Great article. But probability so much more interesting. I really wish it would be taught better, somehow (I’m not sure how exactly though), for folks to understand it better.
For instance: if the weather lady/dude says that there’s an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, most of us assume there is pretty much a ”CERTAINTY” (plz forgive the “YELLING”) of rain! Then, I guess we get mad for dressing up in boots and taking umbrellas, yet in the end, often, the rain doesn’t appear.
This is why I love Nate Silver’s [ fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/n... ] analyses of US politics and other topics! For instance, in the 2016 election, his probabilistic averages of national polls allowed a wider prediction/chance for Trump to win, versus most polls’ assumption of certainty for H. Clinton! 😐🤷♂️
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Great article. But probability so much more interesting. I really wish it would be taught better, somehow (I’m not sure how exactly though), for folks to understand it better.
For instance: if the weather lady/dude says that there’s an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, most of us assume there is pretty much a ”CERTAINTY” (plz forgive the “YELLING”) of rain! Then, I guess we get mad for dressing up in boots and taking umbrellas, yet in the end, often, the rain doesn’t appear.
This is why I love Nate Silver’s [ fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/n... ] analyses of US politics and other topics! For instance, in the 2016 election, his probabilistic averages of national polls allowed a wider prediction/chance for Trump to win, versus most polls’ assumption of certainty for H. Clinton! 😐🤷♂️