In crypto trading, the loudest voices usually belong to those predicting the next rally. But experienced traders often focus on something less exciting — patience, cycles, and the psychology that quietly moves markets long before headlines catch up. In the fourth episode of Crypto Minds, Unfiltered, we speak with EXCAVO — the All-Time Top-1 trader and “Wizard” on TradingView — about why Bitcoin has already become a strategic institutional asset, why “no trade” can sometimes be the best position, and how market euphoria itself often becomes the exit signal for smart money. From exchange tokens and real-world asset tokenization to the brutal psychological mistakes that push traders out of the market, EXCAVO breaks down what actually separates professionals from the crowd in today’s volatile cycle.
— In one of your posts, you mentioned that BTC is currently the most convenient instrument for quickly reducing risk. To put it simply, are institutions holding Bitcoin as a long-term investment today, or are they using it more like a “risk-off button”?
EXCAVO: Institutions primarily view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic investment, albeit one that sits in the high-risk category of their portfolios. The data from the past decade is clear: Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets one could own. This track record has solidified its acceptance. From a fundamental standpoint, its long-term value is underpinned by a deflationary model—a fixed supply, diminishing issuance through halvings, and rising demand. This makes it a compelling asset. We are also seeing institutions build sophisticated derivatives on top of it, which is not something you do with a temporary tool. They are creating second-order instruments to allow broader financial participation, which signals a long-term commitment. Many serious players view it as "digital gold," a hedge against currency debasement. While it remains highly volatile, it has become a driver of market sentiment. For most funds, the question is no longer if they should have Bitcoin in their portfolio, but rather at what price they should enter.
— You outlined the 48–74k range as your base scenario. If the price moves above 74k before September 2026, would that mean the market surprised you, or simply that the cycle is moving faster than you expected?
E: Based on my models, we are approximately one-third of the way through the current bear market and are in the process of bottom formation. If the price were to move above $74k, it wouldn't surprise me at all. I would interpret it as a sign of premature and hasty buying from market participants who understand that the window to acquire Bitcoin at 5-digit prices is closing. My definition of a bear market is not just a price decline; it's a prolonged, grueling, low-volatility state that culminates in maximum psychological despair. I've lived through several of these cycles, and the emotional script is always remarkably similar. We are not there yet. I've been in this market long enough to stop being surprised. Whether we go above $74k or dip below $48k, neither outcome would invalidate the underlying cyclical model. It would simply mean the market is gathering liquidity with higher volatility before settling into the next phase.
— You often say that “no trade is also a position.” Have there been periods in your career when you barely traded for months? And what was the signal that told you it was time to become active again?
E: Absolutely. A recent example was the period from September 2025 to February of this year. I closed all my altcoin and Bitcoin positions and did not actively trade. My only activity was setting limit orders at points of maximum pain, some of which triggered and have already been closed for a profit. Currently, I don't expect significant directional moves in the crypto market, so my focus has shifted to assets like oil and gold, where there is more "energy." These quiet periods in crypto are invaluable. They are opportunities for rest, research, and self-improvement, because in this line of work, if you aren't evolving, you're degrading. The signal to become active again isn't a single indicator but a confluence of factors:
- Psychological Capitulation: The market conversation shifts to extreme downside targets ($35k, $22k). Maximum despair is a reliable contrarian indicator.
- Volatility Compression: A prolonged period of extremely low volatility, which signals the market is building energy for its next major move.
- Timing: My cyclical models point to specific time windows where a bottom is likely to form. A market bottom is formed on despair, just as a top is formed on euphoria.
When these conditions align, it's time to re-engage.
— In one of your TradingView posts, you pointed out that native exchange tokens such as OKB, WBT, BNB, and others have historically outperformed BTC. We are seeing renewed interest in this segment now. Is this driven by real fundamentals, or is there a risk of repeating 2021, when much of the growth was fueled mainly by hype?
E: Exchange tokens possess a real fundamental advantage: they are tied to one of the only consistently profitable business models in the crypto industry. Unlike many altcoins, they have clear utility through fee discounts, launchpad access, and ecosystem participation. The native token often acts as a barometer for the health of the exchange itself.
However, they are not immune to market cycles and hype. The risk of repeating 2021 exists, but it's lower than for projects without a sustainable business model. I see significant potential, especially in the tokens of new and emerging exchanges. For instance, there are rumors about a potential token from Bitunix, and if that happens, it could present a major opportunity.
We're also seeing sophisticated traders actively farming airdrops on perpetual DEXs, which points to where the "smart money" sees future growth. Historically, a portfolio of carefully selected exchange tokens has performed very well. It remains one of the most pragmatic and fundamentally-grounded investment theses in the altcoin space.
— WhiteBIT hosted the world’s first International Crypto Trading Cup, a global online crypto trading tournament. What are your personal impressions of this format? If such tournaments become regular, would you be willing to participate and test your system in a fully public and competitive environment?
