UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 Quarterfinal — Norway vs Italy
Kickoff: 16 July 2025, 20:00 (UK Time)
In the Women’s Euro 2025 quarterfinal, Norway and Italy share many similarities. Both Norway and Italy have below 50% possession on average (49.3% and 38.7% respectively) but rely on strong defense and fast counterattacks.
This match features two teams who control less ball but play efficiently.
1. Team Style Comparison
| Stats | Norway | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Average Possession (%) | 49.3 | 38.7 |
| Average Shots | 10.7 | 14.7 |
| Average Shots on Target | 4.3 | 5 |
| Average Goals | 2.67 | 1 |
| Average xG | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| Big Chances | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Tackle Success Rate (%) | 61.3 | 60 |
| Average Clearances | 22.3 | 23.3 |
| Average Saves | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| Allowed HxGOT | 2.09 | 2.79 |
| Goals Prevented (Expected) | +0.09 | -0.21 |
Graph 1: Average Possession Comparison
Norway holds a higher average possession (49.3%) than Italy (38.7%), meaning Norway controls the ball slightly more in matches.
Graph 2: Attack Metrics Comparison
Italy leads in total shots (14.7) and shots on target (5), but Norway outperforms Italy in goals scored (2.67) and big chances created (2.67), showing more clinical finishing and chance conversion.
Graph 3: Defensive Metrics Comparison
Both teams show similar tackle success rates and clearances, but Italy has more errors leading to scoring chances, suggesting a potential weakness in their defensive reliability.
2. Norway: Efficient Use of Space and Quick Timing
Norway has moderate possession but creates many chances. They score 2.67 goals per game with an xG of 1.38 and make 2.67 big chances. Their goalkeeper is key, making 4.33 saves per game and stopping more goals than expected (+0.09).
Key Points:
- Efficient use of space by penetrating attackers
- Rapid chance creation by exploiting opponent defensive transitions
- Stable defensive line with effective finishing
3. Italy: Structured Defense and One-Touch Attacks
Italy has low possession (38.7%) but creates many shots (14.7) and shots on target (5). However, they score fewer goals (1.0) and have fewer big chances (1.33) than Norway. Their defense allows a high expected goals on target (2.79), and their negative goals prevented (-0.21) suggests some defensive or goalkeeping weaknesses.
Key Points:
- Traditional deep defensive line setup
- Direct attacks relying on limited but quality chances
- Some doubts remain about defensive consistency
4. Defensive Statistics Breakdown
| Stats | Norway | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Tackle Success Rate | 61.3% | 60% |
| Clearances | 22.3 | 23.3 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 8.7 |
| Errors Leading to Shots | 0 | 0.67 |
Italy leads in interceptions, showing good defensive organization. However, their 0.67 errors leading to scoring chances could be risky in a high-stakes quarterfinal. Norway’s zero errors here suggest greater defensive stability.
5. Conclusion: Who Has the Edge?
Norway is favored to win.
- Norway shows more consistent performance, better big chance creation, and stronger goal prevention.
- Italy has higher shot volume but less efficiency in threat and finishing.
- Defensive mistakes pose a bigger risk for Italy.
👉 Considering balance and transition efficiency, Norway seems one step ahead.
6. Final Takeaway
Possession isn’t key. When both teams have less ball, the one who uses chances better wins. Let’s see who proves it tomorrow.
🙋♀️About Me
Hi, I’m Marina Kim (Eunji), a sports data content creator learning and sharing football stories through data.
Tools: Python, pandas
Data Source: Flashscore
Github: https://github.com/k-eunji/norway_italy
I’m open to new opportunities in sports data and content creation. Let’s connect if you’re interested!
Top comments (0)