GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
YouTube walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4
This is part 1 of an updated 5-part series on the live abrownfox001 engine.
- Part 1 — Why specialize in BTC 5-minute markets (this post)
- Part 2 — TWAP60 as the settlement target
- Part 3 — The private signal stack
- Part 4 — Slot lifecycle: enter, scratch, redeem
- Part 5 — Public evidence, risks, and what stays closed
Live profile: @abrownfox001
Wallet: 0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b
Active since: Jan 12, 2026
The Market Everyone Treats as Noise
Polymarket BTC 5-minute Up/Down books sit near 50¢ because short-horizon direction looks almost random.
That is why most builders do one of three things:
- Skip 5-minute markets
- Chase the last CEX tick
- Leave the mid-band and farm 94–99¢ tickets instead
I took the opposite route.
The engine is a single-market specialist:
- BTC
- 5-minute clock
- coin-flip band
- official Chainlink TWAP as the target
- scratch decaying tickets
- redeem only the high-conviction book
Public sample from the README: ~99% BTC, ~96% 5-minute, ~90.6% of fills in 45–55¢.
Why 5 Minutes, Not Everything
A 5-minute slot is a complete trading problem that repeats 288 times a day.
That clock gives you:
- enough independent trials to measure process
- a short enough horizon that last-tick folklore used to dominate
- a long enough horizon, after TWAP60, that a path forecast can exist
- capital recycling if you scratch instead of marrying every fill
Politics, long-dated books, and multi-asset spray are different businesses. This repo is not trying to be those businesses.
Why Not 99¢ Farming
| Convergence farm | abrownfox001 | |
|---|---|---|
| Zone | 94–99¢ | 45–55¢ |
| Edge | Near-certainty × volume | TWAP-path forecast + culling |
| Exit | Hold almost everything | Scratch weak / redeem strong |
| Binding constraint | Fees and inventory | Signal, latency, fill quality |
Resolved sample in the docs (150 markets near 50¢, Jul 2026):
- Held-side win rate 60.7% (91W / 59L)
- ROI on capital at resolution ≈ +24.5%
- Average held entry ~0.50
Those numbers describe the filtered book that reached settlement. They are not a promise that every fill is a 61% event.
The Three Jobs That Have to Work Together
- Calibrated 5m signal — live TWAP versus slot-open reference
- Fair-value entry — mean ~0.503, clips $50–175, median buy ~47s after open
- Conviction cull — ~930 sampled markets bought and sold near the same price
Miss any one and 50¢ trading is coin-flipping minus costs.
What Changed the Product
Before August 2026, a last-second wick could decide a 5-minute market.
Now those markets settle on a 60-second Chainlink TWAP. The repo is named for that world: twap60-prediction-trigger-system.
The bot is not built to fight the new rule. It is built to forecast the number the venue actually pays.
What Is Public
- Live profile and wallet
- Session walkthrough video
- Windows binary:
Abrownfox001.exe(2-day trial) - TypeScript shell:
engine.ts,twapFeed.ts,signal.ts,clob.ts,markets.ts
What stays closed: the calibrated probability. The repo is the architecture, not a drop-in replica of the live read.
What Part 2 Covers
The settlement target in detail:
- why 60s TWAP replaced the snapshot
- why open pinning must use the same series
- why CEX last price is only lead-lag
If that layer is wrong, nothing in parts 3–5 can save the book.
Links
- Repo: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
- Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4
- Live activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
Not financial advice. Short-horizon markets are high-risk. Paper or micro-size first.
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
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