Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
Telegram: https://t.me/abrownfox001
Part 3 said most slots should be skips.
Part 4 is how you check that without the private weights.
@abrownfox001 publishes fills, not SKIP reason=... logs. That is enough. The activity feed is a delayed unit test for the whole stack: TWAP target, 50¢ band, scratch policy, halt rules.
Pull the tape
curl "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-profile?address=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b"
curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b&limit=1000"
Do not start with P&L. Start with shape.
Pass / fail checks
| Test | Pass | Fail |
|---|---|---|
| Product | BTC 5m is the book | Sports / spray / random longs |
| Band | Most entries 45–55¢ | Cluster at 60–70¢ or 94–99¢ |
| Timing | Buys earlier, sells later | All size in last 20s |
| Cull | Same-market buy+sell near 0 spread | Almost no sells, or 3¢ scratch leaks |
| Size | Boring $50–175 clips | One slot eats the day |
| Style | Directional specialist | Sudden 99¢ farm |
If three of those fail in a week, the code drifted or the gates were bypassed. A green day of P&L does not override a red tape.
What you cannot see — and what that implies
The tape will not show:
- skipped slots
- TWAP age at decision time
trusted=false- rate-limit warnings that blocked a clip
So a quiet hour can be health (skips working) or death (process down).
That is why local logs still need reason. The public feed tests the trades that escaped. The private log tests the trades that should never have existed.
Use both. Trust neither alone.
How I read a bad week
- Did entries walk up in price? → execution chasing, not signal
- Did sells vanish? → cull disabled
- Did late-slot size explode? → clock rule broken
- Did non-BTC share jump? → specialist contract broken
- Did scratches start paying a spread? → flatten is now a fee
Fix the first broken test. Do not add ETH 5m to “diversify” a process that already failed its own unit tests.
Part 5: how to scale clip size without changing the bot.
Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first.
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
#Polymarket #TradingBot #TWAP #BTC #AlgoTrading #PredictionMarkets #RiskManagement
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