The population of Kazakhstan is approximately 20.5 million as of March 2026, according to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan (stat.gov.kz). Despite being the 9th largest country in the world by land area (2,724,900 km²), Kazakhstan is one of the most sparsely populated nations on Earth, with just 7.5 people per square kilometer.
This guide covers everything about the Kazakhstan population: historical growth, ethnic composition, city populations, age structure, migration trends, and projections through 2050, all backed by data from the World Bank, United Nations Population Division, and Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics.
Kazakhstan Population at a Glance (2026)
Before diving into the details, here is a snapshot of where Kazakhstan stands demographically. These figures draw on the World Bank World Development Indicators and the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics (stat.gov.kz).
| Statistic | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total population | 20.5 million (Mar 2026) | Bureau of National Statistics |
| Population density | 7.5 per km² | World Bank |
| World rank by population | 64th | UN Population Division |
| Annual growth rate | 1.4% | World Bank (2023) |
| Urban population | 60.1% | Bureau of National Statistics |
| Rural population | 39.9% | Bureau of National Statistics |
| Median age | 31.0 years | UN Population Division |
| Life expectancy | 74.4 years | World Bank (2023) |
| Literacy rate | 99.8% | UNESCO |
| Sex ratio | 0.95 males per female | Bureau of National Statistics |
| Fertility rate (TFR) | 3.13 children per woman | Bureau of National Statistics (2023) |
To understand how sparse Kazakhstan really is, consider these population density comparisons:
| Country | Area (km²) | Population | Density (per km²) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 2,724,900 | 20.5M | 7.5 |
| Mongolia | 1,564,116 | 3.4M | 2.2 |
| Australia | 7,692,024 | 26.8M | 3.5 |
| Canada | 9,984,670 | 40.4M | 4.0 |
| Russia | 17,098,242 | 144.2M | 8.4 |
| Germany | 357,022 | 84.5M | 237 |
| South Korea | 100,210 | 51.7M | 516 |
Kazakhstan is less dense than Russia, but far emptier than any European or East Asian country. If you want to understand where Kazakhstan is geographically and why it feels so vast, that context helps explain these numbers.
Historical Population Growth: From 1900 to 2025
Kazakhstan's population history has been turbulent, shaped by famine, forced settlement, Soviet industrialization, mass deportations, nuclear testing, independence-era emigration, and a 21st-century baby boom.
| Year | Population | Key Event |
|---|---|---|
| 1900 | ~4.0 million | Nomadic Kazakh population under Russian Empire |
| 1911 | ~5.0 million | Pre-WWI growth |
| 1926 | ~6.2 million | First Soviet census |
| 1932 | ~3.5–4.0 million | Asharshylyk famine, 1.5–2.3 million Kazakhs died (38% of the Kazakh population) |
| 1939 | ~6.1 million | Partial recovery + Russian/Ukrainian settlers arrive |
| 1959 | ~9.3 million | Virgin Lands campaign floods Kazakhstan with 1.5M settlers |
| 1970 | ~13.0 million | Industrial migration continues |
| 1979 | ~14.7 million | Steady Soviet-era growth |
| 1989 | ~16.5 million | Soviet peak, Kazakhs are a minority (40%) in their own republic |
| 1994 | ~16.0 million | Post-independence emigration begins |
| 1999 | ~14.9 million | Post-Soviet low point, 2 million Russians and Germans emigrate |
| 2009 | ~16.0 million | Recovery driven by Kazakh birth rate + Oralman returns |
| 2019 | ~18.8 million | Steady 1.5% annual growth |
| 2024 | ~20.0 million | Reached 20 million milestone |
| 2025 | ~20.2 million | Reached 20.2 million milestone |
| 2026 | ~20.5 million | Current estimate (Mar 2026) |
Sources: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics; UN World Population Prospects 2024; Demoscope Weekly.
