
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