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How do you estimate the annual maintenance cost of a custom software application?

I’m curious how developers and engineering teams usually budget for post-launch maintenance. Do you calculate maintenance as a percentage of the original development cost, or estimate it based on factors such as:

Bug fixes and technical debt
Security patches
Server/cloud infrastructure
Dependency and framework updates
Performance optimization
Minor feature changes

What approach has worked well for estimating yearly maintenance costs on real-world projects?

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