The 1930s Famine (Asharshylyk)
The most catastrophic demographic event in Kazakhstan's history was the Soviet-induced famine of 1930-1933, known in Kazakh as Asharshylyk. Forced collectivization and sedentarization of nomadic Kazakhs caused the death of an estimated 1.5 to 2.3 million ethnic Kazakhs, roughly 38% of the entire Kazakh population. Another 600,000–1 million Kazakhs fled to China, Mongolia, and other Soviet republics. The Kazakh population did not fully recover to its pre-famine level until the 1960s.
The 1990s Population Collapse
Kazakhstan's population fell by 1.6 million people between 1989 and 1999, from 16.5 million to 14.9 million. Three forces drove this decline:
- Mass emigration of Russians and Germans: Approximately 1.5–2 million ethnic Russians and 800,000 ethnic Germans left Kazakhstan for Russia and Germany respectively, responding to economic collapse and growing Kazakhization policies
- Emigration of Ukrainians, Greeks, Jews, and other Soviet-era settlers for similar reasons
- Economic crisis: The transition from a planned to market economy caused GDP to fall by 40%, devastating living standards and suppressing birth rates
Since 2000, Kazakhstan has recovered and surpassed its Soviet-era population peak, growing at a rate that surpasses most post-Soviet states. This growth is closely tied to the Kazakhstan economy, which expanded rapidly on the back of oil revenues from 2000 to 2015.
Ethnic Composition of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in Central Asia, a legacy of Soviet-era deportations, industrial migration, and the Virgin Lands campaign. The culture of Kazakhstan reflects this multi-ethnic reality, blending Kazakh, Russian, Uzbek, Uighur, Korean, and other traditions.
| Ethnicity | % (2024) | Population | % at Independence (1989) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhs | 70.7% | ~14.3M | 40.1% | +30.6% |
| Russians | 14.9% | ~3.0M | 37.4% | -22.5% |
| Uzbeks | 3.3% | ~670K | 2.0% | +1.3% |
| Ukrainians | 1.4% | ~280K | 5.4% | -4.0% |
| Uighurs | 1.5% | ~300K | 1.1% | +0.4% |
| Tatars | 1.1% | ~220K | 2.0% | -0.9% |
| Germans | 0.9% | ~180K | 5.8% | -4.9% |
| Koreans | 0.6% | ~120K | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Turks | 0.5% | ~100K | , | New |
| Other | 5.1% | ~1.0M | 5.6% | -0.5% |
Source: Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, 2024 data; 1989 Soviet Census.
Why so diverse? The Soviet government used Kazakhstan as a dumping ground for "unreliable" peoples:
- 1937–1944 forced deportations: Koreans from the Soviet Far East (172,000), Volga Germans (444,000), Chechens, Ingush, Crimean Tatars, Meskhetian Turks, and Poles were forcibly relocated to Kazakhstan
- 1950s Virgin Lands campaign: Khrushchev sent 1.5 million Russian and Ukrainian settlers to farm the northern steppe
- Soviet industrial migration: Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians staffed mines, factories, and railroads across the republic
The Shrinking Russian Minority
The demographic shift of the Russian population in Kazakhstan is one of the most dramatic ethnic changes in post-Soviet history.
| Year | Russian Population | % of Total | Cumulative Emigration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | ~6.2 million | 37.4% | , |
| 1999 | ~4.5 million | 30.0% | ~1.7 million left |
| 2009 | ~3.8 million | 23.7% | ~2.4 million left |
| 2019 | ~3.5 million | 18.4% | ~2.7 million left |
| 2024 | ~3.0 million | 14.9% | ~3.2 million left |
At independence in 1991, ethnic Russians comprised 37.4% of Kazakhstan's population, nearly equal to the Kazakh share of 40.1%. Kazakhstan was the only Soviet republic where the titular nationality was a minority. Today, Russians are just 14.9% and concentrated primarily in northern Kazakhstan (Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar oblasts) and in major cities in Kazakhstan like Almaty and Astana.
The Russian share continues to decline through emigration (accelerated after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine), lower Russian birth rates compared to Kazakhs, and the ongoing Oralman program that brings ethnic Kazakhs into the country.
