DEV Community

Discussion on: Learning Probability through a Story.

Collapse
 
seif_sekalala_81e09fe6b9e profile image
Seif Sekalala

Great article. But probability so much more interesting. I really wish it would be taught better, somehow (I’m not sure how exactly though), for folks to understand it better.

For instance: if the weather lady/dude says that there’s an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, most of us assume there is pretty much a ”CERTAINTY” (plz forgive the “YELLING”) of rain! Then, I guess we get mad for dressing up in boots and taking umbrellas, yet in the end, often, the rain doesn’t appear.

This is why I love Nate Silver’s [ fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/n... ] analyses of US politics and other topics! For instance, in the 2016 election, his probabilistic averages of national polls allowed a wider prediction/chance for Trump to win, versus most polls’ assumption of certainty for H. Clinton! 😐🤷‍♂️