In crypto, everyone talks about the next bull run — far fewer talk about how to survive when it doesn’t arrive on schedule. In the second episode of Crypto Minds, Unfiltered, we speak with Nick Smohorzhevskiy, CIO of Solus Group, about why 2026 is not a classic growth cycle but an era of selective, active bets shaped by macro volatility and global liquidity shifts. From stablecoins as a systemic layer of global finance to the brutal importance of execution, distribution, and real business models over buzzwords, Nick dissects what actually makes a project investable today — and why founders who still pitch speculation instead of strategy are already behind.
— From your LinkedIn posts, it’s clear you focus a lot on macro trends and liquidity. How do you assess the current state of the Web3 market from an investor’s perspective? Is this already a growth phase, or still a period of selective bets?
Nick: Definitely not a growth phase, at least in the form that we are used to it. We are jumping into an era of a wider window of opportunities, and with that, you need to navigate the chaos. The world uncertainty index was at its peak in 2025 and continued to spike in 2026. Higher volatility, lower investment activity, and people don’t know what to do with that.
But what we need to do now is basically to create new opportunities, look for market inefficiencies, and diversify through markets. And yeah, not just Web3, but different markets. It is impossible to say for sure that we will have a safe haven here. At least if your investment horizon is not a minimum of 5 years. And even here, we have a lot of geopolitical uncertainty that is coming into play.
For a shorter period, investors, funds, and even individuals must adapt. The easiest explanation of what to do is “go from passive management to active management”. If you can’t be active in something, don’t get yourself there, don’t have any exposure. Why so? More people have had the opportunity to play the game, not to win, but at least to play. And most of the players are low-skilled or AFK. If you are passive, you are AFK. Earlier, I needed to manage tons of processes and didn’t have any time to check on those passively managed investors — now I can capitalize on it. More capacity due to AI, higher market dynamics — and yeah, welcome in.
So, look for selective bets, where you can be active and bring value. Look wider across markets and solve the inefficiencies, both as an investor and as a builder.
— You previously wrote about the growth of stablecoin supply and its impact on the U.S. Treasury market. Do you see stablecoins today more as payment infrastructure, or as a systemic element of global liquidity?
N: It’s a systemic element of global liquidity to say it in short. With the recent news, we can see that the banks are fighting because they’re scared they won’t be able to compete. They’re scared to lose control. But we can clearly see that some players are adopting the narrative, while others are scared. Stablecoins by themselves are obviously a powerful element for the future financial system. Why? Because the agentic economy will be using them, not fiat, as the number of operations and the speed they need are just different, banks won’t be able to deal with that, and it all should be regulated and automated, as you can’t call an AI Agent and ask where that money comes from. So, to sum that up — stablecoins are inevitable, they just propose wider solutions, better infra, and higher yield, a reason why banks are blocking them. So, if you can’t compete, you need to adopt or die.
— You work with a large number of early-stage startups. Which types of Web3 startups look the most promising for venture investment today: infrastructure, finance, AI, consumer, or something else?
N: Currently, I would cherry-pick anything institutional-related, PayFi, infrastructure, tokenization, equity plays, etc. But to narrow it down even more, and make it wider at the same time, I would say that any startup founder who can execute can choose the niche he or she likes and build the product that will perform, especially if they have the right connections. Currently, the market is focused around institutional plays, but basically institutions will be focused on B2C and SME plays after that, and this is also something we lack in the market.
— If we strip away the hype, what core characteristics do you consider essential for a project to be attractive to investors in 2026?
N: Business model, concrete distribution funnels, users. We are going away from speculation to maturity, where real businesses are playing a real game, and these are the core characteristics. Longevity and flexibility are also important. If AI can kill your product and you’ll be useless within a year, not the type of product I will look into. And geopolitical plays finally come to the table as well.
— From your experience, what matters more for a startup when raising capital today: strong technology, a clear economic model, or the right positioning for investors?
