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ABROWNFOX001

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Evidence, Limits, and the Private Layer

GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system

YouTube walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4

Parts 1–3 covered design, TWAP60, and execution.

Part 4 is what you can verify — and what you should not expect from the public repo.

Live profile: @abrownfox001

Wallet: 0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b

Public Sample

Resolved book (150 markets near 50¢)

Metric Value
Held-side win rate 60.7% (91W / 59L)
ROI at resolution ≈ +24.5%
Avg held entry ~0.50

Activity window (~5,000 trades)

Metric Value
BTC / 5m share ~99% / ~96%
45–55¢ fills ~90.6%
Buy / sell 72.9% / 27.1%
Median clip ~$58
Scratch round-trips ~930 at ~0 spread
Median buy / sell ~47s / ~226s

This supports a style claim: mid-band directional engine with active culling.

It does not prove lifetime audited PnL, future months, or that cloning src/ reproduces 60.7%.

Economics

At entry ( p \approx 0.50 ) and held win rate ( w ):

[
EV \approx 0.50 \times (2w - 1)
]

At ( w = 0.607 ), naïve EV ≈ +10.7% of stake per resolved ticket.

Sample ROI can print higher because winners are often bought a bit under 0.50 and losers are scratched before $0.

Risks After TWAP60

  1. No real signal → coin-flip minus costs
  2. Latency / adverse selection
  3. Regime decay and crowded 5m books
  4. Thin-book “breakeven” scratches that are not breakeven
  5. Silent 30s / snapshot leftover vs live 60s settlement
  6. Sample-window overconfidence

Public vs Private

Public: architecture, execution shell, wallet, video, Windows trial, TypeScript modules.

Private: calibrated 5m probability, live thresholds, feature weights.

That split is the point. Publishing the signal competes the edge away. Publishing the shell stops people from rebuilding the dumb mistakes.

Verify 

curl "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-profile?address=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b"
curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b&limit=1000"
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Plus the activity tab and the walkthrough video.

If You Rebuild the Shell

  1. Stream 60s TWAP
  2. Pin open from the same series
  3. Score continuously
  4. Enter only in 45–55¢ when edge exists
  5. Scratch decay
  6. Redeem winners
  7. Log window, open TWAP, final TWAP, resolution source

Without your own alpha, that shell is disciplined coin-flipping.

Series Recap

  1. Specialist BTC 5m engine, not a 99¢ farm
  2. Target is live TWAP60, not CEX last
  3. Execution edge is stagger + re-score + scratch
  4. Public data shows style; the live read stays closed

One line:

Forecast the official TWAP path, buy it only near fair value, and refuse to carry weak tickets to resolution.

Links

Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first.

If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001

My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity




**Tags:** `#Polymarket #BTC #TWAP #TradingBot #PredictionMarkets #Chainlink`
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