50 years ago, IBM accessed the longtime market potential of their personal computers to be below 1 million pieces. 25 years ago reliable optical character recognition started to seem possible to be implemented in a pc. Today we know, that soon it will be possible to sit into a driverless car and say "take me to the opera" and it does.
We always tend to predict the future in terms of the past. Most problems we as programmers solve we would not have without computers. We cant say now what the future looks like in terms of programming, but it will be here sooner than we think now and as others said it will probably involve a lot less programmers than we have now.
And of course creative people will always find something to do, perhaps something to improve, but we will do it along AIs that do things we cannot imagine today.
I am not saying that AI is not coming. I believe in a future with true sentience level artifical intelligence. My position in the article is specifically about how the near future applies to programming.
If you consider what I say about the job in this article, and in my other article, you'll see the inability to automate programming relates to how I define what a programmer does.
The level of AI needed to automated the job away is the same as general human level intelligence. At this point the question of whether it replaces programmers is irrelevant, since it replaces all of human jobs
In the near term I truly help pseudo-AI (what we have today) will help automate many parts of programming. Perhaps there are some kinds of coding jobs that might be minized by this. Perhaps it enables good programmers to get more done. This is good.
It always depends on what the near future is. I tried to make the point, that it doesn't need human intelligence to replace a big part of the programmers working now.
If we think about it in terms of the past, we have to wait for true sentience level AI that does the exact job we do now. But with shifting paradigms like in the last few years, we could find ourselves having skills that are no longer needed. Not in a year, but in ten?
The first iPhone came ten years ago and today people dont know how to use maps anymore. Or timetables. And there's an app for everything, and if there isn't, you use Siri. (not yet, but soon ;). PCs are in decline and most important: outside of work, no one uses laptops anymore.
My point is: if we look at the future with todays knowledge, we can probably predict the next five years. If thats your horizon I think you are very right with your assessment.
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50 years ago, IBM accessed the longtime market potential of their personal computers to be below 1 million pieces. 25 years ago reliable optical character recognition started to seem possible to be implemented in a pc. Today we know, that soon it will be possible to sit into a driverless car and say "take me to the opera" and it does.
We always tend to predict the future in terms of the past. Most problems we as programmers solve we would not have without computers. We cant say now what the future looks like in terms of programming, but it will be here sooner than we think now and as others said it will probably involve a lot less programmers than we have now.
And of course creative people will always find something to do, perhaps something to improve, but we will do it along AIs that do things we cannot imagine today.
I am not saying that AI is not coming. I believe in a future with true sentience level artifical intelligence. My position in the article is specifically about how the near future applies to programming.
If you consider what I say about the job in this article, and in my other article, you'll see the inability to automate programming relates to how I define what a programmer does.
The level of AI needed to automated the job away is the same as general human level intelligence. At this point the question of whether it replaces programmers is irrelevant, since it replaces all of human jobs
In the near term I truly help pseudo-AI (what we have today) will help automate many parts of programming. Perhaps there are some kinds of coding jobs that might be minized by this. Perhaps it enables good programmers to get more done. This is good.
It always depends on what the near future is. I tried to make the point, that it doesn't need human intelligence to replace a big part of the programmers working now.
If we think about it in terms of the past, we have to wait for true sentience level AI that does the exact job we do now. But with shifting paradigms like in the last few years, we could find ourselves having skills that are no longer needed. Not in a year, but in ten?
The first iPhone came ten years ago and today people dont know how to use maps anymore. Or timetables. And there's an app for everything, and if there isn't, you use Siri. (not yet, but soon ;). PCs are in decline and most important: outside of work, no one uses laptops anymore.
My point is: if we look at the future with todays knowledge, we can probably predict the next five years. If thats your horizon I think you are very right with your assessment.