It always depends on what the near future is. I tried to make the point, that it doesn't need human intelligence to replace a big part of the programmers working now.
If we think about it in terms of the past, we have to wait for true sentience level AI that does the exact job we do now. But with shifting paradigms like in the last few years, we could find ourselves having skills that are no longer needed. Not in a year, but in ten?
The first iPhone came ten years ago and today people dont know how to use maps anymore. Or timetables. And there's an app for everything, and if there isn't, you use Siri. (not yet, but soon ;). PCs are in decline and most important: outside of work, no one uses laptops anymore.
My point is: if we look at the future with todays knowledge, we can probably predict the next five years. If thats your horizon I think you are very right with your assessment.
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It always depends on what the near future is. I tried to make the point, that it doesn't need human intelligence to replace a big part of the programmers working now.
If we think about it in terms of the past, we have to wait for true sentience level AI that does the exact job we do now. But with shifting paradigms like in the last few years, we could find ourselves having skills that are no longer needed. Not in a year, but in ten?
The first iPhone came ten years ago and today people dont know how to use maps anymore. Or timetables. And there's an app for everything, and if there isn't, you use Siri. (not yet, but soon ;). PCs are in decline and most important: outside of work, no one uses laptops anymore.
My point is: if we look at the future with todays knowledge, we can probably predict the next five years. If thats your horizon I think you are very right with your assessment.