AI innovation - an unstoppable force, meets an immmovable object - software jobs. So many arguments. Endless predictions. Countless hours wasted. Neither side is winning.
If you've read my previous articles and some of my tweets, I am very skeptical to AI and do not hold to the belief that software jobs will be replaced by it.
However, the goal of this article is not to win an argument, prove a point, or filter through the noise. I want to listen to the noise, find where it's coming from, and study why the noise is being made.
Idle Observers
I will start out by locating where the noise is coming from.
The majority of people who take part in the argument about AI and Software Jobs are what I refer to as idle observers - people who cheer for their side without taking any course of action to back their beliefs.
Those who hold to the belief that software will not be replaced by AI are just sitting ducks, waiting for the so-called "AI Bubble" to pop. Sitting idle and hoping to outlast the enemy without taking any course of action whatsoever is not winning. The AI hype train has dragged on long enough to safely assume that there will be no rapture for those who think they know how to code.
On the other side, people who heavily use vibe coding tools as a means to acquire dopamine and clout while boldly making a claim backed by nothing isn't doing much either.
Binding Factors
Now that we know where the noise is coming from, let's talk about why the noise is being made.
In the ocean of opinions on this topic, I've found that the two primary factors in this argument are Value and Risk.
Value
Many people don't realize that the term "value" is subjective. In the same sense that a diamond offers little to no value to a starving animal (eating a diamond may provide little relief to a very unintelligent organism), the best sorting algorithm implementation offers little to no value to the average end user.
Since the argument of AI potentially replacing jobs revolves around the rapid generation of software projects, I will take a moment to cover the value of software.
The Value of Software
In software, there are incompatibilities across operating systems, CPU architecture, and web browsers. A Windows-only application won't be of any value to a Mac user, and vice-versa.
A content creator may find specific video editing software valuable enough to (God forbid) pay Adobe for it, while others look for alternatives or don't edit videos at all.
If a software engineer finds a tool that drastically improves his workflow, chances are he probably won't tell his grandmother about it (or any non-technical people for that matter) because he knows it will be of no value to her.
AI tools are extremely versatile and can provide immediate value to most individuals, espicially when it comes to generating code. Since AI tools can fit the needs of most individuals very closely, people who use them are more likely to share them with others.
Sharing things that can potentially help others is an act of kindness, and is not necessarily a bad thing. Unless that thing is an AI slop video generator.
In conclusion, the reason why there is so much hype around AI is because people find value in it.
Risk
Risk pulls in the opposite direction of Value when it comes to AI-generated code and is primarily what's keeping software jobs rooted in place.
Both humans and AI are unpredictable. An employee could randomly choose to steal workplace equipment or commit fraud on the job. Likewise, an LLM may choose to make up something or refuse to tell you something it deems harmful.
Most people would agree that hiring an experienced worker will result in less risk than hiring an intern. In fact, experienced workers are paid more than their inferior counterparts because of their ability and the lower chance of risk.
Risk cannot be measured, but it can be reduced with incentives.
Incentives
A soldier defending his country from the enemy is more likely to fight harder because he has something to fight for.
Likewise, employees are willing to work because of the incentive to get paid.
The reason why most people don't play life-threatening practical jokes in the workplace or steal workplace equipment is because they want to continue to get paid.
Unlike employed humans, LLMs have nothing to lose. No matter how aggressively you form its instructions, it has no real incentives to perform better.
This is the same reason why communism doesn't work. If someone has all their basic needs met regardless of their contribution to society, there is no real motivation to contribute.
Conclusion
I hope this article gives you a better understanding of both sides and gives you a topological view of how silly we are butting heads against each other whilst accomplishing nothing.
I want to stop fighting about AI and software jobs. Let's be at peace with each other while we build great things.
(This does not apply to Communists. I will not be at peace with Communists)
Original Article Link: https://x.com/IroncladDev/status/2017006861300494603
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