To determine the likelihood of Premier League teams winning matches in the 2024-2025 season, I analyzed match data from Football-Data.org API. I then filtered out only completed matches and calculated win probabilities using the formula:
Win Probability (%) = (Number of Wins / Total Games Played) × 100
The result gives the percentage of games a team has won, giving a clear indication of the form and competitiveness
🏆 Top Contenders: Who Will Likely Win the Most Games?
Using the calculated win probabilities, teams most likely to win games throughout the season are:
Liverpool FC
With a win probability of 63%, Liverpool tops the charts. Showing tactical discipline, pressing intensity and consistent attacking prowess. With formidable performances both home and away, Liverpool is expected to maintain their push for the title.Manchester City FC
With a win probability of 59%, Manchester City come a close second. This team is known for its dominance in possession and strategic flexibility thus remain a strong favorite to win their remaining games.Arsenal FC
Arsenal are placed third with a win probability of 56% maintaining a high win rate. Arsenal have a youthful yet matured squad and their structured defense and pressing game help them stay near the top of the table.Dark horses and mid table strength
Newcastle United, Brentford and Brighton also posted win probabilities above 40%, showing their consistency and ability to challenge bigger clubs. They might not win the title, but can easily cause an upset to a title contender on their day and subsequently shake up the race for the top four.
⚠️ Teams Struggling to Win
Clubs like Southampton FC, Ipswich Town FC and Leicester FC have the lowest win probabilities(below 20%). This suggests they are likely to struggle unless they significantly improve squad depth, tactics or morale. If this trend continues they face a real danger of struggling in a relegation battle.
Aside from just showing rankings, these win probabilities also show current form, tactical execution and consistency. High win probably teams usually; score more early goals, maintain better possession and tend to have strong defensive records. on the other hand, teams with low win probability can point to leaky defenses, poor finishing or tactical instability.
Statistics may not guarantee future outcomes, but teams with a higher win probability based on the data are statistically more likely to keep winning. Keeping an eye on these metrics throughout the season can help analysts and fans make smarter decisions.
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