Top 10 Cities by Population
Kazakhstan's urban population is concentrated in a few major centers. The three largest cities alone hold nearly a quarter of the country's total population.
| Rank | City | Population (2024) | Region | Notable Feature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almaty | 2,300,000 | Southeast | Financial capital, largest city |
| 2 | Astana | 1,350,000 | North-central | Political capital since 1997 |
| 3 | Shymkent | 1,200,000 | South | Third city, industrial hub |
| 4 | Aktobe | 550,000 | West | Oil and gas center |
| 5 | Karaganda | 510,000 | Central | Soviet-era mining city |
| 6 | Taraz | 450,000 | South | Ancient Silk Road city |
| 7 | Semey | 340,000 | East | Near former nuclear test site |
| 8 | Pavlodar | 340,000 | Northeast | Industrial center |
| 9 | Oskemen | 330,000 | East | Metallurgy hub |
| 10 | Atyrau | 280,000 | West | Oil capital of Kazakhstan |
Source: Bureau of National Statistics, akimat (city government) data, 2024.
Almaty dominates as Kazakhstan's economic engine. Its metropolitan area, including suburban Almaty Oblast, houses roughly 4 million people, nearly 20% of the national population. The city's population has grown by 50% since 2000, fueled by rural-to-urban migration from southern Kazakhstan.
Astana has been the fastest-growing city since it became the capital in 1997, when its population was just 300,000. It has grown more than fourfold in 27 years, largely through government relocation and construction-driven migration.
For a deeper look at each city's character and what to expect, see our guide to cities in Kazakhstan.
Age Structure and the Youth Bulge
Kazakhstan has a relatively young population compared to Europe and East Asia, though it is aging faster than its Central Asian neighbors.
| Age Group | Percentage | Population | Comparison (Germany) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 years | 27.4% | ~5.5M | 13.8% |
| 15–24 years | 13.2% | ~2.7M | 10.1% |
| 25–54 years | 39.8% | ~8.0M | 38.9% |
| 55–64 years | 10.4% | ~2.1M | 16.0% |
| 65+ years | 9.2% | ~1.9M | 21.2% |
Source: UN Population Division, 2024 estimates.
Key demographic indicators:
- Birth rate: 21.5 per 1,000 (2023), well above replacement level and the highest in Central Asia outside Tajikistan
- Death rate: 7.8 per 1,000 (2023)
- Natural growth rate: 13.7 per 1,000 (1.37% annually)
- Total fertility rate (TFR): 3.13 children per woman (2023), up from 2.5 in 2015, partly due to government pro-natalist policies
Kazakhstan's population pyramid is expansive at the base, meaning more children and young adults than elderly. This youth bulge is strongest in southern oblasts (Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Zhambyl), where ethnic Kazakh families average 3–4 children, and weakest in northern oblasts with aging Russian-majority populations.
The ethnic Kazakh birth rate is significantly higher than the Russian birth rate within Kazakhstan, which is the primary driver of the increasing Kazakh share of the population, even without factoring in emigration.
Population Distribution: Empty North, Dense South
Kazakhstan's population distribution is extremely uneven. The question of whether Kazakhstan is in Europe or Asia matters here because the northern, sparsely populated steppe feels geographically European, while the dense, rapidly growing south is unmistakably Central Asian.
Densely Populated Regions
| Region | Population | Density (per km²) | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almaty city | 2.3M | 2,929 | Megacity |
| Turkestan Oblast | 2.1M | 13.5 | Rural, fast-growing, youngest |
| Almaty Oblast | 2.1M | 13.2 | Suburban + agricultural |
| Shymkent city | 1.2M | 1,500+ | Dense urban |
| Astana city | 1.35M | 1,680 | Capital, fast-growing |
| Zhambyl Oblast | 1.1M | 7.8 | Agricultural south |
Sparsely Populated Regions
| Region | Population | Density (per km²) | Character |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulytau Oblast | ~220K | 0.6 | Steppe, emptiest region |
| Mangystau Oblast | ~760K | 4.6 | Desert/oil, Caspian coast |
| Karaganda Oblast | ~1.35M | 3.5 | Vast central steppe |
| Kostanay Oblast | ~840K | 4.0 | Northern agricultural steppe |
| Aktobe Oblast | ~920K | 3.0 | Western steppe |
The central Kazakh steppe, the heartland of the country, has population densities of 0.5 to 2 people per km², comparable to Mongolia or the Australian Outback. You can drive for hours on the highway between Astana and Karaganda and see nothing but grassland and sky.
