In my opinion, Elon Musk is always overoptimistic on deadlines, and under-delivers on quotas.
If you ignore his deadline estimates and production capacity goals, then expectations can be set to something reasonable.
That being said, I'm not negative on Elon Musk. I just take what he promises with an extraordinarily large grain of salt. And, I enjoy my Tesla model S. ;-)
I'm a small business programmer. I love solving tough problems with Python and PHP. If you like what you're seeing, you should probably follow me here on dev.to and then checkout my blog.
The self-driving car? I think it will take significantly longer to develop that technology than their estimates. I liken it to John McCarthy's prediction on how easy the AI problem will be to solve; or how we're merely 10 years away from sustainable fusion energy (and have been for, oh, about 7 decades now). I expect that there will delay after delay after delay, for a long time.
Their production quotas falling far short of their promises? That will erode stockholder confidence, which will impact their market cap.
I'm a small business programmer. I love solving tough problems with Python and PHP. If you like what you're seeing, you should probably follow me here on dev.to and then checkout my blog.
I agree that the estimates will keep slipping. When I started thinking about writing this post, I started imagining the kind of ML/AI you would need to deal with the uncommon things I've experienced in my driving career. And the more scenarios I recalled/imagined, the more difficult the requirements for the car became.
So I think it's going to be something like the first 99% will take 5% of the effort. And the last 1% will take the other 95%.
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In my opinion, Elon Musk is always overoptimistic on deadlines, and under-delivers on quotas.
If you ignore his deadline estimates and production capacity goals, then expectations can be set to something reasonable.
That being said, I'm not negative on Elon Musk. I just take what he promises with an extraordinarily large grain of salt. And, I enjoy my Tesla model S. ;-)
You're not worried that this is all going to end very badly for Tesla?
The self-driving car? I think it will take significantly longer to develop that technology than their estimates. I liken it to John McCarthy's prediction on how easy the AI problem will be to solve; or how we're merely 10 years away from sustainable fusion energy (and have been for, oh, about 7 decades now). I expect that there will delay after delay after delay, for a long time.
Their production quotas falling far short of their promises? That will erode stockholder confidence, which will impact their market cap.
Both, I suppose.
I agree that the estimates will keep slipping. When I started thinking about writing this post, I started imagining the kind of ML/AI you would need to deal with the uncommon things I've experienced in my driving career. And the more scenarios I recalled/imagined, the more difficult the requirements for the car became.
So I think it's going to be something like the first 99% will take 5% of the effort. And the last 1% will take the other 95%.