The group stage is almost done. Spain already qualified for the quarter-finals, but second place is still open.
1. Group B Standings (after 2 matches)
| Team | Pts | GD | GS | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 6 | +9 | 11 | 2 |
| Italy | 4 | +1 | 2 | 1 |
| Portugal | 1 | -5 | 1 | 6 |
| Belgium | 0 | -5 | 2 | 7 |
- ✅ Spain is already in the quarter-finals.
- Italy is in 2nd place now.
- Portugal still have a chance.
2. Last Group Matches
- Spain vs Italy
- Portugal vs Belgium
1) Portugal vs Belgium – Who Is Better?
Average Stats (2 matches):
| Matrics | Portugal | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| Shots on target | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Possession (%) | 50.0 | 36.5 |
| Goals conceded | 3.0 | 3.5 |
_Insight>
Portugal dominates possession and passes better, while Belgium has slightly more output up front.
Portugal has the edge, especially if they tighten up defensively.
2) Spain vs Italy – Can Italy Stop Spain?
Average Stats:
| Metric | Spain | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per match | 5.5 | 1.0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.60 | 0.86 |
| Possession (%) | 75.5 | 50.0 |
| Big chances | 10 | 1 |
Insight>
According to the data, Spain has shown overwhelming performance so far. Italy’s defense is solid, but their attack is very weak (only 1 goal in 2 games). Italy only needs a draw to reach the quarter-finals, but it won’t be easy. Spain is expected to win by at least 2 goals.
3. Qualification Scenarios
Group B Qualification Scenarios – Who Gets 2nd Place?
| Scenario | Italy Points | Portugal Points | 2nd Place Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain beats Italy, Portugal wins big | 4 | 4 | Depends on goal difference |
| Spain wins, Portugal wins narrowly | 4 | 4 | Italy likely (better GD) |
| Italy draws vs Spain | 5 | ≤4 | Italy qualifies |
| Italy beats Spain | 7 | ≤4 | Italy wins the group |
| Italy and Portugal tied on points and GD, their match was a draw | 4 | 4 | Portugal likely advances by total goals scored |
Explanation
- If Italy and Portugal have the same points and goal difference (GD), the result of their head-to-head match is checked.
- If their head-to-head match was a draw, then the team with more total goals scored in the group advances.
- So, if Italy loses by 2 goals to Spain, and Portugal wins by 3 goals, both end up with 4 points and the same GD (-1).
- Since their match was a draw, Portugal would likely advance because they have scored more goals overall.
- Italy only needs a draw against Spain to secure 2nd place without depending on other results.
4. Final Prediction (based on data)
✨ Italy is the most likely team to advance as 2nd place, unless Portugal pulls off a big win and Italy loses badly.
🙋♀️About Me
Hi, I’m Marina Kim (Eunji), a sports data content creator learning and sharing football stories through data.
- Tools: Python, pandas, seaborn
- Data Source: Flashscore
- Github: https://github.com/k-eunji/group_b_weuro2025
I’m open to new opportunities in sports data and content creation. Let’s connect if you’re interested!
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