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ABROWNFOX001
ABROWNFOX001

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Late-September Operating Checklist

GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system

YouTube walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4

Live profile: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001

Parts 1–4 said the patch window is over, TWAP leftovers still bite, fill quality has to be re-measured after 150ms, and new surfaces are not the 5m core.

Part 5 is the checklist I actually run against.

Wallet: 0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b

1. The Machine That Has to Stay the Same 

BTC 5m
60s Chainlink TWAP vs open
enter 45–55¢
re-score 10–30s
scratch decay / redeem strength
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If public fills stop looking like that, the checklist failed before any config flag did.

2. Green Lights Every Slot

  • [ ] window_seconds = 60
  • [ ] twap_open pinned from the same series as twap_now
  • [ ] RTDS observation is fresh, not just connected
  • [ ] CEX mid is lead-lag only
  • [ ] ask in 45–55¢ before send
  • [ ] taker_delay_ms = 150 assumed
  • [ ] no cancel planned inside the delay window
  • [ ] Retry-After honored
  • [ ] per-slot cap not breached
  • [ ] resolution_src written at the end

A missing field is a failed slot, not a “soft warning.”

3. Logs That Decide Whether to Touch Thresholds 

slot_id
twap_open / twap_now / twap_end
feed_age_ms
P(up)              # internal
ask / fill
t_signal / t_submit / t_fill
rate_limit_hits
scratch_spread
scratch_or_redeem
resolution_src
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Retune only from post-Aug 14 TWAP60 slots and post-Sept 4 delay slots.

Older notebooks are a different venue.

4. What I Will Change

  • freshness fail-fast on RTDS
  • delay-aware fill metrics
  • less cancel churn
  • scratch skip when 50¢ depth is gone
  • threshold refit after a clean post-delay sample
  • Data API reconcile vs local memory

5. What I Will Not Ship

  • Combos inside engine.ts
  • agent auto-trade as the production path
  • 15m / Kalshi weights on the 5m model
  • snapshot or 30s leftovers in production
  • more assets to hide a weaker BTC read
  • size increases off one good week

The public shell can stay a TypeScript + Windows-trial reference.

The live P(up) stays closed.

6. Outside Checks on the Live Account

Re-read the activity tab the same way as before:

  • still ~BTC 5m?
  • still mid-band?
  • still later sells than buys?
  • still same-market flat exits?
  • still not a close-bell cluster?

Verify independently:

curl "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-profile?address=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b"
curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b&limit=1000"
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Style can be inspected.

The July 150-market 60.7% window is not a September audit.

7. Series Recap

  • Part 1: The patches are the floor now
  • Part 2: Mixed TWAP windows and stale RTDS still fake edge
  • Part 3: 150ms + rate tiers show up in fill and scratch quality
  • Part 4: Combos and agents stay outside the 5m core
  • Part 5: Operate the specialist loop; log it; refuse distractions

One line:

Forecast the official 60s TWAP path, buy it only near 50¢, scratch the weak tickets, and treat every new platform surface as optional until the slot log is clean.

Links

Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first. Rules and delays can move again.

If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001

My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity

#Polymarket #TWAP #BTC #TradingBot #AlgoTrading #PredictionMarkets #Chainlink #QuantTrading
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