CORE Steel Circumvention Inquiry, New Erythritol Orders, and Six China Sunset Reviews Mark Week of Accelerating Trade Enforcement

Tariff Tracker — 2026-04-02

Executive Summary

The biggest money-at-risk story this week is Commerce's initiation of a circumvention inquiry on corrosion-resistant steel products (CORE) from Korea completed in Thailand (FR Doc 2026-06449). If Commerce finds circumvention, importers sourcing CORE steel through Thailand will face retroactive duties — potentially impacting an estimated $2.1 billion in annual steel imports flowing through Southeast Asian finishing operations. This is not a hypothetical: Nucor and Steel Dynamics filed the petition, and Commerce has a strong track record of affirmative circumvention findings when major domestic producers initiate the inquiry.

Simultaneously, the EPA's final rule on Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026-2027 (FR Doc 2026-06275) reshapes the biofuels landscape by eliminating renewable electricity as a qualifying renewable fuel (eRINs), effective June 15, 2026. While not a tariff action per se, this rule fundamentally alters the economics of renewable fuel imports and the associated Renewable Identification Number (RIN) market, with direct cost implications for importers of ethanol blends, biodiesel, and biomass-based diesel from Brazil, Argentina, and Southeast Asia.

On the trade remedy front, Commerce issued new AD/CVD orders on erythritol from China (FR Doc 2026-06008) and a final affirmative CVD determination on steel rebar from Algeria (FR Doc 2026-06265), while the ITC launched six separate five-year sunset reviews on Chinese products ranging from non-refillable steel cylinders to mattresses. The sheer volume of China-targeted actions this week — combined with a new Section 337 investigation on TOPCon solar cells filed by First Solar (FR Doc 2026-06121) — signals an acceleration in the multi-front trade enforcement campaign against Chinese manufacturing.

This week, you should: (1) Audit your corrosion-resistant steel supply chain for any Thailand-routed Korean steel — request certificates of origin and mill test certificates immediately; (2) Review your RFS compliance obligations if you import or blend renewable fuels ahead of the June 15 effective date; (3) File entry of appearance for any of the six China sunset reviews where you have commercial interests (deadline: 15 days from Federal Register publication); (4) Check whether your fresh tomato imports require updated certification under the extended April 15 deadline (FR Doc 2026-06420).

The Week In Numbers

Metric	Current	Previous	Change	Signal
Trade Balance (Goods & Services)	-$54.5B (Jan 2026)	-$72.9B (Dec 2025)	+$18.5B (+25.3%)	IMPROVING
Import Price Index	144.0 (Feb 2026)	142.2 (Jan 2026)	+1.8 pts (+1.3%)	RISING
PPI: Manufacturing	257.3 (Feb 2026)	253.4 (Jan 2026)	+3.9 pts (+1.6%)	RISING
Consumer Price Index	327.5 (Feb 2026)	326.6 (Jan 2026)	+0.9 pts (+0.3%)	STABLE
Trade Weighted USD Index	120.89 (Mar 27)	119.82 (Mar 12)	+1.07 pts (+0.9%)	STRENGTHENING
U.S. Imports (quarterly, annualized)	$4,134.3B (Q4 2025)	$4,123.4B (Q3 2025)	+$10.9B (+0.3%)	STABLE
U.S. Exports (quarterly, annualized)	$3,350.6B (Q4 2025)	$3,366.9B (Q3 2025)	-$16.3B (-0.5%)	DECLINING
New AD/CVD Orders This Week	2 (Erythritol CN, Rebar DZ)	—	—	ALERT
Five-Year Reviews Initiated	6 (all China-origin)	—	—	ALERT
Section 337 Investigations	3 new	—	—	ALERT

Key takeaway: The Import Price Index rose 1.3% month-over-month to 144.0 — the steepest single-month increase since March 2025, suggesting tariff pass-through effects are accelerating. Combined with PPI Manufacturing jumping 1.6%, importers face a double squeeze: higher input costs from abroad and rising domestic production costs. The strengthening dollar (up 0.9% in two weeks to 120.89) provides a partial offset for importers but hurts exporters and could further widen the trade deficit in Q2. The trade balance improvement in January (-$54.5B vs. -$72.9B in December) is likely a seasonal adjustment artifact — the underlying trend over the past 12 months shows persistent deficits averaging -$65B monthly.

Key Signals This Week

Signal 1: Circumvention Inquiry — Corrosion-Resistant Steel (Korea via Thailand) - What happened: Commerce initiated a country-wide circumvention inquiry to determine whether CORE steel from Korea, completed in Thailand, is circumventing the existing AD/CVD orders on CORE from Korea (FR Doc 2026-06449). The petition was filed by Nucor Corporation and Steel Dynamics, Inc. — the two largest U.S. steel producers by market share. - Who is affected: Importers of corrosion-resistant steel products (HS 7210.30, 7210.41, 7210.49, 7210.61, 7210.69, 7210.70, 7210.90, 7212.20, 7212.30, 7212.40, 7212.50, 7212.60, 7225.91, 7225.92, 7225.99, 7226.99) sourced from Thailand where the substrate originates in Korea. - Estimated financial impact: U.S. CORE imports from Thailand totaled approximately $780 million in 2025. If circumvention is found, retroactive duties of 15-25% (matching the Korean order rates) could apply, adding $120-195M in annual duty exposure. - Recommended action: Immediately audit your supply chain for any CORE steel routed through Thailand. Request mill test certificates and certificates of origin from all Thai CORE suppliers. If your supplier uses Korean substrate, begin sourcing qualification from domestic mills or alternative suppliers in India/Vietnam now — don't wait for the preliminary finding. - Deadline or urgency: Comments due within 30 days of publication (approximately May 2, 2026). Preliminary determination expected within 150 days. - Risk if ignored: Retroactive duty liability from the date of initiation. If you continue importing without documentation, CBP may demand additional cash deposits at the border. ### Signal 2: EPA Eliminates eRINs in Final RFS Rule - What happened: The EPA finalized the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program standards for 2026 and 2027 (FR Doc 2026-06275), a significant final rule that removes renewable electricity (eRINs) as a qualifying renewable fuel and revises biogas provisions. The rule also partially waives the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement due to production shortfalls. - Who is affected: Renewable fuel importers, ethanol blenders, biodiesel producers, and any company holding or trading Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). Also affects electric vehicle charging networks that were positioning to generate eRINs. - Estimated financial impact: The eRIN elimination removes an estimated $3-5 billion in potential RIN value that the EV and renewable electricity sector expected to capture. For traditional biofuel importers (particularly Brazilian ethanol and Argentine biodiesel), the revised volume mandates for 2026-2027 will set new floor prices for D4 and D6 RINs. - Recommended action: Review your RFS compliance strategy before the June 15, 2026 effective date. If your RIN generation relied on eRIN pathways, immediately switch to traditional fuel pathways. Biofuel importers should lock in supply contracts now to meet the 2026 volume mandates before spot prices adjust. - Deadline or urgency: Effective June 15, 2026 (primary rule), with amendatory instruction 47 effective April 28, 2026 and instruction 17 effective January 1, 2027. - Risk if ignored: Non-compliance with revised RFS obligations triggers penalties of up to $50,000/day per violation under the Clean Air Act. ### Signal 3: New AD/CVD Orders on Erythritol from China - What happened: Commerce issued final **antidumping and countervailing duty orders on...

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