At the beginning of every year, I revisit a familiar question: which major private companies are most likely to enter public markets next?
This isn’t about pinning down exact listing dates. It’s about quantifying uncertainty, reading market expectations, and understanding how macro conditions and sector dynamics influence IPO timing. As early 2026 unfolds, attention naturally concentrates on prominent private companies such as Discord, Databricks, SpaceX, and OpenAI.
To structure this analysis, I relied on Powerdrill Bloom to combine prediction-market signals from Polymarket with macro indicators, sector-level context, and probabilistic forecasting. The platform aggregates market pricing, trading activity, and clustering patterns, making it easier to translate fragmented data into interpretable signals.
1. Company-Level IPO Expectations
Polymarket hosts a composite market titled “IPOs before 2027?”, with individual contracts tied to companies including Discord, Cerebras, Stripe, and Anthropic. Prices—quoted in cents—represent the implied probability that a given company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026.
IPO Probability Before 2027 for Selected Companies
These figures should not be read as certainties, but rather as a real-time reflection of collective market belief and trader conviction.
1.1 High-Confidence Group (≥70%)
Discord
- Polymarket probability: ~96%
- Analyst range: 90–95%
Discord fits the archetype of a mature consumer SaaS IPO: strong engagement, recurring subscription revenue (Nitro), and broad public-market appeal. A reopening IPO window in 2025–2026 further improves its odds.
Key risks: Management may choose to delay due to secondary liquidity options or strategic M&A, while content moderation issues could affect valuation discussions.
Once Upon a Farm (CPG)
- Polymarket probability: ~84%
- Analyst range: 75–85%
A focused consumer brand benefiting from improving risk appetite post-2024, albeit with a relatively modest market capitalization.
Key risks: Timing remains sensitive to consumer IPO multiples and sponsor exit considerations.
Cerebras (AI Infrastructure)
- Polymarket probability: ~81%
- Analyst range: 80–90%
Capital-intensive AI infrastructure firms are natural public-market candidates, particularly as AI-driven demand continues.
Key risks: Semiconductor cycles and geopolitical exposure could delay execution.
Deel (Global Payroll & Fintech)
- Polymarket probability: ~75%
- Analyst range: 70–80%
Global payroll compliance is a structurally expanding market, with public comparables already established.
Key risks: Management may favor private funding or a strategic transaction instead of an IPO.
SpaceX
- Polymarket probability: ~73%
- Analyst range: 65–75%
Large-scale capital requirements make public markets attractive for mega-cap companies.
Key risks: Founder financing preferences, potential Starlink separation, and regulatory complexity could push timing beyond 2026.
1.2 Medium-High Probability Group (50–70%)
Databricks
- Polymarket probability: ~63%
- Analyst range: 60–70%
AI and data infrastructure platforms remain central to the IPO pipeline. Elevated trading volume suggests active participation from informed traders.
Key risks: Continued access to private capital allows flexibility on valuation and timing.
Glean (Enterprise AI Search)
- Polymarket probability: ~43%
- Analyst range: 40–55%
Enterprise AI adoption is accelerating, but smaller scale and acquisition optionality weigh on near-term IPO likelihood.
1.3 Frontier AI & Large-Cap Tech (25–45%)
Anthropic
- Polymarket probability: ~40%
- Analyst range: 45–55%
Well-funded AI labs may eventually turn to public markets once revenue visibility improves.
Key risks: Deep-pocketed private investors and regulatory uncertainty could delay listings.
OpenAI
- Polymarket probability: ~27%
- Analyst range: 30–45%
Preparatory steps exist, but governance structure, valuation sensitivity, and AI policy debates complicate timelines.
Stripe
- Polymarket probability: ~30%
- Analyst range: 35–50%
A recurring IPO candidate whose repeated private rounds keep expectations restrained.
Anduril (Defense Technology)
- Polymarket probability: ~28%
- Analyst range: 35–45%
Defense tech benefits from long-term demand but faces heightened regulatory and political scrutiny.
1.4 Low-Probability Group (<25%)
Companies such as Mistral AI, xAI, Ramp, Remote, Anysphere, Ripple Labs, and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac currently sit in this bracket due to governance, regulatory, or scale-related constraints.
2. Trading Volume as a Measure of Conviction
Beyond headline probabilities, Polymarket trading volume offers insight into market attention:
- High volume + high probability: Near-consensus IPO candidates (e.g., Discord, Cerebras, SpaceX)
- High volume + low probability: Perennial “next year” names (e.g., Stripe, Anduril)
- Moderate volume + moderate probability: Optional upside scenarios (e.g., Databricks, Glean)
Using Powerdrill Bloom, volumes and probabilities were mapped together, revealing sector-level clusters and risk-reward profiles that are less visible when examining probabilities in isolation.
3. Macro Backdrop: The 2026 IPO Environment
Historical issuance data points to a gradual recovery:
- 2024: ~150 U.S. IPOs
- 2025: ~202 IPOs (+35%)
- 2026 forecast: 200–230 IPOs
Even the lower end of this range aligns with 2025 levels, while the upper bound would mark the strongest year since the 2020–2021 surge.
This environment supports higher probabilities for companies previously constrained by a closed IPO window—such as mid-cap SaaS, fintech, and AI infrastructure—while mega-IPOs and frontier AI labs remain more sensitive to sentiment and valuation conditions.
4. Takeaways for Equity and Thematic Analysts
For those tracking pre-IPO exposure:
- High-conviction names: Discord, Cerebras, Deel, SpaceX, Once Upon a Farm
- Core AI infrastructure: Databricks and Cerebras
- Frontier AI optionality: Anthropic, OpenAI, Mistral, xAI
- Persistent but delayed candidates: Stripe, Anduril, Ripple Labs
Macro conditions appear supportive, with stabilizing rates shifting IPO timing toward company-specific governance and strategic choices.
5. Risks and Monitoring Points
- Rates and volatility: Sharp moves can quickly reduce IPO appetite
- AI regulation and sentiment: Policy shifts or sector-wide repricing may delay AI-focused listings
- Company decisions: Private funding rounds, governance changes, or M&A can override market signals
- Sector regulation: Defense, financial services, and crypto-linked firms face distinct approval risks
Conclusion
When prediction-market probabilities, trading activity, macro IPO trends, and sector fundamentals are viewed together, the picture becomes clearer: 2026–2027 is likely to be an active IPO period, but outcomes will vary widely by company.
Discord, Cerebras, Once Upon a Farm, Deel, SpaceX, and Databricks stand out as the most credible near-term candidates. Frontier AI labs and select fintech or defense companies offer upside but with far greater timing uncertainty.
Platforms like Powerdrill Bloom help synthesize these layers—turning market signals and crowd expectations into structured, decision-ready insights.
Disclosure
This article reflects independent analysis based on publicly available data and prediction-market information. References to Powerdrill Bloom are based on its use as an analytical tool, not as investment advice or a solicitation. All probabilities discussed are indicative and subject to change.
Top comments (0)