I think the current progress in machine learning, impressive though it is, has been excessively overhyped. We're still years and years away from a general AI.
Also, every progress in human history has been accompanied by a corresponding counter-movement, like at the moment, trolls feeding ML-chat-bots racist BS and lawmakers finding and filling new gaps in IP laws. The age of information is stunted by disinformation.
That being said, society always changes and adapts; changes come gradually and suddenly seem like they had happened in a short amount of time because everyone forgets the gradients.
Accessibility First DevRel. I focus on ensuring content created, events held and company assets are as accessible as possible, for as many people as possible.
But the scarier part of AI is that we are just not ready for specialised tools that can perform at such a high level, and those are in timescales measured in months away.
I think the current uses of AI are massively overhyped, but the dangers of it are also underplayed.
As you pointed out, we still haven't managed to adapt to the information age, and that was still primarily human driven. That improved our productivity per person a decent amount.
But the creation age, give it a couple of years and specialist tools will double, triple or 10x productivity. Long term this is great, but short term, the displacement is going to be huge.
There's a cycling community called "The Velominati", who publishes some "Rules", and I find that #10 describes the situation perfectly: "It never gets easier, you just go faster."
If developer's productivity increases tenfold, they will merely pump out features even faster. Yes, managers currently dream about replacing developers with AI, but that's a pipe dream even in a few decades of time.
Also, why do you think that developers who are actually losing their job even now would stop being developers? It just means that a lot of productivity has been unleashed from company politics. I'm pretty sure that new endeavors will start even now to utilize this productivity. I'm not too concerned even short term.
I'm more concerned about the legal and societal implications. This technology enables new kinds of criminal schemes, even worse than current crypto fraudsters would dare to dream of.
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I think the current progress in machine learning, impressive though it is, has been excessively overhyped. We're still years and years away from a general AI.
Also, every progress in human history has been accompanied by a corresponding counter-movement, like at the moment, trolls feeding ML-chat-bots racist BS and lawmakers finding and filling new gaps in IP laws. The age of information is stunted by disinformation.
That being said, society always changes and adapts; changes come gradually and suddenly seem like they had happened in a short amount of time because everyone forgets the gradients.
AGI - oh yes years, decades away.
But the scarier part of AI is that we are just not ready for specialised tools that can perform at such a high level, and those are in timescales measured in months away.
I think the current uses of AI are massively overhyped, but the dangers of it are also underplayed.
As you pointed out, we still haven't managed to adapt to the information age, and that was still primarily human driven. That improved our productivity per person a decent amount.
But the creation age, give it a couple of years and specialist tools will double, triple or 10x productivity. Long term this is great, but short term, the displacement is going to be huge.
There's a cycling community called "The Velominati", who publishes some "Rules", and I find that #10 describes the situation perfectly: "It never gets easier, you just go faster."
If developer's productivity increases tenfold, they will merely pump out features even faster. Yes, managers currently dream about replacing developers with AI, but that's a pipe dream even in a few decades of time.
Also, why do you think that developers who are actually losing their job even now would stop being developers? It just means that a lot of productivity has been unleashed from company politics. I'm pretty sure that new endeavors will start even now to utilize this productivity. I'm not too concerned even short term.
I'm more concerned about the legal and societal implications. This technology enables new kinds of criminal schemes, even worse than current crypto fraudsters would dare to dream of.