Live Walkthrough: @abrownfox001 BTC 5-Minute Directional Engine on Polymarket

I published a short live session of the bot in action:

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1uHfg29ixI

The recording shows the real Polymarket interface and the system running against live BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets. Below is the strategy context behind what you see on screen.

What the System Does

BTC 5-minute Up/Down books usually sit near ~50¢. Most participants treat them as pure noise.

This engine treats them as a short-horizon forecasting problem aligned with Chainlink TWAP — the same settlement reference Polymarket now uses.

Core loop visible in the session:

Stream the official TWAP feed
Compare live TWAP path against the slot-open reference
Generate a calibrated directional probability
Enter only in the fair 45–55¢ band when edge is present
Continuously re-score the position
Scratch near breakeven when conviction decays
Hold only higher-conviction legs to resolution

Design Principles You Can See in the Video

Mid-band entries

The bot avoids 94–99¢ convergence farming. It prefers the coin-flip zone where fees are less punishing and a true directional edge can still matter.

Active culling

Not every entry is held. Weak or decaying signals are flattened. The positions that reach settlement are a filtered subset of the original signals.

Settlement alignment

Signal and resolution both target the TWAP process, not a single last-second tick. This became essential after Polymarket moved crypto short-duration markets to time-weighted settlement.

Specialization

Almost all activity is concentrated on BTC 5-minute markets. The system is intentionally narrow.

Public Sample Context

From earlier resolved-market samples (entries near 50¢):

Held-side win rate around 60%+
Positive ROI on the capital that actually reaches settlement
Majority of fills inside the 45–55¢ band

These figures describe the filtered held book, not every temporary position.

Open Reference Implementation

TypeScript structure (Node 18+):

twapFeed.ts — Chainlink TWAP stream via RTDS
signal.ts — P(up) vs slot-open reference
engine.ts — full slot lifecycle (enter → hold → scratch → redeem)
clob.ts — CLOB v2 order handling

Standalone Windows binary is also available for evaluation. The calibrated signal itself remains private.

Repo: https://github.com/abrownfoxbot/abrownfox-trading-system

Important Caveats

Short-horizon prediction markets remain high-risk
TWAP window changes (30s → 60s on 5m markets) directly affect any system built on the official feed
Latency, fill quality, and regime shifts still matter
Past sample results are not a guarantee of future performance

Paper trade or micro-size first.

Polymarket #BTC #TWAP #TradingBot #AlgoTrading #PredictionMarkets #Chainlink

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