E: Thank you for this question. Participating in the International Crypto Trading Cup was one of the most profound and exciting experiences of my entire trading career. When I was invited, I accepted the challenge without hesitation. As a public trader, I'm used to operating transparently, but a live tournament format adds an entirely different layer of pressure. The primary risk isn't financial; it's reputational. You are testing your system and, more importantly, your psychological resilience under immense public scrutiny. The pressure on every participant was enormous. My preparation was focused heavily on mental discipline. I've found that practices like meditation and focused visualization are incredibly effective for maintaining clarity and composure under stress. In fact, I had a difficult start on the first day and was in a drawdown for most of the tournament. However, by staying disciplined, I made a series of good decisions and finished in third place with a 4% gain. I have immense respect for WhiteBIT for organizing this event at such a high level. A trader's life can be quite solitary, and offline events like this are incredibly valuable for the community. They enrich our careers with vivid experiences. If such tournaments become regular, I would absolutely be willing to participate again. Testing your system in a fully competitive environment is the ultimate measure of its robustness.
— In one of your TradingView analyses, you pointed out that BTC often starts declining precisely when the news flow looks positive, and the majority feels optimistic. Why does the market so often move against the crowd’s expectations? Is it manipulation, liquidity mechanics, or simply psychology at work?
E: This is a market axiom that applies to all financial instruments, not just Bitcoin. A major market top is almost always formed on euphoria, never on fear. It’s a combination of liquidity mechanics, information asymmetry, and mass psychology. The simplest way to explain it is through the lifecycle of information. A new trend is initiated by insiders. It's then picked up by sophisticated early adopters. Finally, when the trend is obvious and the news is overwhelmingly positive, the crowd enters en masse. That final stage of public euphoria is precisely when the initial insiders begin to distribute their holdings. But the most critical factor is liquidity mechanics. For a large player to sell a significant position, there must be a buyer on the other side. The greatest number of willing buyers—fueled by optimistic news and a fear of missing out—appears at the peak of a rally. Smart money uses this wave of retail buying as the necessary exit liquidity to unload their positions. It's not necessarily a malicious manipulation; it's an economic necessity. Psychology creates the conditions, and liquidity mechanics execute the move.
— In your TradingView breakdown, you highlighted RWA, infrastructure, and DeFi v2 as segments that remain structurally alive even in difficult market phases. If you had to choose one of them with a multi-year horizon, which would you consider the most promising and why?
E: With a multi-year horizon, I consider RWA to be the most promising segment, without a doubt. Historically, the greatest wealth is generated at the intersection of two powerful systems. Here, we have the intersection of the multi-trillion dollar traditional financial market and the efficiency of the blockchain. Imagine a world where shares of any U.S. company are tokenized and tradeable 24/7 on decentralized platforms, accessible to anyone on the planet. This will unlock an unprecedented wave of new capital into global markets. It is essentially the foundation for "Stock Market 2.0." This trend will also create a new class of investors—those who can combine traditional financial analysis with deep on-chain expertise. The involvement of giants like BlackRock with projects like ONDO is not a test; it's a clear signal that the foundational work for this trend is already underway. It represents a structural evolution of financial markets, and it is already happening.
— In one of your texts, you said that many people will leave the market not because of falling prices, but because of their own psychology. What is the most common psychological mistake you see traders making during these cycles?
E: The most common mistake is not a single bad trade, but a slow psychological burnout born from market fixation. Many traders, especially in crypto, focus exclusively on this one asset class. When crypto enters a prolonged, sideways stagnation—which it often does—it’s opportunity cost becomes immense. They aren't necessarily losing money from falling prices, but they are losing time, mental capital, and missing opportunities elsewhere. This leads to frustration, forcing bad trades, and ultimately, despair. My personal solution to this has been to diversify my activity across different markets. When crypto is stagnant, I actively trade oil, gold, and indices where there is volatility and clear trends. This keeps my skills sharp, maintains psychological equilibrium, and ensures I am not dependent on a single market's condition. Many people leave not because they were liquidated, but because they grew exhausted and disillusioned waiting for a market that wasn't moving. The failure to adapt and seek opportunities across the entire financial landscape is the most destructive psychological error I see.
— You have your own course for traders and have emphasized that you teach market structure rather than just a set of indicators. How difficult is it to build a course like that? How long did it take you to develop your methodology, and what is usually the hardest part for students to truly understand?
E: Creating a course based on market structure is a profound challenge because you have to systematize something that has become intuitive over more than a decade of experience. My methodology is a living thing; it evolves as the markets evolve. That's why I release lessons weekly—it allows the curriculum to grow and adapt, like my recent deep dive into AI agents. By far, the hardest part for students to truly internalize is not a specific pattern or indicator, but two fundamental psychological shifts: patience and probabilistic thinking. Most people come into trading with a mindset of "I need to make money today." The hardest lesson is learning that "no trade" is a valid and often profitable position. It's about waiting patiently, like a sniper, for the perfect setup. The second challenge is moving away from the search for a Holy Grail—a system that is always right. Professional trading is the art of managing probabilities. I teach students how to identify high-probability setups, but they must also accept that even the best setup can fail. Making that mental leap from seeking certainty to managing uncertainty is the most difficult—and most important—step in any trader's journey.
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