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pr0biex

Posted on Originally published at probiex.gumroad.com

Your revenue goal is not a plan. Here is the arithmetic that makes it one.

A revenue goal copied from someone else's screenshot is not a plan. It is a wish with a deadline.

The missing step is between the money and the calendar: how many customers, at what price, with what churn, inside the hours you actually have. Skip that step and the plan dies in February, when the first month does not look like the average.

Start with the money you need

Most annual plans start with a revenue target someone else picked. Start with your life instead.

Take the owner pay you need to take home. Add the business expenses that do not move. Then set aside a tax reserve before you spend anything. The revenue need is the sum, grossed up for the reserve.

With $60,000 in owner pay, $12,000 in expenses, and a 30% tax reserve, the revenue need is about $102,857 for the year, or $8,571 a month.

That is the number the business has to cover. Not a number a screenshot told you to want.

Solve for customers, not revenue

Revenue is an output. The inputs are average revenue per customer, churn, and the number of new customers you can add each month.

At $50 a month per customer, $102,857 a year is not 2,057 customers. It is 2,057 customer-months before services. The workbook first subtracts $12,000 of planned services revenue, leaving $90,857 of product revenue, or 1,817 customer-months. Spread across a year that starts with 40 customers and loses 5% of them every month, the constant number of new customers that makes the 12-month total equal the target is 23 a month. That ends the year at 233 customers and $11,650 in monthly recurring revenue.

The difference between 23 new customers a month and 2,057 customers is the difference between a plan and a panic.

The constraint most plans skip: hours

A customer count is not a capacity plan. If each customer takes 1.5 hours a month and you have 30 hours a week, you can carry about 86 customers. The default plan ends at 233, which is 2.7 times the hours you actually have.

That is not a failure. It is the plan doing its job before the year starts. The fix is not more evenings. It is a price change: at $100 a month per customer, the same target needs about 9 new customers a month and ends at 104 customers, which fits the 30-hour week at 1.2 times capacity.

Move the price or move the target. Do not move your sleep.

Why a yearly plan needs a weekly review

A yearly number gets checked once, in December, which is the worst possible time to find out.

A Friday review takes fifteen minutes: customers added, customers lost, hours spent, and whether next week still points at the number. Weekly, the correction is small. You notice in week three that you added one customer, not three, and you change one thing. Yearly, the correction is a lost year.

Where to start

The 2027 Solo Business Plan is the workbook behind the math above. It starts from owner pay, expenses, and tax reserve, then solves for new customers per month, year-end MRR, traffic, and capacity. It includes a Notion build spec and a printable weekly review.

https://probiex.gumroad.com/l/solo-business-plan-2027

FAQ

Do I need to know my churn before I start? No. Use a conservative estimate, then replace it with the real number after the first month. The workbook shows how much the answer moves when churn changes.

Do I need Notion? No. The XLSX workbook is the model and does the math. The Notion spec is there if you want a dashboard.

What if I sell services as well as products? The workbook subtracts planned services revenue before it solves for product customers, so the customer count is not inflated by hours you have already sold.

Last updated October 2026 ยท Probiex.

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