ABROWNFOX001

Posted on Sep 10

What I Am Changing in abrownfox001

GitHub: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system

YouTube walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4

Live profile: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001

Parts 1–4 mapped the venue.

Part 5 is the implementation plan. What stays. What gets patched. What I will not build just because Polymarket shipped it.

Wallet: 0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b

1. What Does Not Change

The live engine is still a specialist:

BTC
5-minute clock
official TWAP path vs open
entries in 45–55¢
re-score every 10–30s
scratch decay
redeem the filtered book

Public sample context from the README still describes that style: mid-band fills, later sells than buys, held-side resolved book around 60.7% on a 150-market window. That is style evidence, not a September guarantee.

The calibrated P(up) stays private.

The TypeScript shell stays public.

2. Already Done: Settlement Alignment

After the August cutovers:

Item	Status
Target series	60s Chainlink TWAP, not snapshot
Open pin	same 60s family as live score
Feed	RTDS in `twapFeed.ts`
Stale TWAP	skip slot, do not fall back to CEX last
Labels	official path / gamma fallback

This was the non-negotiable patch. Mixing 30s open with 60s close is still the silent killer I see in forks.

3. Now In Progress: Execution After Sept 4

The matching layer moved:

crypto taker delay 50ms → 150ms
volume-tier CLOB limits already live
cancel-during-delay is not a free undo

What I am changing in the live loop:

Config carries taker_delay_ms = 150 instead of folklore
Log signal-time, submit-time, fill-time separately
Re-fit entry and scratch thresholds on post-Sept 4 slots only
Cut cancel churn; honor Retry-After
Treat thin 50¢ books as “no scratch,” not “force flat”
Keep per-slot caps so one delayed fill cannot eat the book

The state machine stays. The timing constants do not.

4. Observability I Want on Every Slot

slot_id
twap_open
twap_now
t_left
P(up)          # private internally
ask / fill
delay_ms
rate_limit_hits
resolution_src
scratch_or_redeem

Without that row, you cannot tell whether a bad week was:

signal decay
150ms delay
stale RTDS
thin-book scratch tax
mixed TWAP windows

July notebooks are not a post-delay audit.

5. What I Am Explicitly Not Building

Combos / RFQ inside engine.ts
a 15-minute Kalshi fork sharing 5m weights
perps
agent auto-trade via Exa Connect as the production path
snapshot-close revival
“more assets” as a substitute for a weaker BTC 5m read

New surface ≠ new core.

If Combos get a research adapter later, it will be a separate codebase with a separate risk cap.

6. Expected Near-Term Tech Work

This month

delay-aware execution metrics
rate-limit backoff that does not stall the slot loop
RTDS reconnect + freshness hard-fail
post-cutover scratch retune

Next

keep Gamma discovery on live 5m slugs
Data API reconciliation vs local position memory
refuse slots when official series is missing
leave agent connectors as clients of the engine

Never as a shortcut

share P(up) weights
skip paper after a venue rule change
scale size off one good week

7. How to Read the Live Account After These Updates

Use the same outsider checks:

still BTC 5m?
still 45–55¢?
still later sells than buys?
still same-market flat exits?
still not clustering only at the close bell?

If those break, the machine changed. The blog post would be the last place that news should appear.

Verify:

curl "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-profile?address=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b"
curl "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?user=0x12b712029efeee7efc4066e98e4e1b6beb8b1b0b&limit=1000"

8. Series Recap

Part 1: Settlement, matching, and access all moved in the same season
Part 2: Pin 60s TWAP or you are forecasting a retired number
Part 3: 150ms delay + rate tiers tax last-look taker spam
Part 4: Combos and agent APIs are adapters, not a 5m rewrite
Part 5: Keep the specialist loop; patch feeds, delay math, and logs

One line:

Forecast the official TWAP path, buy it only near fair value, and refuse to carry weak tickets — now with a 60s target and a slower taker gate.

Links

Repo: https://github.com/abrownfox0/abrownfox001-twap60-prediction-trigger-system
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzhugRL6BV4
Live activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity

Not financial advice. Paper or micro-size first. Rules and delays can move again.

If you have more questions, please feel free to contact me at any time: https://t.me/abrownfox001

My Polymarket Activity: https://polymarket.com/@abrownfox001?tab=activity


**Relevant Hashtags/Tags:**

Polymarket #TWAP #BTC #TradingBot #AlgoTrading #PredictionMarkets #Chainlink #QuantTrading

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