Introduction: Not Every Place Is Rising the Same Way — But Almost Everywhere Is Rising
In 2025, land prices across Tokyo's 23 wards rose across the board.
Not just a few districts — all 23 wards. Residential land averaged +7.9%, commercial land +11.8% (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Land Price Report, ward area overall). Many wards exceeded these averages significantly.
But "across the board" doesn't mean "evenly distributed."
The central 5 wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya) saw residential land rise 12.9%, while peripheral wards (Katsushika, Edogawa, Nerima) only saw around 5% growth. That's a 2x+ gap. Capital is accelerating its concentration toward the center, while simultaneously spreading outward at an increasing pace.
This bifurcation means the difference between "buying where it's already peaked" and "buying where it hasn't arrived yet" could be enormous 10 years from now.
Part 1: The 2025 Land Price Overview — The Data
Overall Ward Area Trends
| Use | 2024 Increase | 2025 Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial (all wards) | +9.7% | +13.2% |
| Residential (all wards) | +6.7% | +8.3% |
| Commercial (central 5 wards) | +10.7% | +14.8% |
| Residential (central 5 wards) | +9.6% | +12.9% |
Growth is accelerating, not decelerating. This is the most important signal from the 2025 land price report.
By Direction
| Area | Residential | Commercial |
|---|---|---|
| Ward area central | +11.7% | +13.0% |
| Ward area southwest | +7.5% | +10.9% |
| Ward area northeast | +6.7% | +10.1% |
| Tama area | +3.4% | +5.3% |
Part 2: Ward Rankings — Where Rose the Most?
Residential Land Top 5
| Rank | Ward | Increase |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chuo | +13.9% |
| 2 | Minato | +12.7% |
| 3 | Meguro | +12.5% |
| 4 | Shinagawa | +11.9% |
| 5 | Bunkyo | +11.8% |
| Ward average | — | +7.9% |
Commercial Land Top 5
| Rank | Ward | Increase |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nakano | +16.3% |
| 2 | Suginami | +15.1% |
| 3 | Taito | +14.8% |
| 4 | Shinjuku | +13.7% |
| 5 | Chiyoda | +13.3% |
| Ward average | — | +11.8% |
Notable: East and North Tokyo Commercial Land (Base Land Price)
- Kita-ku: +14.4%
- Koto-ku: +14.2%
- Arakawa-ku: +13.9%
These three wards' commercial land increases rival or exceed some central wards. But their absolute land prices remain far below the center, meaning yields are still achievable and further upside potential exists.
Part 3: The "Undervalued Growth" Areas — Where the Real Opportunities Are
The "spillover effect" of central Tokyo's land price surge spreading to surrounding wards became clearly visible in 2025.
Notable Residential Land Specific Locations (Base Land Price)
| Rank | Area | Increase | Highlight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | Adachi-ku, Ayase | +16.6% | Redevelopment underway |
| 4th | Kita-ku, Akabane | +16.1% | Close to center, still affordable |
These are near-Minato/Meguro-level increases. But with absolute land prices far below central wards, yields of 5–6% are still achievable — making these prime candidates as "the next wave" areas.
Peripheral Wards (Caution Required)
| Ward | Residential Increase |
|---|---|
| Katsushika | +5.0% |
| Edogawa | +5.1% |
| Nerima | +5.4% |
Peripherals are rising, but at less than half the rate of central areas. Combined with long-term population decline trends, the risk/return profile is less attractive than the east/north Tokyo wards.
Part 4: The Rental Market — Rising at Twice Last Year's Pace
Land price increases aren't just paper wealth — there's real economic backing.
Aimax (a Tokyo 23 wards-focused investment company) January–October 2025 results:
- 96.5% (220 of 228) of vacated properties saw rent increases
- Average rent increase: +¥8,700/month (doubled from +¥4,350 in 2024)
- Average vacancy days: just 14 days (including renovation period)
4 Drivers of Rent Increases
- Strong single-person demand from young workers relocating: Continued expansion of transient demand
- Rising disposable income: Economic improvement increasing capacity to pay rent
- Soaring new condominium prices: Those who want to buy but can't are flooding the rental market
- Virtuous cycle: Rents rise → income capitalization method pushes property values up → reinvestment appetite increases
Part 5: 2026 Redevelopment Areas Worth Getting Into Early
Oimachi Area (Shinagawa-ku) ★ Recommended
"Oimachi Tracks (OIMACHI TRACKS)" large-scale redevelopment is proceeding in 2026.
- Current prices are still at a reasonable level (upside not yet fully priced in)
- Excellent access toward Shinagawa, Osaki, and Meguro
- A classic "buy before the development is complete" opportunity
Takanawa Gateway Area (Minato-ku)
- "Takanawa Gateway City" opened in March 2025
- Surrounding properties have already risen significantly — the early entry window is largely closed
Nakano-ku
- Large-scale redevelopment including Nakano Sun Plaza replacement continues
- Proven by data: #1 commercial land increase (+16.3%)
- Residential land still has room for growth
Part 6: New Condominium Market — The Comparative Advantage of Used Properties Is Growing
- 2025 first half: Average price per unit ¥130.64 million (¥2.015 million per ㎡)
- Supply volume: Sharply decreased since 2024
- Rising construction costs + labor costs → developers focusing on premium central locations only
Result: The relative attractiveness of used properties is increasing.
Those priced out of new builds are flowing into the used market, pushing both used property prices and rents upward. For investors, the "purchase price ÷ rental income" ratio is now more favorable for used properties than new builds.
Part 7: Investment Direction Summary
Direction A: "Undervalued Growth" Areas (Value-Oriented)
- Kita-ku (Akabane/Oji): Multiple train lines close to center, low absolute land prices, 5–6% yields achievable, 15%+ increase locations exist
- Arakawa-ku (Minami-Senju/Mikawashima): Commercial land +13.9%, adjacent to redevelopment areas, prices still moderate
- Adachi-ku (Ayase/Kita-Senju): Kita-Senju already popular, Ayase is the next spillover candidate
Direction B: Redevelopment Pre-emption (Catch It Before the Rise)
- Shinagawa-ku (Oimachi): 2026 redevelopment underway, early stage of price appreciation
- Nakano-ku: Long-term redevelopment theme, commercial already priced in but residential has room
Direction C: Asset Value Priority (Defensive)
- Minato, Meguro, Shinagawa: Expensive but high liquidity and clear exit strategies
Practical Property Selection Points
- "Separate vanity + newer build" is the strongest combination: Maximum rent upside, minimum vacancy periods
- East/North Tokyo's "next move": Arakawa-ku and Kita-ku still have 5% yield properties — areas you won't regret in 10 years
- Be careful about peripherals (Katsushika, Edogawa, Nerima): Low appreciation rates plus population decline risk make the economics less attractive
- New builds now start at ¥100M+: The comparative advantage of used property investment is growing
Conclusion: Everything Is Rising, But Opportunities Are Not Equal
Tokyo's 23 ward land prices rose across the board in 2025, and this trend will continue into 2026.
But "across the board" doesn't mean "profitable no matter where you buy."
Central ward properties are approaching sub-3% yield territory. If interest rates continue rising, the yield gap between surface yield and borrowing costs will narrow further, raising the risk of holding.
The real opportunity is in east and north Tokyo's "undervalued growth" areas — where appreciation has accelerated but absolute land prices haven't caught up to the center yet, and yields above 5% can still be found.
The Oimachi redevelopment play and yield investing in Kita-ku and Arakawa-ku — these are the two directions worth serious research in 2026.
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