Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
Telegram: https://t.me/abrownfox001
Parts 1–4 were the specialist contract: one book, 50¢ entries, scratch the weak tickets, wait when the clock or the ask says no.
Part 5 is how you know the live process still matches that contract.
Do not start by retuning P(up). Start with the tape everyone else can already see.
The audit commands
Wallet: 0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b
curl "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-profile?address=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b"
curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b&limit=1000"
Also just read: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
P&L for one afternoon is not the test. Shape is the test.
Healthy shape
- BTC 5m is still the core
- most fills still in 45–55¢
- buys exist without a sell on every market — some tickets redeem
- sells exist — scratches are real
- sells land later than buys
- clip sizes stay boring
- same-market round trips sit near a zero spread
- no sudden 99¢ farm, no sports spray, no close-bell dump
That shape is the public proof of Parts 1–4.
Unhealthy shape
- entries walking to 60–70¢
- almost no sells (hold-everything)
- all size in the last 20 seconds
- one slot many times normal clip size
- scratch spreads of 2–4¢ as a habit
- random non-BTC volume becoming the book
Any of those means the process broke. Changing signal weights will not fix a missing price cap or a dead scratch rule.
What to change when the tape breaks
| Tape | Fix |
|---|---|
| Prices too high | restore the 45–55¢ gate |
| No sells | restore decay → scratch |
| Late-only size | restore the slot clock |
| Double clips | fix intent_id / fill reconcile |
| Random tickers | delete the extra markets |
| Stale-looking bursts | halt-on-stale, not a new model |
The private layer is the TWAP → P(up) map.
The public layer is the only layer you should debug first.
Series close
A specialist Polymarket bot is not a dashboard with twenty markets.
It is one sentence you can still defend after a bad day:
TWAP-anchored 5m BTC direction, bought near 50¢, scratched when belief dies, skipped when the clock or the book is unclean.
If the public tape still says that, leave the model alone.
If it does not, do not add features. Put the gates back.
Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first.
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
#Polymarket #TradingBot #TWAP #BTC #AlgoTrading #RiskManagement #PredictionMarkets
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