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Part 1 said run one book.
Part 2 is the price band that makes that book viable.
Most 5-minute bots do not die from a bad BTC call. They die from paying 58–65¢ for a thought that was only worth expressing at 50¢.
Two different games
| Style | Zone | Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Convergence farm | 94–99¢ | tiny clip × huge volume |
| Favorite chase | 58–70¢ | “it already looks right” |
| This account | 45–55¢ | calibrated direction × fair entry |
@abrownfox001 is the third game.
At (p \approx 0.50), held-to-resolution EV is roughly:
[
EV \approx 0.50 \times (2w - 1)
]
A 60% held-side win rate at 50¢ is about +10% of stake before scratches.
The same 60% read bought at 62¢ is close to noise after fees and a few bad scratches.
Direction without a price cap is not a strategy. It is a mood.
Favorite price is not confirmation
When Up is 61¢, the book is already saying Up is more likely. That is not extra information for a TWAP model. That is the crowd mid.
Legal question:
P(up) vs ask
not
P(up) vs 0.50 ignoring the ask
P(up) = 0.58 against a 58¢ ask is no trade.
P(up) = 0.58 against a 49¢ ask can be a clip.
If the fair zone is gone, wait. The slot still has minutes. Chasing turns a specialist into a late taker on someone else’s conviction.
How the tape should look
Public fills on this wallet cluster in 45–55¢ on purpose.
- early seconds: book often thin → wait
- 30–150s: main accumulation if ask stays fair
- after that: add less, scratch more
- last 30s: no new thesis
A sudden pile of 60¢+ takes means the cap was removed. That is a process break, not “more confidence.”
One rule
No trusted signal may lift a price outside the band.
The model can still print P(up).
The engine does not have to obey it.
Fair value is how a 5m specialist stays solvent while generalist bots pay for the favorite and call it momentum.
Part 3: why the scratch — not the entry — is what makes the resolved book look better than raw accuracy.
Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first.
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
**Relevant Hashtags/Tags:**
Polymarket #TradingBot #TWAP #BTC #FairValue #AlgoTrading #PredictionMarkets
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