Education and Human Capital
Soviet-era investment gave Kazakhstan a strong educational foundation that persists today. The literacy rate of 99.8% is among the highest in the world, according to UNESCO.
Key education statistics (Bureau of National Statistics, 2023):
- Higher education enrollment: 620,000+ students across 120+ universities
- Tertiary attainment (age 25–64): 41%, higher than the OECD average of 40%
- Languages of instruction: Kazakh (64% of students), Russian (32%), English (4%)
- Government education spending: 4.5% of GDP (World Bank, 2022)
Major educational initiatives:
- Nazarbayev University (Astana, founded 2010): Fully English-medium with international faculty from MIT, Cambridge, and other top universities. Produces Kazakhstan's tech and policy elite
- Bolashak Scholarship Program: Since 1993, over 13,000 Kazakhstanis have studied at top universities abroad (UK, US, Germany, Japan) on government scholarships, with mandatory return-to-work requirements
- Trilingual education policy: Since 2016, Kazakhstan has been transitioning schools to teach in Kazakh, Russian, and English, an ambitious but controversial reform
The education system is one reason Kazakhstan scores higher on the Human Development Index (0.811, "very high") than any other Central Asian country. For context, this places Kazakhstan between Mexico and Serbia on the UN's HDI ranking.
Migration Trends: Emigration, Oralman, and the 2022 Russian Influx
Migration is one of the most dynamic forces shaping Kazakhstan's population. Three overlapping trends define the current picture.
Ongoing Emigration
Kazakhstan experiences a steady outflow of skilled workers and young professionals. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, approximately 32,000 people emigrated permanently in 2023. Primary destinations:
- Russia: Ethnic Russians returning or relocating (~60% of emigrants)
- Germany: Ethnic Germans using Spätaussiedler (late repatriate) status
- Canada, South Korea, US: Increasingly popular among young Kazakhstanis
- Turkey: Growing student and professional migration
The Oralman (Ethnic Kazakh Repatriation) Program
Since 1991, Kazakhstan has encouraged ethnic Kazakhs living abroad to "return" to their ancestral homeland. These returnees are called Oralman (Kazakh: "returnees"). The program offers:
- Free land and housing subsidies
- Cash payments (a lump sum of approximately $700–1,500 per person)
- Simplified citizenship process
Oralman arrivals by source country:
| Source Country | Approximate Total (1991–2024) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | ~400,000 | Largest source |
| China (Xinjiang) | ~250,000 | Kazakh diaspora in western China |
| Mongolia | ~120,000 | Bayan-Ölgii Kazakhs |
| Turkmenistan | ~80,000 | , |
| Russia | ~70,000 | , |
| Other | ~80,000 | Tajikistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey |
| Total | ~1,000,000+ | , |
Source: Kazakhstan Ministry of Labor and Social Protection; Committee on Migration.
The Oralman program has been strategically significant: it has helped increase the Kazakh share of the population and partially offset the emigration of Russians and Germans.
The Post-2022 Russian Influx
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and subsequent mobilization in September 2022 triggered a massive wave of Russian relocation to Kazakhstan. Estimates vary:
- Initial influx (2022): 200,000–400,000 Russians entered Kazakhstan
- Stayed long-term (2023–2024): Estimated 50,000–100,000 remain
- Profile: Predominantly young, tech-sector, well-educated males aged 20–40
- Impact cities: Almaty (primary destination), Astana, Kostanay
This influx boosted rental housing demand (Almaty rents rose 30-50% in 2022-2023), increased the customer base for IT services, and complicated Kazakhstan's diplomatic balancing act between Russia and the West. Many Russians have since moved on to Georgia, Turkey, or returned to Russia.
