Adaptive Trend Following Strategy with Dynamic Take-Profit Using Multiple Technical Indicators

#indicator #strategy #trading #trend

Overview
This strategy is a trend-following trading system that combines Moving Averages (EMA), momentum indicator (MACD), and overbought/oversold indicator (RSI) for signal generation and risk control. The strategy employs a dynamic take-profit mechanism, utilizing multiple technical indicators to assess market conditions and effectively capture trends. It also implements a fixed stop-loss for risk control, creating a balanced and robust trading system.

Strategy Principles
The core logic of the strategy is based on the following aspects:

Trend Identification: Uses 50-period and 200-period EMA system to determine market trend, with bullish trend confirmed when short-term EMA is above long-term EMA.
Entry Signals: Combines trend confirmation with MACD golden cross (12,26,9) and RSI(14) not in overbought territory (<70) as long entry conditions.
Dynamic Take-Profit: Monitors multiple market state indicators for exit timing:

Trend Reversal: Short-term EMA crosses below long-term EMA or price drops below short-term EMA
MACD Death Cross: MACD line crosses below signal line
RSI Overbought Pullback: RSI exceeds 70 and starts declining

Risk Control: Implements fixed stop-loss at 1.5% below entry price.

Strategy Advantages
1.Multi-dimensional Signal Confirmation: Combines trend, momentum, and overbought/oversold indicators to enhance signal reliability.

Flexible Take-Profit Mechanism: Dynamic take-profit avoids premature exits associated with fixed take-profit levels, better capturing trending markets.
Clear Risk Control: Fixed stop-loss percentage ensures controlled risk for each trade.
Clear Strategy Logic: Each indicator's role is well-defined, facilitating understanding and optimization.
High Adaptability: Core logic can be adapted to different trading instruments and timeframes through parameter adjustment.

Strategy Risks

Volatile Market Risk: Moving average system may generate excessive false signals in ranging markets.
Lag Risk: Technical indicators have inherent lag, potentially missing optimal entry/exit points in fast-moving markets.
Parameter Sensitivity: Multiple indicator parameters affect strategy performance, requiring thorough testing.
Market Environment Dependency: Strategy performs better in trending markets but may underperform in other market conditions.

Strategy Optimization Directions

Incorporate Volume-Price Indicators: Consider adding volume and money flow indicators to enhance signal reliability.
Dynamic Parameter Optimization: Dynamically adjust indicator parameters based on market volatility to improve adaptability.
Enhance Take-Profit Mechanism: Implement multi-level take-profit with different exit conditions at various price levels.
Add Market Environment Filters: Include volatility and trend strength indicators to assess strategy suitability.
Optimize Stop-Loss Mechanism: Consider implementing trailing stops or ATR-based dynamic stops for more flexible risk control.

Summary
The strategy combines multiple technical indicators to create a trading system that balances trend following with risk control. The dynamic take-profit mechanism demonstrates deep market understanding, while clear stop-loss settings ensure controlled risk. The strategy framework offers good extensibility, with potential for improved trading performance through further optimization and refinement.

Strategy source code

/*backtest
start: 2024-02-10 00:00:00
end: 2025-02-08 08:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=5
strategy("BTC 15-minute dynamic profit-taking strategy", overlay=true)

// === Parameter settings ===
// EMA parameters
ema_short_length = input.int(50, title="Short-term EMA length", minval=1)
ema_long_length = input.int(200, title="Long-term EMA length", minval=1)

// MACD parameters
macd_fast_length = input.int(12, title="MACD fast line length", minval=1)
macd_slow_length = input.int(26, title="MACD slow line length", minval=1)
macd_signal_length = input.int(9, title="MACD signal line length", minval=1)

// RSI parameters
rsi_length = input.int(14, title="RSI length", minval=1)
rsi_overbought = input.int(70, title="RSI overbought zone", minval=1, maxval=100)
rsi_oversold = input.int(30, title="RSI oversold zone", minval=1, maxval=100)

// Stop loss Parameters
stop_loss_pct = input.float(1.5, title="Stop loss percentage", minval=0.1)

// === Indicator calculation ===
// Moving average
ema_short = ta.ema(close, ema_short_length)
ema_long = ta.ema(close, ema_long_length)

// MACD
[macd_line, signal_line, _] = ta.macd(close, macd_fast_length, macd_slow_length, macd_signal_length)

// RSI
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsi_length)

// === Trend filter ===
bullish_trend = ema_short > ema_long  // Bullish trend: short-term moving average is above long-term moving average
bearish_trend = ema_short < ema_long  // Bearish trend: short-term moving average is lower than long-term moving average

// === Buying conditions ===
// 1. EMA shows bullish trend
// 2. MACD crossup (MACD line breaks through the signal line upward)
// 3. RSI is not in overbought territory
buy_signal = bullish_trend and ta.crossover(macd_line, signal_line) and rsi < rsi_overbought

// === Danger signals (dynamic take-profit conditions) ===
// 1. Trend reversal: the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, or the price falls below the short-term moving average
// 2. MACD crossdown: MACD line falls below the signal line
// 3. RSI: RSI is overbought and starting to fall
danger_signal = bearish_trend or close < ema_short or ta.crossunder(macd_line, signal_line) or (rsi > rsi_overbought and ta.falling(rsi, 2))  // Check if RSI has dropped in the last 2 periods

// === Strategy execution ===
if (buy_signal)
    strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long)

// Dynamic take-profit and stop-loss
if (strategy.position_size > 0)
    stop_price = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stop_loss_pct / 100)  // Fixed stop-loss
    strategy.exit("Exit", from_entry="Buy", stop=stop_price, when=danger_signal)

// === Draw a chart ===
// EMA plotting
plot(ema_short, color=color.blue, title="Short-term EMA")
plot(ema_long, color=color.orange, title="Long-term EMA")

// MACD plotting
plot(macd_line, color=color.green, title="MACD line")
plot(signal_line, color=color.red, title="Signal line")

// RSI overbought/oversold areas
hline(rsi_overbought, "RSI in overbought zone", color=color.red, linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
hline(rsi_oversold, "RSI oversold zone", color=color.green, linestyle=hline.style_dotted)

// Background color: Display trend
bgcolor(bullish_trend ? color.new(color.green, 90) : color.new(color.red, 90), title="Trend background")

Strategy Parameters