xG vs Actual Goals: Analysis of the Opening 2 Matches
How well does Expected Goals (xG) explain actual results?
1. Overview
Using data from UEFA Women’s EURO 2025, which kicked off on July 2, 2025,
I personally collected and analyzed the information to create my own data-driven content.
Expected Goals (xG) quantifies the quality of shots to evaluate attacking efficiency.
However, actual goals do not always align perfectly with xG.
In this analysis, we examine the differences through the first two matches of the UEFA Women’s EURO 2025.
2. Data Sources
- UEFA.com
- Flashscore Match Statistics
3. Match Summary
| Match | xG (By Team) | Score | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇸 Iceland vs 🇫🇮 Finland | ICE 1.49 – FIN 0.82 | 0 - 1 | ❌ xG-favored team lost |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland vs 🇳🇴 Norway | SWI 0.97 – NOR 1.78 | 1 - 2 | ✅ xG-favored team won |
4. Key Metrics Comparison
| Team | Shots | On Target | xG | Goals | xG/Shot | Goal Conv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 13 | 4 | 1.49 | 0 | 0.11 | 0% |
| Finland | 16 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 0.05 | 6.3% |
| Switzerland | 17 | 7 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.06 | 5.9% |
| Norway | 8 | 3 | 1.78 | 2 | 0.22 | 25% |
🔸 Norway showed high efficiency despite fewer shots
🔸 Iceland had many chances but struggled to finish
5. Key Insights
- xG shows the "possibility" of scoring but does not guarantee the result
- Iceland vs Finland: High xG but poor finishing and a red card at 58 minutes led to defeat
- Switzerland vs Norway: Efficient attacking with fewer shots but higher xG
6. Visualization and Explanation
6-1) xG vs Actual Goals Scatter Plot
Description:
Shows the relationship between Expected Goals (xG) and Actual Goals. Points close to the y=x diagonal indicate that the actual scoring matches the expectation. In the opening matches, Iceland had a high xG but no actual goals, while Norway scored more than expected despite fewer shots.
6-2) xG per Shot Bar Chart
Description:
Shows the expected goals per shot for each team. Norway recorded overwhelmingly high efficiency, indicating high quality of scoring chances.
6-3) Shooting Accuracy (SOT / TS) Bar Chart
Description:
Shows the ratio of shots on target to total shots for each team. Switzerland and Finland demonstrated high shooting accuracy.
6-4) xG to Goal Efficiency Bar Chart
Description:
Shows the ratio of actual goals to expected goals, where Norway had the highest efficiency.
6-5) Radar Chart Comparing Teams
Description:
Radar chart visualizing normalized key metrics like Goals, xG, Shots on Target (SOT), Ball Possession (BP), and Passes to compare teams. It clearly shows differences in team attacking and playing styles.
7. Conclusion
xG is more of a tool to understand the context of a match rather than a strict predictor.
In short-term tournaments like the opening matches, multiple factors affect outcomes, so interpreting various metrics together is crucial.
Nevertheless, xG remains a valuable metric for analyzing long-term performance.
From a Beginner’s Perspective
As a beginner in sports data content creation, I’m using this project as a hands-on learning opportunity to develop my skills.
My goal is to build a portfolio that reflects my growing expertise and analytical approach.
I hope that professionals in the field will find my work insightful and consider me a potential candidate for future opportunities.
I would greatly appreciate any feedback to help me improve further.
You can check out the full code and data on my GitHub repository: https://github.com/k-eunji/weuro_xg
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