N: Tech is something a lot of people can build; good tech is something most of the people won’t understand. So while tech is definitely valuable, execution around it matters more. Positioning yourself clearly is valuable as well, but when speculation fades away, we are facing the “I see you through your buzz-words” type of DD. We always should, but the markets were different, so a lot were skipping that, and I hated it. And finally, the economic model — obviously it should be on the spot with clear financials and unit-e, but without users — these will be just the numbers in the table. Summing up with a clear but not overcomplicated tech, right positioning with useless buzz-words and economics that actually work, but adding a clear PMF and UA funnels — this is what I would look at. And obviously don’t forget about GTM, especially for the filled markets.
— When you look at a new Web3 project, which signals immediately spark interest, and which ones raise red flags, even if market sentiment around the project looks positive?
N: I won’t say there are single points that spark interest, obviously, sometimes the uncle of a founder may be a VP at Federal Reserve Bank, and sometimes people are launching stablecoins with BlackRock and Fidelity, which gives you certainty. But at the end of the day, you need a full puzzle, especially in the institutional-grade products, with all legal, tech, product, and other complexities. On the side, the problems — you always need to do a deep co-founder and team DD, sometimes with a 5-minute of LinkedIn-X-Address-arkham analysis, you’ll come to a point where he ruined the community for $1M–$10M in the last 6 months, and now he is saying he has money to build his new startup. Expect this obvious red flag; you also have a lack of experience and understanding, which will be clear from the call, not from the deck. And finally, it is about the structure: numbers are different, takes are different, tthe solution does not solve a real problem, or the problem doesn’t exist — all of that is just a sign of a lack of business intelligence.
— If you were launching your own Web3 startup today, which segment would you invest your time and capital in first?
N: Personally, I won’t. Not because the market is bad or some other reason people may come up with, but because with the network my partners and I have, we can support an ecosystem and are working with some already, so building a single product is not the most effective way to utilize the resources I have.
As for advice, it depends on your expertise and network. I would suggest building a financial infrastructure to solve the specific problem, but if you don’t have neobank or government-type contacts, distribution will be hard. I would love to build. Something around tokenization is a bit easier, but most people focus on tech when building there, while tech is the easiest, but secondary market creation and legal aspects may be challenging. Lastly, I would like to say the obvious — the right model and distribution can give you the opportunity to build in any niche, as there are still gaming projects that have raised $55M in a week after launch, due to new design and a better monetization model.
— You operate at the intersection of investments, strategy, and startups. What is the single most important piece of advice you would give to Web3 founders who want to be genuinely attractive to investors, not just on paper?
N: I would give three in one:
- Focus on business, not on speculation;
- Focus on GTM strategy and distribution; users won’t come to you by themselves.
- Don’t use playbooks; they limit your scale: find market inefficiencies and capitalize on them.
— You’ve seen multiple market cycles and worked with founders at very different stages. Based on your experience, what is the most common mistake Web3 founders make when pitching to investors for the first time?
N: They talk about what they have and what they plan to have. And not about the process of achieving it. Tech is useless unless it is being used. Future numbers are on paper until you execute. And once again, the only thing that matters is the execution. So, take the normal route and talk:
- Not “Our solution to that problem”, but “this is why and how our product solves it.”
- Not “Imagine if we capture 1% of the market” but “We aim to capture x% of the market, by doing xyz.”
- Not “We don’t have competitors / We are better at everything” but “Our USP is X, and this is the point where we’ll find our PMF.”
- My favorite take: GTM is not “KOLs, ads, social activations and random numbers in MAU”, but a strategy of “We will be using these resources to achieve XXX results in a given timeline, these are our KPIs” and a deeper story on how you will achieve them.
The only thing you have in a startup mode is the team, and you need to make sure the investors believe — “This team can execute, because they have it all cleared out.”
— Looking back at the deals and projects you’ve been involved in, what was a decision that didn’t look obvious at the time but later turned out to be absolutely right from an investment perspective?
N: Looking for sustainability, while others were looking for speculation. Most of the market is feeling bad today, but while everyone was playing ICOs and trenches, we were building a wider but still solid foundation for our business. And when looking back at the deals we were working with — most of them have built a sustainable business model outside of token hype and speculation, which I like. So the best bet you can make is turning prospects into long-term partners and growing together. While everyone else is seizing the trenches, you will be able to create opportunities others don’t have access to.
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