Nuclear Testing and the Semipalatinsk Health Legacy
No discussion of Kazakhstan's population is complete without addressing the Semipalatinsk Test Site (known as "The Polygon"), where the Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests from 1949 to 1989, including 116 atmospheric detonations.
Key facts:
- Location: Near the city of Semey (formerly Semipalatinsk), East Kazakhstan
- Affected population: An estimated 1.5 million people were exposed to radioactive fallout (Kazakh Institute of Radiation Medicine)
- Health impacts: Elevated rates of cancer (especially thyroid, lung, stomach), cardiovascular disease, birth defects, immune deficiencies, and mental health disorders in surrounding communities
- Area contaminated: ~18,500 km², roughly the size of Kuwait
- Test site closure: February 29, 1991, one of the first acts of Kazakhstan's sovereignty, championed by the anti-nuclear Nevada-Semipalatinsk movement
The city of Semey (population 340,000) and surrounding villages continue to report health effects into the third generation. Kazakhstan's government provides special health benefits and early retirement to registered "nuclear test victims," though critics say support remains inadequate.
This nuclear legacy was a major reason Kazakhstan voluntarily gave up the world's fourth-largest nuclear arsenal after independence, the largest voluntary nuclear disarmament in history.
Population Projections to 2050
The United Nations World Population Prospects (2024 revision) projects Kazakhstan's population trajectory as follows:
| Year | Projected Population | Growth Rate | Median Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.2 million | 1.4% | 31.0 |
| 2026 | 20.5 million | 1.4% | 31.2 |
| 2030 | 21.8 million | 1.2% | 31.9 |
| 2035 | 23.3 million | 1.1% | 32.8 |
| 2040 | 24.6 million | 0.9% | 33.8 |
| 2045 | 25.7 million | 0.7% | 35.0 |
| 2050 | 26.5 million | 0.5% | 36.3 |
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant.
Key projections:
- Kazakhstan's population is expected to reach 26.5 million by 2050, a 31% increase from today
- Growth will slow gradually as urbanization increases and fertility declines
- The median age will rise from 31 to 36, still young by European standards (Germany: 47 in 2050)
- The Kazakh ethnic share is projected to exceed 80% by 2050, as the Russian minority continues to age and emigrate
- Urbanization will reach 70%+ as rural Kazakhstanis continue migrating to Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent
Challenges Ahead
- Aging northern regions: North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and Pavlodar oblasts face depopulation as young people move south
- Water scarcity: Population growth in the south is straining water resources, particularly the Syr Darya basin
- Housing pressure: Almaty and Astana face housing shortages and affordability crises
- Brain drain: Despite the Bolashak program, many of Kazakhstan's best-educated young people emigrate permanently
Despite these challenges, Kazakhstan's demographic outlook is far more favorable than most post-Soviet states. Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic states face population decline; Kazakhstan is one of the few post-Soviet countries with sustained, healthy population growth.
How Kazakhstan's Population Compares to Neighbors
For regional context, here is how Kazakhstan stacks up against its Central Asian neighbors and key comparator countries:
| Country | Population (2026) | Growth Rate | Median Age | Density (per km²) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 20.5M | 1.4% | 31.2 | 7.5 |
| Uzbekistan | 36.4M | 1.5% | 28.7 | 86 |
| Tajikistan | 10.3M | 2.0% | 23.5 | 72 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 7.2M | 1.6% | 27.0 | 36 |
| Turkmenistan | 6.5M | 1.3% | 28.3 | 13 |
| Russia | 144.2M | -0.3% | 39.6 | 8.4 |
| Mongolia | 3.4M | 1.3% | 28.8 | 2.2 |
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024.
According to the World Bank, Kazakhstan has the highest GDP per capita of any Central Asian country ($13,500 nominal, 2023) and the highest Human Development Index (0.811), which partly explains why it attracts labor migrants from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan rather than losing workers like its poorer neighbors.
Last verified: March 2026
Originally published on about-kazakhstan.com
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