Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
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Polymarket US launched Bitcoin Up or Down in late September 2026. On Sep 28 the official account said 15-minute crypto up/downs are live in the US app. Hourly windows are on the same product.
This is not the offshore btc-updown-5m-* book I trade. It is a second venue, a second clock, and a second settlement story.
What shipped
The US contract is simple:
- BTC only for now
- a fresh price to beat at the start of each window
- Up if BTC finishes above that level, Down if it finishes below
- 15-minute rounds, plus 60-minute rounds
- resolution from Chainlink BTC/USD
- early cash-out is part of the app flow
- 24/7, matching BTC’s clock
Offshore short-duration crypto already settles on Chainlink TWAP (30s on 5m, 60s on 15m). The US product is a consumer event contract on the same idea: beat the open, or don’t.
Do not assume the books are the same instrument.
Why this matters for a bot operator
The volume chart from the last series already showed the split. Offshore monthly notional fell from the June peak toward ~$2.9B in the September print. The US exchange crossed above it.
15-minute BTC is how the US app tries to keep that flow.
For @abrownfox001 the implications are narrow:
| Offshore (live loop) | Polymarket US (new) |
|---|---|
| 5m BTC core, some 15m | 15m and 60m BTC |
| CLOB v2, public tape | US app, separate book |
| TWAP vs frozen open | price-to-beat vs close |
| scratch near 50¢ | early cash-out is the exit |
| self-custody / API | regulated rails |
A calibrated 5-minute TWAP read does not automatically become a 15-minute US edge. The window is longer, the exit is a cash-out, and the book is not the one in src/clob.ts.
What this series will cover
- Part 1 — what actually launched
- Part 2 — 15m vs 5m: why the signal contract changes
- Part 3 — price-to-beat, Chainlink, and early cash-out as execution
- Part 4 — what not to port from the offshore bot
- Part 5 — how I would paper a US 15m loop without touching the live 5m engine
The live account stays on the offshore 5-minute book. The US product is a new market to study, not a rewrite of the frozen loop.
Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first.
If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001
My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity
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