GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
YouTube walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4
Part 1 used the public footprint to rule out two fake identities: 99¢ farmer and hold-everything script.
Part 2 asks the forensic question that actually decides whether the bot is current or obsolete:
Which settlement series would produce mid-band, mid-slot BTC 5m activity after August 2026?
Live profile: @abrownfox001
1. Three Possible Targets
An outsider does not need the private model. They only need to know what Polymarket pays.
| Candidate target | What a bot optimized for it should look like |
|---|---|
| CEX last tick / snapshot close | Activity piles into the final seconds; wicks matter |
| 30-second TWAP | Still short-window, leftover from the first TWAP cutover |
| 60-second Chainlink TWAP | Path-following through the slot; last-tick clustering should fade |
Current 5-minute crypto Up/Down markets settle on 60-second Chainlink TWAP.
Open reference and close should come from that same family.
If an account still behaves like a snapshot sniper, the README can say “TWAP” all day. The fills will give it away.
2. What Snapshot Bots Look Like From Outside
A last-tick bot leaves a signature:
- entries concentrated in the final 10–20 seconds
- size appearing when one CEX wick is in progress
- little mid-slot work
- almost no reason to buy at t=47s and still be managing the ticket at t=226s
The public abrownfox001 window does not look like that.
Median buy ~47 seconds after open.
Median sell ~226 seconds after open.
Most activity sits in the 30–270s band, not the close bell.
That is the footprint of a path process, not a close auction.
3. Why 30s vs 60s Still Matters
The repo’s older module comments mention a 30-second window. Live 5m markets moved to 60 seconds.
From outside, that mismatch is the tell you should hunt:
- a 30s-trained bot stays twitchier
- a 60s-aligned bot should re-score a smoother official path
- mixing a 30s open with a 60s close creates silent label error
The public name is the admission: twap60-prediction-trigger-system.
The engineering test is whether twapFeed.ts and live slot logs actually pin the same 60s series at open and close.
4. Reconstruct the State an Outsider Should Demand
For every slot, a TWAP-aligned engine must store:
twap_open = 60s Chainlink TWAP at slot start
twap_now = latest 60s Chainlink TWAP
t_left = seconds remaining
resolution_src = rtds_twap | gamma
If those fields are missing from logs, you cannot audit the bot.
You can only watch it trade and hope the story is true.
CEX mid can exist as lead-lag. It cannot be the thing that decides Up vs Down.
5. The Inference From Parts 1 and 2 Combined
Part 1 said: mid-band specialist with scratches.
Part 2 adds: that style is coherent only if the target is a live official average, not a close print.
mid-slot buys
+ mid-band prices
+ later scratches
+ 5m BTC concentration
= path-following TWAP engine
≠ last-tick sniper
≠ 99¢ farmer
That is still an inference. It is a better inference than taking “we use TWAP” at face value.
6. Failure Mode This Post Is Designed to Catch
The most common post-August bot:
- keep the old CEX-direction trigger
- subscribe to RTDS so the README looks current
- never pin open from the 60s series
- still label research on snapshot close
Public fills will eventually show it: late clustering, violent flip sensitivity, or a model that “worked” until the 60s window went live.
7. What Part 3 Covers
If TWAP60 is the target, the next outsider question is the signal.
You cannot see the weights.
You can see constraints the weights must satisfy:
- mid-band only
- thresholded, not every twitch
- CEX allowed as lead-lag, not as settlement
- time-in-slot has to matter
That is the next post.
Links
- Repo: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
- Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4
- Live activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
Not financial advice. Always read the live market’s official resolution source.
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
#Polymarket #TWAP #Chainlink #BTC #TradingBot #AlgoTrading #PredictionMarkets
Top comments (0)