Yes. You're exactly right.
Our intuition is terrible for this stuff.
For example, my boss and I often have different perceptions about how well a marketing initiative is performing or how profitable something is. He sees things from his side and I see them from mine. But, in the cases where we have data to analyze, we often find out we were both wrong.
It's exciting and frustrating at the same time but I'm sure glad I took those stats courses in university.
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