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Discussion on: Can We Stop Pretending Planning Software Development Can Be “Certain”?

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serhuz profile image
Sergei Munovarov

Just stop treating estimates as deadlines and you'll be fine.

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Sean Crossey

Yeah, this is the only answer needed really.

Estimate your work, double it, tell management as a guideline that when you'd like to be finished.

After 2 weeks (or however long your sprint is) estimate again.

Couple this with daily stand ups and estimations are fine.

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sqlrob profile image
Robert Myers

The old joke estimate, which seems to come out accurate more often than it should is to double the it, then up the units by one (e.g 2 days => 4 weeks)

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Nicolas Bousquet

Exactly. I remember that in FogBuzz for example (JIRA/Bugzilla alternative), they method to size is to ask people to divide work in small tasks of a few day as much and to provide who did the sizing.

When the work is done, people have to put in the actual time spent on the task. Once you used the system for some time, it has a database on size for most people and the actual spent associated to it.

So when you size new projects containing many sub tasks the system is able to provide you with a gaussian curve of probability to be finished by that time. This seems more reasonable.