The Recognition-Primed Decision Model
Gary Klein studied firefighter commanders with 20 years on the line.
Their decisions didn't look like rational choice theory.
They sized up the situation. Recognized a pattern. Simulated one option mentally. If it worked, they acted.
80% of fireground decisions: under 60 seconds. No option comparison. No cost-benefit.
What this means for builders
Expertise = pattern library × simulation speed
The leverage isn't learning more frameworks. It's building the pattern library through deliberate exposure to edge cases, then compressing the simulation loop through repetition and feedback.
Source: Klein, Calderwood & Clinton-Cirocco (1985), Recognition-Primed Decision model. USDA Forest Service fireground command studies.
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