Home field is a real edge and a small one next to an exponent of 17.
Take a team that wins 90 percent at home and 75 percent on the road, with nine home games and eight away. If the weeks are independent, a perfect season is 0.90 to the 9th times 0.75 to the 8th. That is roughly 0.4 percent. The home streak is the easy half. The road product is what empties the right tail.
This is why "unbeaten at home" is a different claim from "unbeaten." A draft that spends every slot on dome traits or crowd-proof specialists is tuning one slice of the card. The away weeks stay in the product.
I check it by drafting a short all-time lineup and replaying the full card, not the home half. The free browser version is 17-0 Game. Move one road-week assumption and the undefeated rate shifts more than the home win rate does.
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