Off the bat, I absolutely recognize that this is a somewhat utopian vision, and Google, Apple, and the rest are unlikely to relinquish their power. But I don't think it's entirely out of the picture, and I think it deserves some discussion.
I agree about the discussion worth, my argument was mainly about the fact that it might not actually matter, because it wouldn't probably be binding. It's totally not the same thing but you just reminded me of the Paris Climate agreement. I don't have the tools to have a definite opinion on that but I know as a citizen of this Earth that if you make an agreement that sovereign countries have no obligation to respect and if they don't (see the US) nothing happens, well, the result is just a feel good utopia, to borrow your word because people can go their separate ways without consequences.
There's a difference though. If I'm choosing an operating system, I'm choosing it for myself (or my organization or whatever). If I'm choosing a programming language, it's really for me. My end user doesn't typically know the difference (with some exceptions).
Are we sure we're really choosing? Far from invoking theories of being in a simulation or issues of true freedom but... well, the tech we choose is (for the most part) the result of the environment we have around and has consequences for the end users (though I know what you mean and probably the following analogy shouldn't be used here because we both understand each other). The analogy is Electron, I know people like to bash on it and I'm sorry to use it again, but if my tech choice means that I'm going to shave off 500mb of the RAM of a person that might have only 4GB, well that's a choice that has an impact. The same way a badly written website might have megabytes of JS that have a real impact on users (and this would happen even in the "universal engine" scenario).
But if I want to write a web app that relies on a certain API, and Chrome shipped it 15 versions ago but Firefox hasn't gotten there yet, I'm stuck.
I see, that's true but at the same time, are you stuck because you don't have access to that API or are you stuck because the lack of that new API impedes your ability to deliver a good UX to the user? After all we didn't have many of the "Chrome only" APIs until the day before they were announced and we were mostly fine. I don't want to sound like a luddite because I'm not but not every technological advancement is needed, sometimes it's just because developers like us have found a better or smarter way to accomplish something we were already doing the day before.
I totally subscribe the argument of productivity though, APIs and abstractions help us deliver products faster and that's important.
The reason I think Edge shares may increase is the same reason IE11 still shows up in the stats: people (especially non-technical people) have a tendency to use what comes on the box if there's not a good reason to switch.
True that but if Microsoft doesn't plan to release a new operating system, then "what comes with the box" for existing customers is a sailed ship if they've already switched to Chrome. Unless MS plans an aggressive marketing campaign I don't see a person happy with Chrome switching back. An entirely different argument is to be made for people who purchase new computers, but even that might be unpredictable (maybe they have an Android phone and they want to sync bookmarks ;-)). We'll see.
I would honestly be glad to see Edge Chromium (even if in my heart I would have preferred an Edge Servo) raise in stats, because of the reasons mentioned before about competition.
The direction things are headed, I think Chrome will probably continue to pick up a bigger market share, I think every new browser to enter the scene will be built on Chromium, and I think Chromium browsers will continue to implement features and APIs faster than other orgs can keep up, especially with Microsoft's engineers joining the repo.
I see, your argument is about making the most out of an unstoppable situation. I honestly don't think Firefox will ever switch (though it worries me that a part of their funding comes from Google paying them to default to Google search). I guess we'll live to see. There's always something happening in tech.
Maybe we'll end up using WebAssembly like Java Applets and the browser won't even matter anymore. Kidding :D
Seriously speaking: I agree that the "mono engine" scenario is better than having broken sites on different sites but as I don't see Firefox switching, I really have no idea what Apple would do with Safari mobile. They, unless they've changed it recently, have a policy in place where all the browsers ported to iOS have to use Apple's browser engine. Firefox for iOS sucks for that very reason ;)
As a small aside, I think the advancement of TWAs in the Google Play Store (Trusted Web Activities, basically a way to package a PWA into an Android app)
You're making my argument for Google being a double edged sword for the web. What happens if devs start making Android only PWAs (even saying that sounds too much of a mono culture to me)? Are they really going to ignore all iOS devices just because Google has a better track record in regards to catering to web developers?
My hope is that this could actually strengthen the appeal of Firefox, since privacy advocates no longer have to choose between a browser that keeps their data safe and a browser that works. Best case scenario, they begin gaining users again, gaining donors, increasing their resources, and ultimately increasing their influence on the standards process.
Got it. What happens to all the work they've done with Firefox Quantum, Servo, Rust and so on?
Is the Mozilla scenario I just suggested likely?
I guess it depends on how much Google decides to push and how little Microsoft and Apple decide to counterbalance. It sure is gloomy for Firefox market shares right now. In the meantime, I'll keep using it because it's a damn good browser and I'm rooting for the underdog that gave us Rust :)
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You're making my argument for Google being a double edged sword for the web.
Indeed, that was my point! I totally agree with your concerns about a Google-controlled web.
What happens to all the work they've done with Firefox Quantum, Servo, Rust and so on?
Yeah, unfortunately the majority would hit the floor, no question. That's an enormous bummer, no question. But I'd hope that at least some of the principles used to build Quantum could be applied to improve parts of the future browser engine, just like what the Edge team is doing with their improvements to Chromium's scrolling and touch support.
Are we sure we're really choosing? Far from invoking theories of being in a simulation or issues of true freedom but... well, the tech we choose is (for the most part) the result of the environment we have around...
Hey listen, I'm no metaphysical libertarian. You wanna talk determinism, compatibilism, or any other philosophy of mind, jump in my DMs, I'm all about that 😎
I see, your argument is about making the most out of unstoppable situation. I honestly don't think Firefox will ever switch...
