A possession battle similar to Norway’s, but with a different approach.
UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 Quarterfinal — Norway vs Italy
In the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 quarterfinals, Italy beat Norway 2-1 to reach the semifinals. While neither team was a clear favorite, the way Italy approached the match was very different from their group stage strategy. The data shows how this tactical shift helped them succeed.
The data reveals why this happened.
1. Group Stage Data: Italy Was Clearly a Defensive Team
Here is a summary of the two teams’ group stage averages:
| Team | Goals | xG | Big Chances | Possession (%) | Pass Accuracy (%) | Errors → Goal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 1.0 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 38.7 | 76.3 | 0.67 |
| Norway | 2.67 | 1.38 | 2.67 | 49.3 | 76.0 | 0 |
Insights:
- Italy had the lowest possession rate in the tournament → a clear defensive and stable strategy.
- Norway showed more goals and big chances, with better attacking efficiency.
2. What Happened in the Quarterfinals?
The quarterfinal match data is as follows:
| Team | Goals | xG | Big Chances | Possession (%) | Shots on Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 2 | 2.03 | 4 | 50 | 6 |
| Norway | 1 | 2.28 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
Key changes:
- Possession increased to 50% (from 38.7% in the group stage, +11.3%)
- Big chances rose to 4 (3 times higher than group average of 1.33)
- Risk minimized: Only 2 fouls, 0 errors leading to goals
👉 Italy successfully switched to a more attacking style while keeping defensive stability.
3. Why Was This Change Possible?
Main hypothesis:
- Norway focused on midfield possession and defensive stability, but applied low forward pressure, giving Italy more space to build attacks.
- Italy shifted from a counter-attack style to gradual build-up play using half-spaces, expanding their attacking options.
- The increase in big chances came from stronger wing attacks and more players joining forward positions.
4. Visualization: Before vs After
Below is code to visualize Italy’s improved attacking stats.
5. Conclusion
- Based on group stage data alone, Norway seemed slightly favored.
- However, style matchup and tactical changes in the knockout phase changed the result.
- Italy increased possession and improved build-up play, while maintaining defensive solidity and maximizing attacking efficiency.
👉 What do you think was the biggest reason Italy changed so much?
- Tactical adjustments?
- Psychological factors?
- Norway’s low pressing intensity?
Please share your thoughts in the comments!
🙋♀️About Me
Hi, I’m Marina Kim (Eunji), a sports data content creator learning and sharing football stories through data.
Tools: Python, pandas, matplotlib
Data Source: Flashscore
Github: https://github.com/k-eunji/norway_italy_qf
I’m open to new opportunities in sports data and content creation. Let’s connect if you’re interested!
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