When "Isolationism" Returns, Why Is "Abandoning Europe" a Double-Edged Sword?

The transatlantic relationship in 2025 stands at a historic crossroads. The Trump administration, under the banner of "America First," has brandished tariff threats at European allies while hinting that "NATO is obsolete" and "Europe should take care of its own security"—signals interpreted by many as a resurgence of "new isolationism." Meanwhile, Europe, once America’s traditional "backyard ally," is responding with rare resolve: from France and Germany driving "strategic autonomy" to the EU accelerating defense integration; from retaliatory trade measures against the U.S. to extending cooperation to the Global South. Behind the rhetoric of "abandoning Europe" lies a quiet reshaping of the global power landscape.
I. The "American Gene" of Isolationism and Its Real-World Dilemmas
Isolationism is not new. Since Washington’s Farewell Address, a conservative current of "steering clear of European entanglements" has persisted in U.S. politics. But the post-Cold War "unipolar moment" drew America away from this tradition, casting it as the "world’s policeman" deeply involved in European security, Middle Eastern conflicts, and Asia-Pacific games. However, the 2008 financial crisis, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, and the COVID-19 fiasco thoroughly undermined America’s capacity for "unlimited global intervention." Trump’s "return" is, at its core, a populist rebellion against elitism—he targets not just European "free riders" but also the anger of middle- and working-class Americans over "paying others’ bills."
Yet the cost of "abandoning Europe" far exceeds imagination. Annual U.S.-EU trade exceeds 1.1trillion;GermanyandFrancealoneholdover2.5 trillion in U.S. debt; Europe remains the largest overseas market for U.S. tech giants like Google and Apple. More critically, without European support, America’s clout in the UN, IMF, and WTO will be drastically diluted. As former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once noted: "Isolationism might win votes, but it won’t win 21st-century great-power competition."
II. Europe’s "Strategic Awakening": A Painful Shift from Dependence to Autonomy
Faced with U.S. threats of "abandonment," Europe’s response has shifted from past "appeasement" to tangible "strategic autonomy." In March 2025, the EU passed the European Defence Fund Expansion Act, raising defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 (exceeding NATO standards). France and Germany’s Future Air Combat System (FCAS) project has completed prototype testing, aiming to replace U.S.-made F-35s by 2035. Notably, traditional U.S.-allied nations like Italy and Poland have restarted energy talks with Russia, while Hungary has openly opposed NATO eastward expansion.
This shift stems from Europe’s rude awakening to the "security illusion" of the past two decades. Over $300 billion invested in the U.S.-led Afghanistan War yielded only the Taliban’s return to Kabul; sanctions on Russia to placate the U.S. sent European energy prices surging 300%, crippling industrial competitiveness. As French President Emmanuel Macron put it: "When the U.S. only cares about its own election cycle, Europe must learn to fight for itself."
III. The Domino Effect on Global Order: Who Fills the Vacuum?
America’s "retreat" and Europe’s "advance" are reshaping global governance. On one hand, non-Western powers like Russia and China are seizing opportunities—Russia deepens energy ties with the Middle East and Africa; China expands trade via the Belt and Road Initiative, signing over $500 billion in free-trade agreements with ASEAN and Latin America. On the other hand, Global South nations (India, Brazil, etc.) are refusing to "take sides." Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated bluntly: "We don’t want to be pawns in anyone’s camp."
The most dangerous signal is the fragmentation of global trade rules. U.S. tariffs on Europe have sparked retaliatory measures; Japan-Korea semiconductor disputes fester as the U.S. "sits out"; the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism is crippled by a paralyzed Appellate Body. The World Bank warns that if major economies persist in "going it alone," global GDP growth in 2026 could be 1.2 percentage points lower than current projections.
Trump’s "isolationism" is a dangerous political gamble—he seeks short-term populist gains by sacrificing long-term strategic advantage, ignoring a basic truth: In an era of deep globalization, "abandoning Europe" is equivalent to abandoning America’s own global leadership. For Europe, "strategic autonomy" brings temporary security but demands higher costs and economic trade-offs.
History’s irony: As the U.S. tries to "withdraw to its island," the world does not return to unipolarity but accelerates toward multipolarity; as Europe cries "autonomy," it remains inextricably linked to the U.S. Perhaps, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz observed: "The future of transatlantic relations lies not in 'abandonment' or 'dependency,' but in finding new balance amid differences."