Yeah... probably not. I don't what to do with that. To be honest, as some others have said in the comments, I'd much rather see Firefox become the basis of a shared browser engine anyway; the only reason I posed this in terms of Chromium is because it's currently winning the war by, like, a lot. I honestly don't know if Mozilla would ever go for it.
I agree about the discussion worth, my argument was mainly about the fact that it might not actually matter, because it wouldn't probably be binding.
That's certainly true. A big outstanding flaw of my proposed future is that as long as Google continues to have majority influence over the engine, they can basically take it where they want. And if control were to be ceded to an independent foundation (which is already an enormous assumption), Google could still at any point get frustrated that their PRs and merge requests aren't being accepted and fork Chrome back off again. And I don't know what to do about that.
And if control were to be ceded to an independent foundation (which is already an enormous assumption), Google could still at any point get frustrated that their PRs and merge requests aren't being accepted and fork Chrome back off again.
Yep
And I don't know what to do about that.
There would be nothing to do about that, except change browser but at that point there would be fewer options and we would be back at square one essentially ahhaa.
BTW another aspect is that even if tomorrow all browser would choose a single engine we'd have to support the existing ones for years :(
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I agree about the discussion worth, my argument was mainly about the fact that it might not actually matter, because it wouldn't probably be binding. It's totally not the same thing but you just reminded me of the Paris Climate agreement. I don't have the tools to have a definite opinion on that but I know as a citizen of this Earth that if you make an agreement that sovereign countries have no obligation to respect and if they don't (see the US) nothing happens, well, the result is just a feel good utopia, to borrow your word because people can go their separate ways without consequences.
Are we sure we're really choosing? Far from invoking theories of being in a simulation or issues of true freedom but... well, the tech we choose is (for the most part) the result of the environment we have around and has consequences for the end users (though I know what you mean and probably the following analogy shouldn't be used here because we both understand each other). The analogy is Electron, I know people like to bash on it and I'm sorry to use it again, but if my tech choice means that I'm going to shave off 500mb of the RAM of a person that might have only 4GB, well that's a choice that has an impact. The same way a badly written website might have megabytes of JS that have a real impact on users (and this would happen even in the "universal engine" scenario).
I see, that's true but at the same time, are you stuck because you don't have access to that API or are you stuck because the lack of that new API impedes your ability to deliver a good UX to the user? After all we didn't have many of the "Chrome only" APIs until the day before they were announced and we were mostly fine. I don't want to sound like a luddite because I'm not but not every technological advancement is needed, sometimes it's just because developers like us have found a better or smarter way to accomplish something we were already doing the day before.
I totally subscribe the argument of productivity though, APIs and abstractions help us deliver products faster and that's important.
True that but if Microsoft doesn't plan to release a new operating system, then "what comes with the box" for existing customers is a sailed ship if they've already switched to Chrome. Unless MS plans an aggressive marketing campaign I don't see a person happy with Chrome switching back. An entirely different argument is to be made for people who purchase new computers, but even that might be unpredictable (maybe they have an Android phone and they want to sync bookmarks ;-)). We'll see.
I would honestly be glad to see Edge Chromium (even if in my heart I would have preferred an Edge Servo) raise in stats, because of the reasons mentioned before about competition.
I see, your argument is about making the most out of an unstoppable situation. I honestly don't think Firefox will ever switch (though it worries me that a part of their funding comes from Google paying them to default to Google search). I guess we'll live to see. There's always something happening in tech.
Maybe we'll end up using WebAssembly like Java Applets and the browser won't even matter anymore. Kidding :D
Seriously speaking: I agree that the "mono engine" scenario is better than having broken sites on different sites but as I don't see Firefox switching, I really have no idea what Apple would do with Safari mobile. They, unless they've changed it recently, have a policy in place where all the browsers ported to iOS have to use Apple's browser engine. Firefox for iOS sucks for that very reason ;)
You're making my argument for Google being a double edged sword for the web. What happens if devs start making Android only PWAs (even saying that sounds too much of a mono culture to me)? Are they really going to ignore all iOS devices just because Google has a better track record in regards to catering to web developers?
Got it. What happens to all the work they've done with Firefox Quantum, Servo, Rust and so on?
I guess it depends on how much Google decides to push and how little Microsoft and Apple decide to counterbalance. It sure is gloomy for Firefox market shares right now. In the meantime, I'll keep using it because it's a damn good browser and I'm rooting for the underdog that gave us Rust :)
Sorry if it took me a while to respond :-)
Indeed, that was my point! I totally agree with your concerns about a Google-controlled web.
Yeah, unfortunately the majority would hit the floor, no question. That's an enormous bummer, no question. But I'd hope that at least some of the principles used to build Quantum could be applied to improve parts of the future browser engine, just like what the Edge team is doing with their improvements to Chromium's scrolling and touch support.
Hey listen, I'm no metaphysical libertarian. You wanna talk determinism, compatibilism, or any other philosophy of mind, jump in my DMs, I'm all about that 😎
Yeah... probably not. I don't what to do with that. To be honest, as some others have said in the comments, I'd much rather see Firefox become the basis of a shared browser engine anyway; the only reason I posed this in terms of Chromium is because it's currently winning the war by, like, a lot. I honestly don't know if Mozilla would ever go for it.
That's certainly true. A big outstanding flaw of my proposed future is that as long as Google continues to have majority influence over the engine, they can basically take it where they want. And if control were to be ceded to an independent foundation (which is already an enormous assumption), Google could still at any point get frustrated that their PRs and merge requests aren't being accepted and fork Chrome back off again. And I don't know what to do about that.
Yep
There would be nothing to do about that, except change browser but at that point there would be fewer options and we would be back at square one essentially ahhaa.
BTW another aspect is that even if tomorrow all browser would choose a single engine we'd have to support the existing ones for years :(