The One-Page Decision System I Use for Everything

A simple template that's saved me from bad hires, bad investments, and bad commitments.

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Two years ago, I made three terrible decisions in a row. Hired the wrong person. Invested in the wrong company. Committed to a project that drained six months of my life.

Looking back, the problem wasn't information. I had plenty. The problem was process. I was making high-stakes decisions the same way I chose what to eat for lunch — going with my gut.

So I built a system. It fits on one page. And it's been the single most valuable tool in my decision-making toolkit.

The Template

For any significant decision, I fill out this single page before committing:

DECISION: [State it as a clear question]

DEADLINE: [When I must decide by]

OPTIONS: [List at least 3, including "do nothing"]

CRITERIA: [What matters most — ranked 1-5]

FOR THE LEADING OPTION:

• Best case scenario?
• Worst case scenario?
• Most likely scenario?

INVERSION: How would I guarantee this decision fails?

REVERSIBILITY: Can I undo this? How easily? At what cost?

PRE-MORTEM: It's one year from now and this failed. What went wrong?

GUT CHECK: What does my intuition say, and why might it be wrong?

DECISION: [Final choice + one sentence of reasoning]

Why It Works

It forces clarity. You'd be amazed how many people can't state what they're actually deciding. "Should I change careers?" is vague. "Should I leave my marketing role at Company X to join Startup Y as head of growth by March 1?" is a real decision.

It surfaces hidden criteria. Listing and ranking your criteria reveals what you actually value. Sometimes you discover that the thing you think you care about most (salary) matters less than something you hadn't articulated (autonomy).

It breaks the optimism bubble. The inversion and pre-mortem sections are there specifically because humans are wired to be optimistic about their own plans. These sections force you to imagine failure, which surfaces risks your enthusiasm has buried.

It creates accountability. Written decisions can be reviewed later. You can learn from them. Gut feelings evaporate — written reasoning persists.

Real Example

Here's a simplified version from when I was evaluating a job change last year:

DECISION: Should I leave Current Co for Startup Z by Feb 15?

CRITERIA: 1) Learning growth, 2) Financial stability, 3) Team quality, 4) Autonomy, 5) Mission alignment

INVERSION: How to guarantee failure — join without meeting the team, don't negotiate equity, ignore cash runway, assume current traction continues, skip reference checks on founder.

PRE-MORTEM: The startup ran out of money in 8 months. The founder's "vision" was more talk than execution. I gave up stable income for equity that became worthless.

That pre-mortem prompted me to dig deeper into the startup's financials. I discovered their runway was shorter than presented. I negotiated different terms as a result.

The decision system didn't make the decision for me. It made me think before deciding.

Building Your Toolkit

This template draws from several established frameworks — inversion (Munger), pre-mortem (Klein), reversibility (Bezos), and criteria-based evaluation (multi-attribute utility theory).

I refined it by studying how great decision-makers approach specific scenarios. KeepRule was particularly helpful — it maps these principles to practical situations, so instead of learning frameworks in the abstract, you see them applied to decisions like the ones you actually face.

When NOT to Use It

Not every decision deserves a one-page analysis. Rules of thumb:

• Under $100 or 1 hour of time? Just decide.
• Easily reversible? Decide fast, learn from the outcome.
• High stakes, irreversible, or affects others significantly? Use the system.

The goal isn't to over-analyze. It's to match the rigor of your process to the significance of the decision.

Start Today

Print the template. Put it somewhere visible. The next time a significant decision lands in your lap — a job offer, an investment opportunity, a major purchase, a commitment that affects your next 6-12 months — fill it out before you decide.

You'll make the same decision about 60% of the time. But the other 40% — the ones the system catches — are the ones that would have cost you.

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For more structured decision-making frameworks and scenarios, visit KeepRule.