Introduction
In the previous article, I wrote about “Unknown Unknowns.”
This time, let’s look at Known Knowns.
As mentioned before, when we create long-term plans, we often lose resources to “unpredictable problems.” Tasks that only reveal themselves once we start working and unexpected obstacles always exist to some degree. These elements do shake our plans.
But what tends to be overlooked is Known Knowns — the things we already know and are fully aware of. In other words, the domain we understand and can reliably control.
In reality, the quality of a long-term plan is shaped not only by how we prepare for Unknown Unknowns.
How effectively we identify and use our Known Knowns as the foundation of a plan is equally important.
What are Known Knowns?
While Unknown Unknowns refer to unpredictable and unforeseen issues, Known Knowns are “things we know, and know that we know.”
They are stable, reliable pieces of information drawn from our experience, patterns, and well-understood facts.
Examples include:
- Your personal work pace and how long you can focus
- Tasks that always follow the same pattern (prep work, cleanup, adjustments)
- Repeatable behavioral tendencies (morning person / night person, effect of work environments)
- The minimum time you know a certain task always requires
- Predictable fluctuations based on your health or daily rhythms
These things feel too “obvious” to notice, but they are actually crucial pillars that support any plan.
If Unknown Unknowns are the forces that shake a plan, Known Knowns are the ground on which the plan stands.
Why Known Knowns matter
Because Known Knowns are “things we already know,” they tend to be ignored.
However, this also means they are non-negotiable assumptions — the conditions that must never be overlooked.
It’s understandable to stumble over unexpected problems.
But when a plan collapses because we ignored things we already knew, that’s a completely avoidable failure.
For example:
- This task always takes at least three hours
- My productivity always dips on weekends
- Adopting a new tool always consumes time at the start
- Large projects always involve coordination work
If these recurring patterns are left out of a plan, distortion is inevitable.
This is why Known Knowns should be treated as required, 100% guaranteed constraints and built directly into the structure of any long-term plan.
While keeping an eye on Unknown Unknowns is important, the first step is to handle the facts you already understand with care.
Doing so dramatically improves the stability and accuracy of any plan.
Conclusion
We often focus on weaknesses or new challenges.
Yet what consistently supports our plans is the set of things we already know — our Known Knowns.
- Tasks that reliably appear every time
- Habits and personal rhythms that repeat
- Processes inherently required by the nature of the project
These may feel “obvious,” but they are essential anchors that determine how stable a plan will be.
Preparing for the unknown is important.
But respecting the known — the facts already in front of us — is what truly elevates the quality of a plan.
The more uncertain the environment, the more powerful this simple perspective becomes.
Thank you for reading!
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