The point of this post is to temper expectations for AI, not bash it.
I know I Know, AI is amazing and it has greatly increased our lives and how we work. I'm NOT saying AI isn't amazing, All I'm saying is there is a lot of fluff out there and expectations need to be set. This post should NOT be a discouragement for building your own AI to learn or grow, by all means PLEASE do that.
Remember not too long ago when Blockchain was the new hype? There were SO many companies hyping their new "Blockchain Tech" and it just felt so silly to me. Blockchain's true power isn't in the ledger, its in the decentralization of that ledger where it has its true power. So a company who is using a centralized Blockchain, what's the point? Just fire up a SQL database at that point. I'm a huge proponent of Bitcoin, I have since 2017. Bitcoin is savings technology to me, and a flat out cure for all the issues fiat currency provides.
(I do have to state, there is MUCH more utility and worth in AI vs Blockchain. I mean who ever needed a Blockchain for dentists?)
I see a lot of of people posting their AI tool or website that either is exactly like someone else's or it solves no real world problem or has limited value. These people may also be creating projects just for the sake of learning and development, which is also very admirable, but the ones who are trying to create a product that has been done plenty of other times, oof...this feels like the dot com bubble all over again.
Good news is, we did get a lot of good from the dot com bubble, like Amazon, eBay, etc. However there were a TON of companies created with zero worth behind them, or very limited value.
I'm not really able to see what is going on in tech, x (twitter) be sustained. At some point people will have to come to terms with, "Ok, maybe I don't need to make another AI that does xyz, there are already plenty out there that do".
Hype Cycle
Hype cycle needs to be considered and talked about to properly gauge expectations of what may be on the horizon. Again I said "may be", I don't know the future. This is definitely not financial or investment advice.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical representation developed by the American research, advisory, and information technology firm Gartner. It represents the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies. The cycle provides a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, offering a source of insight to manage its deployment within the context of specific business goals.
The Hype Cycle is characterized by five key phases of a technology’s life cycle:
Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories, often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most do not.
Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of the technology’s benefits start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.
Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
This could help explain why we see a surge in AI-related projects and startups.
*If we take a look at the Gartner Hype Cycle, and compare it to Nvidia's weekly chart, I'm sort of inclined to think we are at or near the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
Quality vs Quantity
I had this friend who wanted to start a jump park, it was just a drunken night business idea he had. We had about 4 or more of them in the immediate area. He also has kids and saw the opportunity in it since his kids loved the jump park. I explained to him I have seen a rise of these jump parks in our area, so why would we want to add another one? Will they stand the test of time? Is this hype? Will there be more built as well? This is how my mind works and it's the exact reason before I do something, I try to analyze its importance.
How many more jump parks do we need? Obviously that is an analogy for AI. Are we really getting the quality out of AI right now? I think we are trending in that direction for sure. I think what needs to happen first is a cleansing and then we can get to the REAL innovation. It’s the groundbreaking AI projects that will stand the test of time.
Conclusion
Unfortunately, I feel like any real true innovation will be created by the Big Dawgs. Lets say you have a new AI service or tool, what is stopping MS, Apple, Google from implementing these services themselves? I DO NOT want to stifle anyone from building something, I just want to help people think more before they act as well as create realistic expectations of what is to come.
So tell me, do you agree? Disagree? Is there something I am missing? Am the fool for not building another AI chat bot or tool?
Top comments (0)